中国金融市场发展与政府债务风险——兼论财政政策联动性

发布时间：2018-03-17 14:29

本文选题：政府债务风险　切入点：金融市场发展　出处：《财经研究》2017年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：文章在梳理我国金融市场发展对政府债务风险影响机理的基础上,基于"经济-财政-金融"一体的框架探究了两者的具体作用机制,并通过敏感度分析与财政反应函数分析了这一机制与财政政策调整间的联动性。研究发现,现阶段我国金融市场发展主要通过"筹资能力"1影响政府债务可持续性,无论是长期均衡还是短期动态调整均表现出改善政府融资环境的积极效应,且不易受财政政策冲击,可缓解经济景气变化所引起的政府债务风险长期均衡波动,实现对周期性风险波动的主动防控。同时,结合我国初现"财政疲劳"的现实,金融市场发展有助于实现财政调整的良性循环,扩大政策回旋空间,缓解潜在风险波动。此外,历史上较大危机后,我国不同财政防范措施造成了政府债务风险短期波动的显著差异。
[Abstract]:On the basis of combing the influence mechanism of the financial market development on the government debt risk, the paper explores the specific mechanism of the two on the basis of the framework of "economy-finance-finance". Through sensitivity analysis and fiscal response function, this paper analyzes the linkage between this mechanism and the adjustment of fiscal policy. It is found that at present, the development of financial market in China mainly affects the sustainability of government debt through the ability to raise funds. Both the long-term equilibrium and the short-term dynamic adjustment show the positive effect of improving the government financing environment, and they are not easy to be impacted by the fiscal policy, which can alleviate the long-term equilibrium fluctuation of the government debt risk caused by the economic climate change. At the same time, the development of financial market is helpful to realize the virtuous circle of fiscal adjustment, expand the policy swing space and mitigate the potential risk fluctuation. After the great crisis in history, different fiscal precautionary measures in China caused significant differences in the short-term fluctuations of government debt risk.
【作者单位】：吉林大学数量经济研究中心;吉林大学商学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“全球经济复杂网络结构下金融危机适应性免疫研究”(16BJY161)
【分类号】：F812.5

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