云南省产业结构调整的碳减排潜力评估

发布时间：2018-04-09 07:55

本文选题：产业结构　切入点：碳排放　出处：《云南财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随大量生产活动排放的数量巨大的二氧化碳不断给全球气候变化蒙上阴影。大气中二氧化碳的迅速聚集会导致气温升高,这种影响扩散以后会破坏整个生态系统的平衡,有可能引发灾难性的后果。为了避免这一切就要控制二氧化碳排放量的增长。我国每年排放的二氧化碳在全球占到很大的份额,因此国际社会有强烈的动机不断向我国施加压力。我国正处于经济增长阶段,产业结构正在快速成长,而且我国粗放的经济增长方式也常受到人们的诟病,在这种增长方式下往往不会形成健康良性的经济结构。因此为了实现经济持续增长,就需要转变经济增长方式,调整产业结构,实现产业结构优化。这个过程意味着对资源进行重新配置,在提高经济效率的同时,也在提高能源效率,可以起到抑制碳排放的作用。本文以云南省的碳减排为目标,通过能源资源引导其他资源在行业间进行重新配置,引导产业结构调整,释放碳减排潜力。本文对云南省碳排放的影响因素进行了分解,发现碳排放的增加最主要的原因是经济增长对能源需求的持续增长,而技术进步、产业结构、能源结构都可以成为抑制碳排放的原因。技术进步已有明显的减排效果,而产业结构却没有明显的减排效果。像化学工业、非金属矿物制品业和金属产品制造业这3大部门是主要的耗能部门,因而也是碳排放的主要来源,它们在2014年云南省GDP中的比值是10.76%,排放的二氧化碳占总排放量的66.09%。虽然各个行业的产值与其碳排放的对应关系存在普遍差异,在很大程度上是由行业自身的技术特点所致,但存在像云南省这样产值和碳排放反差强烈的行业依然反映出产业结构不合理的问题。本文结合投入产出模型,考虑了调整产业结构以实现经济增长目标和减少能源消耗目标,研究了产业结构优化过程。通过对经济增长目标和能源消耗目标平等赋权将多目标规划模型转化为单目标规划模型。优化模型给出2016—2020年(“十三五”时期)的产业结构调整方案。经过产业结构调整,预测到2020年云南省第一产业在国民经济中的比重下降到9.86%,第二产业占国民经济的比重下降到40.34%,第三产业在国民经济中的比重将显著超过第二产业占到49.80%,成为云南省经济中的支柱产业。经济总量也从2012年的10309.4亿元增长到2020年的19283.9亿元。产业结构调整的节能减排潜力体现在整体经济能耗强度的降低。产业结构调整能够实现云南省整体能耗从2012年的每万元GDP消耗1.0120吨标煤下降到2020年的每万元GDP消耗0.6377吨标煤。能源强度下降36.99%。结果表明,云南省“十三五”期间消耗的总能源只有59035.3万吨标煤,如按2012年的能耗强度计算,可节约23543.13万吨标煤。可见产业结构调整有巨大的节能潜力。
[Abstract]:The massive amount of carbon dioxide emitted as a result of mass production continues to cast a shadow over global climate change.The rapid accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will lead to a rise in temperature, which will disrupt the balance of the entire ecosystem when it spreads, with potentially catastrophic consequences.In order to avoid all this, it is necessary to control the increase in carbon dioxide emissions.China's annual carbon dioxide emissions account for a large share of the world, so the international community has a strong incentive to constantly put pressure on our country.Our country is in the economic growth stage, the industrial structure is growing rapidly, and the extensive economic growth mode of our country is often criticized by people, under this kind of growth mode, the healthy and benign economic structure is often not formed.Therefore, in order to achieve sustained economic growth, it is necessary to change the mode of economic growth, adjust the industrial structure, and realize the optimization of industrial structure.This process means reconfiguring resources to increase economic efficiency as well as energy efficiency, which can play a role in curbing carbon emissions.This paper aims at carbon emission reduction in Yunnan Province, guides other resources to reconfigure among industries through energy resources, guides the adjustment of industrial structure, and releases the potential of carbon emission reduction.In this paper, the factors affecting carbon emissions in Yunnan Province are analyzed. The main reason for the increase of carbon emissions is the sustained growth of energy demand from economic growth, and technological progress, industrial structure.Energy mix can be a reason to curb carbon emissions.The technology progress has obvious emission reduction effect, but the industrial structure has no obvious emission reduction effect.Three major sectors, such as the chemical industry, the non-metallic mineral products industry and the metal products manufacturing sector, are the main energy-consuming sectors and therefore the main sources of carbon emissions.Their ratio to GDP in Yunnan Province in 2014 was 10.76 percent, with carbon dioxide emissions accounting for 66.09 percent of total emissions.Although the corresponding relationship between the output value of each industry and its carbon emissions is generally different, to a large extent, it is caused by the technical characteristics of the industry itself.But industries like Yunnan, where the contrast between output and carbon emissions are strong, still reflect the irrational structure of the industry.Based on the input-output model, this paper studies the process of industrial structure optimization by adjusting the industrial structure to achieve the goal of economic growth and reduce energy consumption.The multi-objective programming model is transformed into a single-objective programming model by equal empowerment of economic growth target and energy consumption goal.The optimization model gives the industrial structure adjustment scheme in 2016-2020 (the period of the 13th Five-Year Plan).After readjusting the industrial structure,It is predicted that by 2020, the proportion of the primary industry in the national economy of Yunnan Province will drop to 9.86, the proportion of the secondary industry to the national economy will drop to 40.34, and the proportion of the tertiary industry in the national economy will be significantly higher than that of the secondary industry at 49.80, which will become Yunnan Province.The pillar industry in the provincial economy.The total economic volume also increased from 1.03094 trillion yuan in 2012 to 1.92839 trillion yuan in 2020.The energy saving and emission reduction potential of industrial structure adjustment is reflected in the reduction of energy consumption intensity of the whole economy.The adjustment of industrial structure can reduce the total energy consumption of Yunnan province from 1.0120 tons of standard coal per 10,000 yuan of GDP in 2012 to 0.6377 tons of standard coal per 10,000 yuan of GDP in 2020.Energy intensity dropped by 36.99.The results show that the total energy consumption in Yunnan Province during the 13th Five-Year Plan period is only 590.353 million tons of standard coal, if calculated according to the energy consumption intensity in 2012, 235.4313 million tons of standard coal can be saved.Visible industrial structure adjustment has huge energy-saving potential.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F121.3;X322

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