中国区域碳生产率的时空特征及影响因素的空间计量分析

发布时间：2018-03-10 04:38

本文选题：碳生产率　切入点：泰尔指数　出处：《中国矿业大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：碳生产率反映了单位二氧化碳排放的经济产出,是衡量低碳经济发展水平的核心指标。面对全球气候变化的严峻挑战,积极推进节能减排,大力发展低碳经济,已成为全社会的共识。中国是世界上最大的二氧化碳排放国,也是世界上最大的发展中国家,中国的碳减排必须以保证经济增长为前提,同时,中国地域辽阔,经济发展和碳排放的区域差异显著,这种地理空间的异质性和依赖性也是制定减排政策时不可忽略的重要因素。在此背景下,从空间视角对我国碳生产率的时序变化、空间分布和影响因素等问题进行深入研究显得尤为重要。首先,本文基于碳生产率的定义,测算了1997-2013年期间中国30个省区的碳生产率,进而分析了中国碳生产率的变化趋势和空间格局等特征,并对中国区域碳生产率的空间相关性进行了诊断。其次,利用泰尔指数和趋同度模型分别考察了全国层面和三大区域碳生产率的时空差异和趋同特征。再次,在对碳生产率影响因素及空间溢出效应进行理论分析的基础上,利用空间面板数据模型和偏微分效应分解法,从空间溢出视角对中国碳生产率的影响因素进行了考察。最后,根据研究结果,为提升我国碳生产率提出了相关政策建议。本文的主要研究结论如下:(1)1997-2013年我国整体及三大区域碳生产率均呈上升趋势,其中全国整体的年均增长率为4.05%,东部地区为4.29%,中部地区为4.77%,西部地区为2.79%。从空间分布格局来看,我国碳生产率区域差异明显,空间分布大致呈现出自西北地区向东南地区逐渐递进的梯度特征,有着明显的集聚特征。经Moran’s I指数检验,我国碳生产率存在显著的空间自相关性,且这种空间相关性有着高度的稳定性,具有一定的路径依赖性和锁定特征。(2)我国区域碳生产率的差异性主要是由区域内部差异导致的,而区域间差异对总差异的影响较小,但区域间差异呈现出不断扩大的趋势。在区域内差异中,我国东部地区碳生产率的区域内差异呈不断缩小趋势,中部地区内部差异减小不明显,而西部地区内部差异呈不断扩大趋势,且西部地区内部差异对总差异的贡献率上升明显,对总差异的影响不断扩大。(3)从全国整体来看,我国碳生产率不存在σ趋同和绝对β趋同,但存在条件β趋同,且技术进步是影响碳生产率趋同的重要因素。从三大区域来看,东部地区存在显著的趋同特征,而中部和西部地区,均不存在σ趋同、绝对β趋同和条件β趋同。(4)空间计量结果表明,经济增长、产业结构、政府干预、技术进步、人口规模等变量对我国碳生产率起到了正向影响,能源消费结构变量对碳生产率起到了负向影响,而外商直接投资对碳生产率的影响不显著。从空间溢出效应来看,我国碳生产率主要通过经济增长、能源消费结构、技术进步和政府干预等因素发生了空间溢出。其中,经济增长和技术进步等变量对碳生产率存在正向的空间溢出效应,能源消费结构和政府干预等变量对碳生产率起到了负向的空间溢出效应。
[Abstract]:Carbon productivity reflects the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of economic output, is a core indicator to measure the development level of low-carbon economy. Facing the serious challenge of global climate change, and actively promote energy-saving emission reduction, vigorously develop low carbon economy, has become the consensus of the whole society. Chinese is the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide, is also the largest developing country in the world Chinese, carbon emission reduction must be to ensure that the premise of economic growth, at the same time, China vast territory, regional differences in economic development and carbon emissions significantly, the spatial heterogeneity and dependence is also an important factor that can't be ignored to develop emission reduction policy. Under this background, from the perspective of the spatial temporal changes of carbon productivity in the problem of spatial distribution and influencing factors of the in-depth study is very important. First, the definition of carbon productivity based on the estimated period of 1997-2013 years Carbon productivity of 30 provinces and Chinese, change trend and spatial pattern Chinese carbon productivity is analyzed, and the China regional carbon productivity spatial correlation in the diagnosis. Secondly, studied temporal and spatial differences of the national level and three regional carbon productivity and convergence characteristics using the Theil index and the degree of convergence model. Again, on the basis of theoretical analysis on carbon productivity factors and spatial spillover effects on decomposition using spatial panel data model and the partial differential effect, from the perspective of spatial spillover Chinese carbon productivity influence factors were investigated. Finally, according to the research results, we put forward some policy recommendations to enhance the carbon productivity in China. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) 1997-2013 years of China's overall and three regional carbon productivity increased, including the overall annual growth rate of 4 .05%, the eastern region is 4.29%, 4.77% for the central region, the western region of 2.79%. from the point of view of the spatial distribution pattern of carbon productivity, China's regional differences, the spatial distribution of the gradient from the character of the northwest area to the southeast gradually progressive, a set of poly obvious syndrome. After Moran s' I index test, carbon productivity our country has significant spatial autocorrelation, and the spatial correlation has a high stability, has certain path dependence and locking feature. (2) the regional differences of carbon productivity in China is mainly caused by regional internal differences, regional differences and influence on the total variance is smaller, but the regional the difference showed a growing trend. The differences in the region, the eastern region of China's carbon productivity differences within the region was shrinking trend, the central region to reduce internal differences is not obvious, and within the western region The difference is growing, and the western region with internal differences of the total difference rate increased significantly, impact on the total difference expands unceasingly. (3) as a whole, the carbon productivity in China does not exist absolute convergence and beta convergence, but there is conditional convergence, and technological progress is an important factor affecting carbon the convergence of productivity. Three from the regional perspective, the significant features of the convergence in the eastern region, while the central and western regions, there is no convergence, absolute convergence and conditional convergence. (4) the spatial econometric results show that economic growth, industrial structure, government intervention, technological progress, population size and other variables to the positive influence on carbon productivity in China, the energy consumption structure variables on carbon productivity plays a negative impact, but the impact of foreign direct investment on carbon productivity spillover effect is not significant. From the point of view, mainly through the carbon productivity in China Economic growth, energy consumption structure, the spatial spillover technological progress and government intervention and other factors. Among them, economic growth and technological progress variables have positive spillover effect on carbon productivity, energy consumption structure and government intervention variables negative spatial spillover effects on carbon productivity.

【学位授予单位】：中国矿业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F127;X196

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