我国跨境贸易人民币结算相关影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-03-05 13:12

本文选题：跨境贸易　切入点：人民币结算　出处：《昆明理工大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2008年金融危机的爆发,让各个国家开始审视以美元为主要结算货币的支付体系。随着我国对外贸易规模的进一步扩大与经济实力的逐渐加强,人民币国际化的呼声日益高涨。为了顺应形势,促进贸易便利化,也为了推进人民币的国际化进程。在2009年4月8日,国务院决定在广州、深圳、珠海、东莞、上海5个城市先行开展跨境贸易人民币结算试点工作,境外地域范围暂定为港澳地区和东盟国家。到了2011年8月23日跨境贸易人民币结算境内地域范围扩大至全国。2013年累计至10月,跨境贸易人民币结算额为35453亿元,较上年同期增长了55.27%。随着跨境贸易人民币结算规模的不断提升,不仅有利于我国企业规避汇率风险,也有利于促进人民币的国际化进程。因此,本文从货币国际化理论、货币竞争理论、国际贸易中结算货币选择理论出发,凭借货币选择理论中的局部均衡分析与一般均衡分析,分析出结算货币选择的影响因素,结合我国实际,辨析我国跨境贸易人民币结算业务发展的现实条件。对于影响我国跨境贸易人民币结算的相关影响因素做实证分析,先采用计量经济学中描述性统计数据分析、平稳性分析、协整检验等对数据做出分析,然后构建出ECM模型分析短期中各个因素的影响程度,再构建出VAR模型和脉冲响应函数分析出各个因素对跨境贸易人民币结算业务造成的冲击,进而提出中国视角推进跨境贸易人民币结算的政策建议。基于上述思路,本文研究得出：第一,影响我国跨境贸易人民币结算业务发展的因素主要来自于汇率波动、消费者物价指数、工业制成品出口额、工业制成品进口额。短期中,我国的跨境贸易人民币结算额会受到上述因素的影响,而且在这几个因素中汇率波动造成的影响最为显著。但在长期中,受上述因素的冲击作用并不明显,这与人民币还没有实现国际化、我国跨境贸易人民币结算业务的发展主要受到国家政策的影响有关。第二,针对对于我国跨境贸易人民币结算的相关影响因素的研究,结合实际情况,并提出合理的政策建议：逐步开放金融市场、提高企业的贸易竞争力、增强以人民币作为结算货币的观念、创新人民币金融理财产品、完善开展跨境贸易人民币结算业务的政策、积极推进与边境地区的人民币结算业务。
[Abstract]:In 2008, with the outbreak of the financial crisis, various countries began to examine the payment system with the US dollar as the main settlement currency. With the further expansion of China's foreign trade scale and the gradual strengthening of its economic strength, In order to comply with the situation, to promote trade facilitation, and to promote the internationalization of the renminbi, in April 8th 2009, the State Council decided in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Dongguan, Five cities in Shanghai have started the pilot work of RMB settlement for cross-border trade. The territory outside China is tentatively for Hong Kong, Macao and ASEAN countries. By August 23rd 2011, the territory of cross-border trade RMB settlement was extended to the whole country. From 2013 to October, the settlement amount of cross-border trade RMB was three trillion five hundred and forty-five billion three hundred million yuan. As cross-border yuan settlement continues to increase, it will not only help Chinese companies avoid currency risk, but also facilitate the internationalization of the yuan. Therefore, based on the theory of currency internationalization, the theory of currency competition, the theory of settlement currency choice in international trade, and the partial equilibrium analysis and general equilibrium analysis of currency selection theory, this paper analyzes the influencing factors of settlement currency choice. Combined with the reality of our country, this paper discriminates the realistic conditions for the development of RMB settlement of cross-border trade in China. For the empirical analysis of the influencing factors of RMB settlement in cross-border trade in China, the descriptive statistical data in econometrics are used first. The stability analysis, cointegration test and so on make the analysis to the data, then construct the ECM model to analyze the influence degree of each factor in the short term, Then the VAR model and impulse response function are constructed to analyze the impact of various factors on RMB settlement of cross-border trade, and then the policy recommendations of promoting RMB settlement in cross-border trade from the perspective of China are put forward. Based on the above ideas, this paper concludes that:. First, the factors that affect the development of RMB settlement of cross-border trade in China mainly come from exchange rate fluctuations, consumer price indices, exports of manufactured goods, and imports of manufactured goods. In the short term, The amount of RMB settlement in cross-border trade in China will be affected by the above-mentioned factors, and among these factors, the exchange rate fluctuation will be the most significant. But in the long run, the impact of these factors is not obvious. This is due to the fact that the RMB has not been internationalized, and the development of RMB settlement in cross-border trade in China is mainly affected by national policies. Second, according to the research on the related factors of RMB settlement of cross-border trade in China, combining with the actual situation, and putting forward reasonable policy recommendations: gradually open the financial market, improve the trade competitiveness of enterprises. Strengthen the concept of RMB as settlement currency, innovate RMB financial products, perfect the policy of developing RMB settlement business in cross-border trade, and actively promote RMB settlement business with border areas.
【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.63

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