苏北地区能源消耗与经济增长的脱钩研究
发布时间：2018-08-07 16:15
【摘要】：现今社会环境问题日益突出，而能源过度消耗导致碳排放日益增加，是环境恶化的重要因素之一。本文以苏北地区为研究对象，基于2002-2011年的相关数据，研究其能源消耗与经济增长之间的脱钩关系。具体而言本文运用OECD脱钩模型、Tapio脱钩模型、LMDI分解法、脱钩努力模型及情景分析法分析了两者之间的脱钩状态、影响脱钩状态的深层次原因，对2012-2020年脱钩状态进行了预测，并提出了相关政策建议。 本文首先对2002-2011年苏北地区的能源消耗与经济增长现状进行了分析，同时与苏中、苏南地区比较，并运用环境库兹涅茨曲线与环境学习曲线对两者关系进行了拟合分析；其次基于2002-2011年的相关数据运用OECD、Tapio脱钩模型进行了苏北地区的能源消耗与经济增长的脱钩状态评价，并与苏中、苏南地区比较；然后运用LMDI分解法分别探讨了2002-2005年、2006-2012年苏北地区及其各市能源结构、能源消耗强度、经济产出与规模这四个效应对其能源消耗总量变化的影响程度，并运用脱钩努力模型进行脱钩努力状态评价；最后运用基于IPAT模型的能源消耗预测模型，分别设定基准情景、节能情景及强化节能情景对苏北地区2012-2020年能源消耗总量及其与经济增长的脱钩状态进行预测。 结果表明，苏北地区2002-2011年的能源消耗总量与GDP总量的趋势均为整体上升，环境库兹涅茨曲线拟合结果为“N型”，环境学习曲线显示出苏北地区2002-2011年能源消耗强度整体上随着人均GDP的增长在降低；苏北地区在OECD脱钩模型中2003-2005年能源消耗与经济增长的脱钩状态均为不脱钩，2006-2011年均为脱钩，在Tapio脱钩模型中2003、2005、2011年脱钩状态为增长负脱钩，2004与2006-2010年均为脱钩；在能源消耗影响因素分析中，对于苏北地区整体及其各市，在2002-2005、2006-2011年，，能源结构、经济产出与规模效应均为正向贡献，能源消耗强度效应在2002-2005年均为正向贡献，而2006-2011年除连云港市与宿迁市以外，其在苏北地区整体及其它三市均为负向贡献；2002-2005年苏北地区及其各市的脱钩努力状态均为未做脱钩努力，2006-2011年连云港市与宿迁市均为未做脱钩努力，苏北地区整体及其它三市均为弱脱钩努力；在对2012-2020年的预测中，苏北地区基准情景下能源消耗与经济增长的脱钩状态将长期表现为增长连结，节能情景下为弱脱钩，强化节能情景下为强脱钩；最终本文分别从转变经济发展模式、提高能源利用效率、改善能源结构、强化政府职能、运用金融手段及提升群众节能意识这六方面提出相关建议。
[Abstract]:Nowadays, the problem of social environment is becoming more and more prominent, and the excessive consumption of energy leads to increasing carbon emissions, which is one of the most important factors for environmental degradation. This paper studies the decoupling relationship between energy consumption and economic growth based on the related data of 2002-2011 years. In this paper, the OECD decoupling model, Tapio The decoupling model, the LMDI decomposition method, the decoupling effort model and the scenario analysis method are used to analyze the decoupling state between the two and the deep reasons that affect the decoupling state. The 2012-2020 year decoupling state is predicted and the relevant policy suggestions are put forward.
In this paper, the energy consumption and economic growth of Northern Jiangsu Province were analyzed in the first 2002-2011 years. At the same time, compared with the Central Soviet Union and South of Jiangsu area, the relationship between the environmental Kuznets curve and the environment learning curve was analyzed. Secondly, OECD and Tapio decoupling model were used in the 2002-2011 year related data. The decoupling state of energy consumption and economic growth in the north area is evaluated and compared with that of the Central Soviet Union and South of Jiangsu area. Then, the effects of the four effects of the energy consumption intensity, economic output and scale on the total energy consumption change of the northern Jiangsu and the cities of Northern Jiangsu and its cities in 2002-2005 years and 2006-2012 years are respectively studied by the LMDI decomposition method. The decoupling effort model is used to evaluate the decoupling effort state. Finally, the IPAT model based energy consumption prediction model is used to set benchmarks, energy saving scenarios and energy saving scenarios to predict the 2012-2020 year energy consumption and the decoupling state of economic growth in Northern Jiangsu.
The results show that the total energy consumption and GDP total of 2002-2011 years in Northern Jiangsu are all rising, and the result of environmental Kuznets curve fitting is "N type". The environmental learning curve shows that the energy consumption intensity of 2002-2011 years in Northern Jiangsu is reduced with the increase of per capita GDP, and the North Jiangsu area is 200 in the OECD decoupling model. The decoupling state of energy consumption and economic growth in 3-2005 years is not decoupled, and the 2006-2011 year is decoupling. The decoupling state of 200320052011 years in the Tapio decoupling model is negative decoupling, 2004 and 2006-2010 are decoupled. In the analysis of the influence factors of energy consumption, the whole and its cities in Northern Jiangsu, in 2002-20052006-2011, Energy structure, economic output and scale effect are both positive contributions, and the energy consumption intensity effect is positive contribution in the 2002-2005 year, while in 2006-2011 years except Lianyungang and Suqian, the whole and other three cities in Northern Jiangsu and other cities are negative contributions, and the decoupling efforts of the northern areas and their cities in the 2002-2005 year are not taken off. In the past 2006-2011 years, Lianyungang city and Suqian city have not worked hard for decoupling. The whole and the other three cities in Northern Jiangsu and other cities are all weak decoupling efforts. In the forecast of 2012-2020 years, the decoupling state of energy consumption and economic growth under the baseline scenario of Northern Jiangsu will be long link, and the energy saving scenario is weak decoupling and energy conservation. The six aspects of this paper are to change the economic development model, improve the efficiency of energy utilization, improve the energy structure, strengthen the government function, use the financial means and improve the consciousness of the people's energy saving respectively.
【学位授予单位】：中国矿业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F426.2;F124.1
本文编号：2170600
[Abstract]:Nowadays, the problem of social environment is becoming more and more prominent, and the excessive consumption of energy leads to increasing carbon emissions, which is one of the most important factors for environmental degradation. This paper studies the decoupling relationship between energy consumption and economic growth based on the related data of 2002-2011 years. In this paper, the OECD decoupling model, Tapio The decoupling model, the LMDI decomposition method, the decoupling effort model and the scenario analysis method are used to analyze the decoupling state between the two and the deep reasons that affect the decoupling state. The 2012-2020 year decoupling state is predicted and the relevant policy suggestions are put forward.
In this paper, the energy consumption and economic growth of Northern Jiangsu Province were analyzed in the first 2002-2011 years. At the same time, compared with the Central Soviet Union and South of Jiangsu area, the relationship between the environmental Kuznets curve and the environment learning curve was analyzed. Secondly, OECD and Tapio decoupling model were used in the 2002-2011 year related data. The decoupling state of energy consumption and economic growth in the north area is evaluated and compared with that of the Central Soviet Union and South of Jiangsu area. Then, the effects of the four effects of the energy consumption intensity, economic output and scale on the total energy consumption change of the northern Jiangsu and the cities of Northern Jiangsu and its cities in 2002-2005 years and 2006-2012 years are respectively studied by the LMDI decomposition method. The decoupling effort model is used to evaluate the decoupling effort state. Finally, the IPAT model based energy consumption prediction model is used to set benchmarks, energy saving scenarios and energy saving scenarios to predict the 2012-2020 year energy consumption and the decoupling state of economic growth in Northern Jiangsu.
The results show that the total energy consumption and GDP total of 2002-2011 years in Northern Jiangsu are all rising, and the result of environmental Kuznets curve fitting is "N type". The environmental learning curve shows that the energy consumption intensity of 2002-2011 years in Northern Jiangsu is reduced with the increase of per capita GDP, and the North Jiangsu area is 200 in the OECD decoupling model. The decoupling state of energy consumption and economic growth in 3-2005 years is not decoupled, and the 2006-2011 year is decoupling. The decoupling state of 200320052011 years in the Tapio decoupling model is negative decoupling, 2004 and 2006-2010 are decoupled. In the analysis of the influence factors of energy consumption, the whole and its cities in Northern Jiangsu, in 2002-20052006-2011, Energy structure, economic output and scale effect are both positive contributions, and the energy consumption intensity effect is positive contribution in the 2002-2005 year, while in 2006-2011 years except Lianyungang and Suqian, the whole and other three cities in Northern Jiangsu and other cities are negative contributions, and the decoupling efforts of the northern areas and their cities in the 2002-2005 year are not taken off. In the past 2006-2011 years, Lianyungang city and Suqian city have not worked hard for decoupling. The whole and the other three cities in Northern Jiangsu and other cities are all weak decoupling efforts. In the forecast of 2012-2020 years, the decoupling state of energy consumption and economic growth under the baseline scenario of Northern Jiangsu will be long link, and the energy saving scenario is weak decoupling and energy conservation. The six aspects of this paper are to change the economic development model, improve the efficiency of energy utilization, improve the energy structure, strengthen the government function, use the financial means and improve the consciousness of the people's energy saving respectively.
【学位授予单位】：中国矿业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F426.2;F124.1
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