中国对外贸易周期波动分析
发布时间：2018-10-31 18:08
【摘要】：改革开放以来，随着中国经济体制的演进，中国对外贸易规模不断扩大，进出口贸易额逐年大幅攀升，为中国创造了大量外汇，成为中国经济增长不可或缺的支撑力量。经济全球化的不断推进，使世界各国经济开放度日益提高，国家间经济联系愈加紧密。中国是世界贸易大国，享受全球化带来的巨大经济利益的同时，也面临着外部经济波动对我国经济的冲击。国际贸易的周期性特征是一种客观存在，其波动规律与多种宏观因素有关，每一种因素在不同程度上影响着一国国际贸易的发展。了解并掌握各种影响因素与对外贸易周期波动之间的关系，从而有针对性的制定贸易政策，对促进国家对外贸易良好发展有着重要意义。 本文依托经济周期相关研究方法，采用计量经济学有关研究方法，发现并整理了中国对外贸易周期波动规律，分析了中国对外贸易周期与汇率波动、经济周期变动、贸易政策变化之间的关系，理清了各主要影响因素的作用效果，为最后的结论提供了客观依据。 论文首先介绍了国内外有关国际贸易周期的研究现状，总结并借鉴了其中一些学者的观点。详细阐述了经济周期的经典理论和内涵，并结合前人的观点定义了国际贸易周期基本概念。根据周期的基本特征，结合中国对外贸易数据，分析了中国对外贸易周期波动的现状。结果表明，，1978年以来中国进口贸易共经历了8次短周期波动、4次中周期波动，出口贸易共经历了9次短周期波动和4次中周期波动，随着对外贸易的发展周期波动的平稳性逐渐增强。 通过对各贸易影响因素加以分析比较，论文选取其中三个主要因素进行研究，目的在于弄清楚各因素与对外贸易周期的相关性。经过深入分析发现，人民币汇率波动对进出口贸易不存在短期影响，只存在长期负向冲击作用；经济周期波动与我国对外贸易周期的波动具有很强的相关性；国内外贸易政策对中国的进出口业务具有较强影响力。其中，经济周期和汇率波动两种因素对贸易周期波动的共同解释能力达到75%以上。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, with the evolution of China's economic system, the scale of China's foreign trade continues to expand, and the volume of import and export trade has increased significantly year by year, which has created a large amount of foreign exchange for China and become an indispensable supporting force for China's economic growth. With the development of economic globalization, the opening degree of the world economy is improving day by day, and the economic relations between countries are becoming more and more close. China is a big trading country in the world. While enjoying the enormous economic benefits brought by globalization, it is also facing the impact of external economic fluctuations on our economy. The periodicity of international trade is an objective existence, and its fluctuation law is related to a variety of macro factors, each of which affects the development of a country's international trade to varying degrees. It is of great significance to understand and master the relationship between various influencing factors and the fluctuation of foreign trade cycle, so as to formulate trade policies. It is of great significance to promote the good development of national foreign trade. Based on the relevant research methods of economic cycle and econometrics, this paper finds out and arranges the regularity of China's foreign trade cycle fluctuation, analyzes the fluctuation of China's foreign trade cycle and exchange rate, and the change of economic cycle. The relationship between the changes in trade policy clarifies the effects of the main influencing factors and provides an objective basis for the final conclusion. Firstly, this paper introduces the research status of international trade cycle at home and abroad, summarizes and draws lessons from some scholars. This paper expounds the classical theory and connotation of economic cycle, and defines the basic concept of international trade cycle. According to the basic characteristics of the period and the data of China's foreign trade, this paper analyzes the current situation of the fluctuation of China's foreign trade cycle. The results show that since 1978, China's import trade has experienced eight short-cycle fluctuations, four mid-cycle fluctuations, and export trade has undergone nine short-cycle fluctuations and four mid-cycle fluctuations. With the development cycle of foreign trade, the stability of fluctuations gradually increased. Through the analysis and comparison of each trade influence factor, the paper selects three main factors to carry on the research, the purpose is to find out the correlation between each factor and the foreign trade cycle. After in-depth analysis, it is found that RMB exchange rate fluctuations have no short-term impact on import and export trade, but only long-term negative impact, and that there is a strong correlation between the fluctuation of economic cycle and the fluctuation of China's foreign trade cycle. Domestic and foreign trade policies have a strong influence on China's import and export business. Among them, the economic cycle and exchange rate volatility of the two factors to explain the trade cycle fluctuations up to 75 percent.
【学位授予单位】：河北工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752.6;F224
本文编号：2303115
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, with the evolution of China's economic system, the scale of China's foreign trade continues to expand, and the volume of import and export trade has increased significantly year by year, which has created a large amount of foreign exchange for China and become an indispensable supporting force for China's economic growth. With the development of economic globalization, the opening degree of the world economy is improving day by day, and the economic relations between countries are becoming more and more close. China is a big trading country in the world. While enjoying the enormous economic benefits brought by globalization, it is also facing the impact of external economic fluctuations on our economy. The periodicity of international trade is an objective existence, and its fluctuation law is related to a variety of macro factors, each of which affects the development of a country's international trade to varying degrees. It is of great significance to understand and master the relationship between various influencing factors and the fluctuation of foreign trade cycle, so as to formulate trade policies. It is of great significance to promote the good development of national foreign trade. Based on the relevant research methods of economic cycle and econometrics, this paper finds out and arranges the regularity of China's foreign trade cycle fluctuation, analyzes the fluctuation of China's foreign trade cycle and exchange rate, and the change of economic cycle. The relationship between the changes in trade policy clarifies the effects of the main influencing factors and provides an objective basis for the final conclusion. Firstly, this paper introduces the research status of international trade cycle at home and abroad, summarizes and draws lessons from some scholars. This paper expounds the classical theory and connotation of economic cycle, and defines the basic concept of international trade cycle. According to the basic characteristics of the period and the data of China's foreign trade, this paper analyzes the current situation of the fluctuation of China's foreign trade cycle. The results show that since 1978, China's import trade has experienced eight short-cycle fluctuations, four mid-cycle fluctuations, and export trade has undergone nine short-cycle fluctuations and four mid-cycle fluctuations. With the development cycle of foreign trade, the stability of fluctuations gradually increased. Through the analysis and comparison of each trade influence factor, the paper selects three main factors to carry on the research, the purpose is to find out the correlation between each factor and the foreign trade cycle. After in-depth analysis, it is found that RMB exchange rate fluctuations have no short-term impact on import and export trade, but only long-term negative impact, and that there is a strong correlation between the fluctuation of economic cycle and the fluctuation of China's foreign trade cycle. Domestic and foreign trade policies have a strong influence on China's import and export business. Among them, the economic cycle and exchange rate volatility of the two factors to explain the trade cycle fluctuations up to 75 percent.
【学位授予单位】：河北工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752.6;F224
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前10条
1 刘丽杰;;蓝色贸易壁垒下中国出口贸易的应对措施[J];重庆科技学院学报(社会科学版);2012年05期
2 刘伟;凌江怀;;人民币汇率升值与中美贸易失衡问题探讨[J];国际金融研究;2006年09期
3 马晓野,刘明兴;我国国际贸易波动分析的理论框架[J];国际贸易问题;2001年07期
4 张庆君;;我国对外贸易顺差周期波动的实证分析:1978-2005年[J];国际贸易问题;2007年04期
5 谷任;张卫国;;汇率波动对我国外贸行业利润的影响研究[J];国际贸易问题;2012年03期
6 张保生;;WTO反歧视改革模式与欧盟对华贸易政策[J];国际贸易;2007年08期
7 贾怀勤;;改革开放以来中国经济波动与对外经济贸易因素[J];国际贸易;2009年01期
8 巴曙松;吴博;朱元倩;;关于实际有效汇率计算方法的比较与评述——兼论对人民币实际有效汇率指数的构建[J];管理世界;2007年05期
9 李天德;宗建亮;熊豪;;世界经济波动的贸易传导与影响——以美国为例的实证分析[J];贵州财经学院学报;2008年01期
10 胡加祥;彭德雷;;WTO对中国第四次贸易政策审议的法律考察[J];国际经贸探索;2012年12期
相关博士学位论文 前1条
1 白大范;20世纪80年代末以来的美国对华贸易政策[D];吉林大学;2012年
本文编号：2303115
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/jingjilunwen/jingjiguanlilunwen/2303115.html
