泛珠三角地区物流业全要素生产率的实证研究

发布时间：2019-05-16 05:49

【摘要】：近年来随着物流业的迅猛发展,国家和地方政府逐渐认识到物流业对经济增长的提升作用,在地方及区域规划中也将物流业作为新兴重点产业进行推进。泛珠三角区域合作是中国迄今为止最大规模的区域经济合作,同时也是中国区域经济发展与合作的典型代表,如何使泛珠三角地区物流业更好地服务于该区域其他产业的调整与发展,从而在转变经济增长方式及增强国民经济竞争力等方面发挥重要的作用是一个亟待解决且具有重大现实意义的课题。效率作为衡量产业健康运行与否的重要指标为我们解决上述问题提供了一个新思路,因此,本文针对泛珠三角地区物流业生产率展开研究,通过分析该区域物流业增长动力及影响因素,为进一步推进泛珠三角地区物流业的快速稳健发展提供参考。本研究首先基于DEA的Malmquist指数法,运用面板数据,实证研究了泛珠三角地区2004-2014年间物流业的全要素生产率变动情况,并将其分解为技术进步和技术效率,研究发现在这10年期间,泛珠三角地区物流业全要素生产率的平均增长率为9.3%,这主要归功于技术进步的提高,其平均增长率为11%,而技术效率却下降了1.6%,进一步分解技术效率,其中纯技术效率下降了0.7%,规模效率下降了0.9%。这表明,泛珠三角地区物流业的生产率的主要推动力是技术进步,较低水平的技术效率状况使得泛珠三角地区的物流业在经济发展中远远没有充分发掘出现有资源和技术的潜力。其次,利用DEAP2.1数据包络软件进一步测算出泛珠三角地区区域内各省份的全要素生产率平均值并进行趋势分析,各省份的TFP趋势差异反映了影响因素的差异,由此进一步对泛珠三角地区物流业的TFP、资本和劳动贡献率进行分析,得出了该区域内各省物流业的发展模式:广东省、广西省、海南省、江西省为集约劳动密集型,福建省为粗放劳动密集型,贵州省和四川省为集约资本推动型,湖南省为集约劳动兼资本型,云南省为典型的粗放资本推动型。最后,从全要素生产率的分解因素技术进步和技术效率的视角探讨了影响全要素生产率的因素,从而构建了物流业全要素生产率对其影响因素的作用机制模型,进而通过构建模型中影响因素的相关指标用计量经济学软件Eviews6.0做了实证回归分析,并进一步结合该区域的物流业发展模式和实证结果分情况从研发投入、人力资本、制度、政府干预和产业结构几个方面提出了区域和省级层面的物流发展策略。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of logistics industry, national and local governments gradually realize the role of logistics industry in promoting economic growth, and also promote logistics industry as a new key industry in local and regional planning. Regional cooperation in the Pan-Pearl River Delta is the largest regional economic cooperation in China so far, and it is also a typical representative of China's regional economic development and cooperation. How to make the logistics industry in the Pan-Pearl River Delta better serve the adjustment and development of other industries in the region, Therefore, it is of great practical significance to play an important role in changing the mode of economic growth and enhancing the competitiveness of the national economy. As an important index to measure the healthy operation of the industry, efficiency provides us with a new way to solve the above problems. Therefore, this paper studies the productivity of the logistics industry in the Pan-Pearl River Delta region. By analyzing the growth motive force and influencing factors of logistics industry in this region, this paper provides a reference for further promoting the rapid and steady development of logistics industry in Pan-Pearl River Delta region. Based on DEA's Malmquist index method and panel data, this study empirically studies the changes of total factor productivity of logistics industry in Pan-Pearl River Delta region in 2014, and decomposes it into technological progress and technical efficiency. The study found that during the past 10 years, the average growth rate of total factor productivity of logistics industry in Pan-Pearl River Delta region was 9.3%, which was mainly due to the improvement of technological progress, with an average growth rate of 11%, while the technical efficiency decreased by 1.6%. To further decompose the technical efficiency, the pure technical efficiency decreased by 0.7%, and the scale efficiency decreased by 0.9%. This shows that the main driving force of the logistics industry in the Pan-Pearl River Delta region is technological progress. Because of the low level of technical efficiency, the logistics industry in Pan-Pearl River Delta is far from fully exploring the potential of existing resources and technology in the economic development. Secondly, the average value of total factor productivity (TFP) of provinces in Pan-Pearl River Delta region is further calculated by using DEAP2.1 data envelopment software, and the trend analysis is carried out. The TFP trend difference of each province reflects the difference of influencing factors. Based on the further analysis of TFP, capital and labor contribution rate of logistics industry in Pan-Pearl River Delta region, the development model of logistics industry in various provinces in this region is obtained: Guangdong Province, Guangxi Province, Hainan Province, Jiangxi Province are intensive labor-intensive. Fujian Province is extensive labor-intensive, Guizhou Province and Sichuan Province are intensive capital driving type, Hunan Province is intensive labor and capital type, Yunnan Province is typical extensive capital push type. Finally, from the perspective of technological progress and technical efficiency of total factor productivity, this paper discusses the factors that affect total factor productivity, and then constructs the mechanism model of logistics industry total factor productivity on its influencing factors. Furthermore, through the construction of the relevant indicators of the influencing factors in the model, this paper makes an empirical regression analysis with the econometric software Eviews6.0, and further combines the development model and empirical results of the logistics industry in the region from R & D investment, human capital, system. Government intervention and industrial structure put forward regional and provincial logistics development strategies.
【学位授予单位】：广东外语外贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F259.27

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