中国国际资本流动的效应研究

发布时间：2018-01-03 05:19

本文关键词：中国国际资本流动的效应研究　出处：《山西财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：21世纪世界经济发展最显著的特征就是国际资本的大规模跨境流动，许多新兴市场国家都成为国际资本的输入国。中国作为最大的发展中国家，随着其经济的飞速增长以及投资环境的不断改善，大量的外国资本开始进入我国市场，对我国的国际收支状况产生了深刻的影响。外资的大规模涌入，在一定程度上促进了我国经济的发展，但也带来很多负效应：导致我国国际收支长期双顺差，也造成了人民币的升值压力，影响了我国货币政策的有效性。为了深入探讨国际资本流动带给我国的各种效应，本文采取理论分析和实证分析相结合的研究方法，主要分为四个部分。第一部分介绍了各个时期国际资本流动的相关理论和效应模型，为后文的分析进行了铺垫。第二部分对我国从建国以来到现在利用外资和对外投资的历程做了概括，并从总量和结构两个方面分析了我国资本流动的现状。结果表明近几年我国的外资流入量不断增加，资本流动呈现双向流动趋势，其中FDI的流入规模不断增长，资本流动的方式呈现多元化。第三部分运用计量经济学的相关理论，通过建立计量模型，研究了国际资本流动的效应。可以看到，外资的不断流入推动了我国经济的增长，，也促进了我国对外贸易的发展，但也带来了许多负效应，造成了我国的通货膨胀压力，影响了我国的货币供应量。第四部分对我国资本流动的风险现状进行了分析，并结合我国的现状提出在新的形势下我国对于资本流动管理的政策建议，认为我国应该保持适度的资本流动，提高资本的利用效率，完善资本市场的制度，加强对流动资本的监管，有效规避国际资本流动给中国经济带来的风险。
[Abstract]:In 21th century, the most prominent characteristic of the world economic development is the large-scale cross-border flow of international capital. Many emerging market countries have become the importers of international capital. China is the largest developing country. With the rapid growth of its economy and the continuous improvement of the investment environment, a large number of foreign capital began to enter the Chinese market, which has a profound impact on our country's balance of payments. The influx of foreign capital to a certain extent has promoted the development of our economy, but also brought a lot of negative effects: China's long-term balance of payments double surplus, but also caused the appreciation of the RMB pressure. In order to probe into the effects of international capital flow on China, this paper adopts the combination of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis to study the effectiveness of monetary policy in China. It is mainly divided into four parts. The first part introduces the relevant theories and effect models of international capital flows in each period. The second part summarizes the process of using foreign capital and foreign investment from the founding of our country to now. The present situation of capital flow in China is analyzed from the aspects of total amount and structure. The result shows that the inflow of foreign capital in China has been increasing in recent years, and the capital flow shows a trend of two-way flow. Among them, the inflow scale of FDI is increasing and the way of capital flow is diversified. The third part uses econometric theory to establish econometric model. This paper studies the effect of international capital flow. It can be seen that the continuous inflow of foreign capital promotes the growth of our economy and the development of China's foreign trade, but also brings a lot of negative effects. Caused the inflation pressure in China, affected the money supply in China. 4th part of the risk of capital flows in China is analyzed. According to the present situation of our country, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions on the management of capital flow under the new situation, and holds that China should maintain moderate capital flow, improve the efficiency of capital utilization and perfect the system of capital market. Strengthen the supervision of the current capital and effectively avoid the risks brought by the international capital flow to the Chinese economy.
【学位授予单位】：山西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.51;F224

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