汇率波动、外部冲击与通货膨胀

发布时间：2018-08-12 14:07

【摘要】：以国际金融危机和人民币升值预期为背景,深入分析汇率波动、外部冲击对通货膨胀的影响机制,并构建通货膨胀的决定模型进行实证检验,结果表明在国际金融危机背景下,汇率波动和外部冲击是影响中国通货膨胀长期的、重要的因素;且人民币升值短期内会在一定程度上会引起物价上升,但18个月后这种影响就会消失甚至相反;同时通过FDI途径进入中国的国外资本进入实体经济不会造成国内通货膨胀,而通过QFII间接投资以及通过非法途径进入国内的资本将会助推通胀的形成;此外金融危机期间,外部冲击对中国物价水平的影响明显大于国内因素。因此,在人民币升值预期下,不能根据物价水平的短期回落来判断通货膨胀的长期趋势;在治理通货膨胀时应充分注重外部冲击对通货膨胀的影响,并建立治理通货膨胀的长效机制。
[Abstract]:Taking the international financial crisis and the expectation of RMB appreciation as the background, this paper deeply analyzes the influence mechanism of exchange rate fluctuations and external shocks on inflation, and builds a decision model for inflation. The results show that under the background of international financial crisis, Exchange rate fluctuations and external shocks are long-term and important factors affecting China's inflation, and the appreciation of RMB will cause price rise to some extent in the short term, but this effect will disappear or even reverse after 18 months. At the same time, the entry of foreign capital into the real economy through FDI will not cause domestic inflation, while indirect investment through QFII and capital entering China through illegal means will contribute to the formation of inflation. In addition, during the financial crisis, The impact of external shocks on China's price level is obviously greater than that of domestic factors. Therefore, under the expectation of RMB appreciation, we cannot judge the long-term trend of inflation based on the short-term fall in price level; we should pay full attention to the impact of external shocks on inflation while controlling inflation. And establish a long-term mechanism to control inflation.
【作者单位】：复旦大学金融研究院;广东水利电力职业技术学院经济管理系;
【基金】：教育部人文社科基金一般项目(10YJC790405) 上海市社科规划一般项目(2011BJB001) 国家社科基金重点项目(09AZD019)
【分类号】：F832.6;F822.5;F224

【共引文献】