我国东部地区制造业集聚对全要素生产率的影响研究

发布时间：2019-01-21 20:56

【摘要】：长期以来,我国的制造业主要是依靠劳动资本的大量投入来带动的,这种粗放型增长方式发展的背后是我国制造业生产规模的不断扩大。在这种粗放型的发展模式下,我国制造业的确起到了一定的复苏,为我国制造业的进一步转型升级打下了非常重要的基础。但随着国内国际经济环境的变化,我国制造业边际报酬递减趋势日益明显,而且人口老龄化使得廉价劳动力优势正在丧失,在与发达国家的竞争中落于下风。特别是在全球经济整体下行,复苏缓慢的情况下,我国制造业要实现长足发展,实现经济又好又快的平稳增长存在很大的困难。所以在这样的背景下,就必须转变经济发展方式,实现产业升级,提高全行业的生产效率,以突破我国制造业当前的发展瓶颈。而我国东部地区无论是经济发展水平、制造业的集聚水平还是科技创新水平相对于中西部地区来说都是遥遥领先的。所以研究我国东部地区对于我国各方面都欠发达的中西部地区可以起到很好的借鉴作用。本文基于对往经典理论与重要文献的研究,梳理出基于产业集聚经典理论框架下产业集聚对全要素生产率增长的各种影响机制,如人力资本机制、物质资本机制、技术进步机制、市场效率机制及外部经济机制等。首先测算了东部地区11个省市制造业集聚水平及全要素生产率水平,并对比分析并讨论了二者测度值的历年变化。进一步考虑空间影响因素的前提下,建立空间面板计量模型对二者间的影响关系进行实证分析。结果表明,除各别省外我国东部地区制造业集聚水平整体较高,但是各省市之间区位原因、资源禀赋及经济条件等存在一的差异。近年来我国东部地区各省市均实现了全要素生产率水平整体的提升,但区域差异明显。通过对近年来东部各省市的制造业集聚水平及全要素生产率水平的变化轨迹来看,虽然高集聚地区生产率往往增长较快,但进一步分析会发现二者间并不存在明显的线性影响关系。本文建立不同空间权重矩阵下的空间面板滞后模型,在线性和非线性框架下对制造业集聚与全要素生产率二者间的影响关系进行了实证研究。结果表明该地区全要素生产率随着我国东部地区制造业集聚的提升增长明显,并且是通过技术效率的路径来作用的。进一步通过加入集聚指标二次项回归分析后得出二者间存在显著的非线性作用关系。因为集聚正向影响生产率存在一个阈值,当地区集聚水平低于这一阈值时,集聚有助于地区生产率提升;相反,当该地区集聚低于这一阈值时,集聚会抑制生产效率的提升。最后,本文根据实证研究结果并结合当前我国东部地区经济现状,就如何有效地提高我国东部地区制造业生产率、协调制造业产业布局实现协同发展,提出了相对应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:For a long time, the manufacturing industry of our country is mainly driven by a large amount of labor capital, and the continuous expansion of the scale of manufacturing industry is behind the development of this extensive growth mode. In this extensive development mode, Chinese manufacturing industry did play a certain recovery, which laid a very important foundation for the further transformation and upgrading of our manufacturing industry. However, with the change of domestic and international economic environment, the decreasing trend of marginal returns of manufacturing industry in China is becoming increasingly obvious, and the aging population makes the advantage of cheap labor is losing and falling behind in the competition with developed countries. Especially under the condition of the global economic downtrend and the slow recovery, it is very difficult to realize the rapid development of our manufacturing industry and the steady growth of the economy. Therefore, under this background, we must change the mode of economic development, realize industrial upgrading, improve the production efficiency of the whole industry, in order to break through the bottleneck of the current development of our manufacturing industry. However, the economic development level, manufacturing agglomeration level and scientific and technological innovation level in the eastern part of China are far ahead of those in the central and western regions. Therefore, the study of the eastern region of China can play a good reference for the underdeveloped central and western regions in all aspects of our country. Based on the research of classical theory and important literature, this paper sorts out the influence mechanism of industrial agglomeration on total factor productivity growth, such as human capital mechanism, material capital mechanism, based on the classical theory of industrial agglomeration. Technological progress mechanism, market efficiency mechanism and external economic mechanism. Firstly, the level of manufacturing agglomeration and total factor productivity (TFP) of 11 provinces and cities in eastern China are measured, and the changes of their measurement values in the past years are analyzed and discussed. On the premise of considering the spatial influence factors, a spatial panel metrological model is established to analyze the relationship between them. The results show that the manufacturing agglomeration level in the eastern part of China is relatively high except in each province, but there are some differences among the provinces and cities in terms of location, resource endowment and economic conditions. In recent years, all provinces and cities in eastern China have realized the overall improvement of total factor productivity, but the regional differences are obvious. According to the change track of manufacturing agglomeration level and total factor productivity level in eastern provinces and cities in recent years, although productivity in high agglomeration areas tends to increase rapidly, However, further analysis shows that there is no obvious linear relationship between the two. In this paper, the spatial panel lag model under different spatial weight matrices is established, and the relationship between manufacturing agglomeration and total factor productivity is studied empirically under the linear and nonlinear framework. The results show that the total factor productivity (TFP) in this area increases obviously with the increase of manufacturing agglomeration in the eastern part of China, and it works through the path of technological efficiency. Further, by adding the binomial regression analysis of agglomeration index, it is concluded that there is a significant nonlinear relationship between the two. Because agglomeration has a positive effect on productivity there is a threshold, when the level of regional agglomeration is below this threshold, agglomeration contributes to the improvement of regional productivity; on the contrary, when the regional agglomeration falls below this threshold, agglomeration will inhibit the improvement of production efficiency. Finally, according to the results of empirical research and the current economic situation in eastern China, this paper discusses how to effectively improve the productivity of manufacturing industry in the eastern region of China, and coordinate the industrial layout of manufacturing industry to achieve coordinated development. The corresponding policy suggestions are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：西北师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F427

【相似文献】