国际资本流动对我国货币政策影响研究

发布时间：2019-04-12 06:55

【摘要】：近年来,随着人民币国际化进程的加快,我国在人民币汇率形成机制改革、资本项目开放方面取得了较大的进步,但与此同时给我国金融要素定价、资本系统稳定性和内外风险防范也带来了新的挑战,尤其是在国际资本流动的冲击下,我国货币政策体系将面临更大的压力,实施的自主性也受到影响。本文基于国际资本流动和货币政策基本理论,探讨了我国国际资本流动的度量方法、主要构成、影响因素及未来发展趋势,阐述了国际资本流动对我国货币政策的影响机制和途径。进而将宏观经济量化目标引入到中央银行的目标损失函数,建立了反映国际资本流动对货币政策效果影响的抵消系数模型和货币政策工具对国际资本流动的冲销系数模型。在对我国2003年第1季度到2016年第4季度的相关数据进行量化处理后,使用联立方程法进行了实证研究,得出了抵消系数和冲销系数,并采用递归系数的方法对抵消系数和冲销系数的动态变化过程进行了估计。结果显示国际资本流动对货币政策的抵消系数为0.3533-0.3608,这说明我国的货币政策效果约有35.33%-36.08%被国际资本流动抵消了,货币政策效果并不是十分明显;货币政策对国际资本流动的冲销系数为0.7740-0.8543,说明我国货币政策的冲销效率约为77.40%-85.43%。鉴于定性和定量分析结论,本文在最后部分提出了国际资本流动下提高我国货币政策效果的参考性建议:加强和完善跨境资本流动监督管理,防范风险;提高货币政策工具冲销效率;深化金融市场改革,提高抗风险能力。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the acceleration of the process of RMB internationalization, China has made great progress in the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and the opening up of capital account, but at the same time pricing the financial elements of our country. The stability of capital system and the prevention of internal and external risks have brought new challenges, especially under the impact of international capital flows, China's monetary policy system will face greater pressure, and the autonomy of implementation will also be affected. Based on the basic theories of international capital flow and monetary policy, this paper discusses the measurement methods, main composition, influencing factors and future development trend of China's international capital flows. This paper expounds the influence mechanism and approach of international capital flow on China's monetary policy. Furthermore, the macro-economic quantitative objective is introduced into the objective loss function of the central bank, and the offset coefficient model reflecting the influence of international capital flow on monetary policy effect and the cancellation coefficient model of monetary policy tool on international capital flow are established. After quantifying the relevant data from the first quarter of 2003 to the fourth quarter of 2016 in China, the empirical study is carried out by using the simultaneous equation method, and the cancellation coefficient and the write-off coefficient are obtained. A recursive coefficient method is used to estimate the dynamic variation process of the cancellation coefficient and the write-off coefficient. The results show that the cancellation coefficient of international capital flow to monetary policy is 0.3533 / 0.3608, which indicates that 35.33% / 36.08% of the monetary policy effect of our country is offset by international capital flow, and the effect of monetary policy is not very obvious. The write-off coefficient of monetary policy to international capital flows is 0.7740 / 0.8543, indicating that the write-off efficiency of monetary policy in China is about 77.40% to 85.43%. In view of the conclusion of qualitative and quantitative analysis, this paper puts forward some referential suggestions to improve the effectiveness of China's monetary policy under international capital flows: strengthening and perfecting the supervision and management of cross-border capital flows to prevent risks; We will improve the write-off efficiency of monetary policy instruments, deepen the reform of financial markets, and improve the ability to resist risks.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F831.6;F822.0

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