澳门经济周期与就业波动的关联效应分析

发布时间：2018-07-06 07:14

本文选题：澳门 + 经济周期　；参考：《学术研究》2016年08期

【摘要】：随着经济结构转型和博彩娱乐业的快速发展,澳门经济周期波动依次呈现中增长和低波动、低增长和中波动、高增长和高波动的阶段性特征。基于澳门经济周期与就业波动关联效应的实证结果表明,虽然近10年澳门经济处于高增长和高波动阶段,澳门本地居民失业率却呈现直线下降趋势,本地居民就业市场并未随经济周期出现明显的波动特征。进一步研究发现,这一时期外地雇员正成为澳门就业人口的重要组成部分,且所占比重在持续上升,外地雇员人数与经济周期波动的趋势呈现高度一致性,充当着澳门本地居民就业市场波动的"缓冲器"作用,这对于理解澳门经济波动的就业影响具有启示作用。
[Abstract]:With the transformation of economic structure and the rapid development of gambling and entertainment industry, the fluctuation of Macao business cycle is characterized by moderate growth and low fluctuation, low growth and medium volatility, high growth and high volatility. The empirical results based on the correlation between Macao economic cycle and employment volatility show that, although Macao's economy is in a period of high growth and high volatility in the past 10 years, the unemployment rate of local residents in Macao has shown a downward trend. The local employment market does not have the obvious fluctuation characteristic with the economic cycle. Further studies have found that, during this period, foreign employees are becoming an important part of Macao's employed population, and the proportion of foreign employees continues to rise. The number of foreign employees is highly consistent with the trend of economic cycle fluctuations. It acts as a "buffer" for the fluctuation of the employment market of Macao's local residents, which has an enlightening effect on understanding the employment impact of Macao's economic fluctuations.
【作者单位】：北京大学科技开发部;北京航空航天大学;
【分类号】：F127;F249.27

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