移动支付用户使用意愿分析与预测研究

发布时间：2018-03-16 10:12

本文选题：移动支付　切入点：使用意愿　出处：《北京交通大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,电子商务飞速发展,手机渗透率不断升高,智能手机在人们生活中变得愈加重要,移动支付产业随之兴起并迅速发展,传统的基于PC终端的电子商务模式开始被基于移动终端的移动电子商务模式替代,大众生活逐渐走向"移动化"。在我国,移动支付的起步较晚,网上银行、手机银行的概念在进入21世纪后才开始相继出现,现阶段公众对于移动支付的认识仅仅停留在了解阶段;同时,我国拥有数量庞大的手机网民群体,在发展移动支付方面具有无可比拟的巨大优势。因此,探寻制约用户使用移动支付的诸多因素对于普及移动支付方式、增强用户粘性具有非常重要的现实意义。本研究以消费者视角为基础对移动支付用户使用意愿进行研究。文章首先对国内外相关学者的研究进行总结,将技术接受模型(TAM)作为研究模型的主框架,将创新扩散理论与感知风险理论融入理论模型,确定了以感知有用性、感知易用性、兼容性、消费者创新性以及感知风险因素为直接影响因素的理论模型,同时考虑到不同性别、年龄的用户人群对移动支付的接受能力问题,因此笔者将人口统计因素加入用户使用意愿影响因素模型中,探讨其与模型中各影响因素的作用关系,整理后得到论文的最终模型框架并对各因素之间的相关关系做出假设。随后,文章根据理论模型确定测量指标与测量量表,形成调查问卷,使用滚雪球法在各社交网络平台(微信、QQ、豆瓣等)对调查问卷进行大规模发放,最后对回收数据进行分析。本文使用SPSS软件对每条影响路径进行相关分析、方差分析等,以验证变量间关系,最终找出对用户使用意愿影响显著的因素。最后笔者基于决策树理论,以用户使用意愿为预测变量,使用SPSS Modeler软件对影响用户移动支付使用意愿的各因素进行决策树分析,得出决策树模型与关联规则,形成可读性较强的分类规则,最终实现对使用意愿的判断预测。最后,本文根据验证模型结果从不同角度探究用户使用行为的出发点及作用机制,从运营商的角度思考如何提高用户的移动支付业务使用意愿并提出相关意见和建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of electronic commerce and the increasing penetration of mobile phones, smart phones have become more and more important in people's lives, and the mobile payment industry has been rising and developing rapidly. The traditional electronic commerce mode based on PC terminal has been replaced by the mobile electronic commerce mode based on mobile terminal. In 21th century, the concept of mobile banking began to appear one after another. At this stage, the public's understanding of mobile payment is only at the stage of understanding. At the same time, China has a large number of mobile phone users. Mobile payment has unparalleled advantages in the development of mobile payment. Therefore, exploring the factors that restrict users to use mobile payment is of great importance to the popularization of mobile payment. It is of great practical significance to enhance user stickiness. This study is based on the consumer perspective to study the user's willingness to use mobile payment. Firstly, this paper summarizes the research of domestic and foreign scholars. The technology acceptance model (TAM) is taken as the main frame of the research model, and the innovation diffusion theory and the perceived risk theory are integrated into the theoretical model to determine the perception of usefulness, perceived usability, compatibility. A theoretical model of consumer innovation and perceived risk factors as direct factors, taking into account the receptivity of users of different genders and ages to mobile payments. Therefore, the author adds demographic factors to the model of influencing factors of user's willingness to use, and probes into the relationship between them and the influencing factors in the model. After finishing, the final model framework of the paper is obtained and the correlation among the factors is hypothesized. Then, according to the theoretical model, the measurement index and the measurement scale are determined, and the questionnaire is formed. Using snowball method to distribute the questionnaire on various social network platforms (WeChat QQ, Douban, etc.), and finally to analyze the recovery data. This paper uses SPSS software to analyze each influence path, such as correlation analysis, variance analysis, etc. In order to verify the relationship between variables, finally find out the factors that have a significant impact on the user's willingness to use. Finally, based on the decision tree theory, the author takes the user's willingness to use as the predictive variable. The decision tree model and association rules are obtained by using SPSS Modeler software to analyze the factors that affect the user's willingness to use mobile payment, and the classification rules with strong readability are formed. Finally, the judgment and prediction of the user's willingness to use are realized. Finally, the decision tree model and the association rules are obtained. According to the results of the verification model, this paper explores the starting point and mechanism of user's use behavior from different angles, considers how to improve the user's willingness to use mobile payment service from the point of view of the operator, and puts forward some relevant opinions and suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F724.6;F274;F832.2

【引证文献】