基于系统动力学的光伏产业发展对策研究

发布时间：2018-08-07 11:57

【摘要】：在能源危机与气候变化的背景下,光伏产业作为未来提供能源供应的重要产业,一直是国内外新能源领域的研究热点。我国拥有丰富的太阳能资源,近些年在国家相关政策的大力扶持下,光伏产业作为我国的战略新兴产业发展迅速,但仍存在核心技术缺失、产能过剩、光伏发电成本过高及国内光伏应用市场尚未打开等发展问题,针对该现象,本文运用系统动力学的理论和方法对光伏产业进行研究,具有一定的理论和实践意义。首先,本文概述了我国太阳能资源的分布情况和应用潜力,介绍了我国光伏产业的结构模式、发展过程及相关扶持政策,并在此基础上总结了我国光伏产业的发展现状,剖析了我国光伏产业发展中存在的突出问题。其次,在分析光伏产业系统构成要素及各要素间因果关系的基础上,将光伏产业系统划分为二个子系统,分别为光伏产业子系统、产业发展环境子系统。利用Vensim PLE软件构建光伏产业系统动力学模型,并运用2007年-2012年的基础数据进行模型检验,论证模型的正确性和有效性。然后,通过调整不同变量的参数值,设计四种政策方案,有针对性地对光伏产业2007年—2020年的发展趋势进行了仿真模拟。仿真结果表明,在进行光伏产业的政策调控过程中,要注意综合考虑各因素对产业发展的作用效果,以提高国内市场需求的政策为主,增加资金投入和提高技术水平政策为辅,从而能够保证光伏产业长远稳定发展。最后,根据模拟仿真运行的结果,对我国光伏产业的发展提出了相应的对策和建议。通过提高国内光伏发电需求量,加强技术创新研发,完善产业扶持政策来促进我国光伏产业进一步发展。
[Abstract]:Under the background of energy crisis and climate change, photovoltaic industry, as an important industry to provide energy supply in the future, has always been a research hotspot in the field of new energy at home and abroad. China has abundant solar energy resources. In recent years, with the support of relevant policies, photovoltaic industry has developed rapidly as a strategic emerging industry in China, but there is still lack of core technology and overcapacity. The development of photovoltaic power generation is too high and the domestic photovoltaic application market has not been opened. In view of this phenomenon, this paper uses the theory and method of system dynamics to study the photovoltaic industry, which has a certain theoretical and practical significance. Firstly, this paper summarizes the distribution and application potential of solar energy resources in China, introduces the structure model, development process and related supporting policies of photovoltaic industry in China, and summarizes the current situation of photovoltaic industry in China. The prominent problems in the development of photovoltaic industry in China are analyzed. Secondly, on the basis of analyzing the elements of photovoltaic industry system and the causality between them, the photovoltaic industry system is divided into two subsystems, namely, photovoltaic industry subsystem and industry development environment subsystem. The system dynamics model of photovoltaic industry is constructed by using Vensim PLE software. The validity and validity of the model are verified by using the basic data from 2007 to 2012. Then, by adjusting the parameter values of different variables, four policy schemes are designed to simulate the development trend of photovoltaic industry from 2007 to 2020. The simulation results show that, in the process of policy regulation and control of photovoltaic industry, attention should be paid to the effects of various factors on the development of the industry. The policy of increasing domestic market demand should be given priority to, and the policy of increasing capital input and raising the level of technology should be supplemented. In order to ensure a long-term and stable development of photovoltaic industry. Finally, according to the results of simulation, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for the development of photovoltaic industry in China are put forward. In order to promote the further development of photovoltaic industry in China, the demand for photovoltaic power generation in China is increased, technological innovation and research and development are strengthened, and industrial support policies are improved.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F426.6;N941.3

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