基于混沌理论的社会互动对服务容量决策有效性影响研究

发布时间：2018-09-08 07:35

【摘要】：众所周知,在能源、通信、运输、餐饮、主题公园、酒店等服务型企业中,需求通常遵循着波峰波谷的波动模式。在高峰时期,需求由于服务容量的限制不能被完全满足;在低谷时期,过多的服务容量又会导致人力物力的浪费。因此,很多企业采用基于需求的服务容量分配决策来缓解需求波动带来的影响,从而提高资源利用率并提高盈利能力。然而,当顾客的购买决策受到社交互动的影响时,这种决策的有效性可能会随之减弱。本文根据这种基于需求的服务容量分配决策,研究了在社会互动存在时,关于可重复购买的服务的需求过程动态系统。在本文的假设中,顾客是具有自适应前瞻性的,并且已有顾客的重新购买决策是基于前瞻性形成的期望效用与保留效用的。同时,潜在顾客通过与已有顾客的社会互动被吸引而购买服务。我们将需求过程的特点用一个二维动力系统描述出。实验结果表明,需求系统的均衡点可能是存在不稳定性的。在实验过程中,对于给定的保留效用分布函数,我们首先分析社会互动和顾客自适应前瞻性行为在各种场景下的均衡点的稳定性,然后使用分叉图和Lyapunov指数来表征其混沌特性。结论说明,需求过程可能是稳定的,也可能是存在周期性的,甚至可能是混沌的。这意味着基于需求的服务容量分配决策的有效性可能受到社会互动以及顾客自适应前瞻性行为的影响而降低。论文最终的结果突出说明为了使基于需求的服务容量分配策略有效,公司在制定决策时必须考虑社会互动以及顾客前瞻性行为的影响。此外,服务型企业应该努力在需求过程中占主导地位,通过自己的决策来引导顾客做出相应的选择,在需求系统不稳定时,这比被动地根据顾客的需求量再进行服务容量的调整更奏效。
[Abstract]:As we all know, in energy, communications, transportation, catering, theme parks, hotels and other service enterprises, demand usually follow the wave mode of wave trough. During the peak period, the demand can not be completely satisfied because of the limitation of service capacity; in the low period, too much service capacity will lead to the waste of manpower and material resources. Therefore, many enterprises adopt demand-based service capacity allocation decisions to mitigate the impact of demand fluctuations, thereby improving resource utilization and profitability. However, when the customer's purchase decision is affected by social interaction, the effectiveness of the decision may diminish. Based on the decision of capacity allocation of services based on demand, this paper studies the dynamic system of demand process for repurchased services when social interaction exists. In the assumption of this paper, the customer is self-adaptive and forward-looking, and the customer's repurchase decision is based on the prospective expected utility and retention utility. At the same time, potential customers are attracted to buy services through social interactions with existing customers. We describe the characteristics of the demand process with a two-dimensional dynamic system. The experimental results show that the equilibrium point of the demand system may be unstable. In the experiment, for a given retention utility distribution function, we first analyze the stability of the equilibrium points of social interaction and customer adaptive forward-looking behavior in various scenarios, and then use bifurcation graphs and Lyapunov exponents to characterize their chaotic properties. The conclusion shows that the demand process may be stable, periodic or even chaotic. This means that the effectiveness of demand-based service capacity allocation decisions may be affected by social interaction and customer adaptive forward-looking behavior. The final result of the paper highlights that in order to make the demand-based service capacity allocation strategy effective, companies must consider the impact of social interaction and customer forward-looking behavior when making decisions. In addition, service enterprises should strive to dominate in the process of demand, through their own decisions to guide customers to make the corresponding choices, when the demand system is unstable, This is more effective than passively adjusting service capacity according to customer demand.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F719

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