货币政策对上市公司真实盈余管理影响的研究

发布时间：2018-06-26 01:18

本文选题：货币政策 + 契约动机　；参考：《华东交通大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：应计盈余管理和真实盈余管理都可以归为盈余管理,但是研究应计盈余管理的学者较多,应计盈余管理主要是通过调节公司财务报表中的相关科目,真实盈余管理是对公司的正常经营活动进行控制,这样做的目的就是想掩盖真实经济业务来修饰报表,使公司的业绩呈现出良好的发展前景。然而会计准则却使应计盈余管理行为受到限制,越来越多的公司选择通过真实盈余管理来调节利润,因为真实盈余管理主要是操纵实际的经营业务,而实际的经营业务并不是很好判断,而且存在特殊情况。货币政策是国家调控经济活动的手段,货币政策可以通过很多途径对经济活动产生影响,比如利率、货币等。企业的盈余管理活动是微观经济行为,而货币政策则属于宏观经济活动,本文研究宏观经济对微观经济行为的影响既是对已往关于真实盈余管理和货币政策的研究的补充,也是对以后研究相关论题的一种参考。本文采用规范研究方法和实证研究方法两者相结合,选取2010年到2015年度国泰安数据库不同行业的上市公司作为研究对象,借鉴Roy Chowdhury的衡量方法,选取相应的指标并构建模型。本文的实证结果发现:在货币政策紧缩时期,上市公司会比较喜欢选择减少研发、广告等方便操控的费用进行调增调减,这样就可以使得报表上的利润增加或减少,达到虚增利润传递经营业绩良好的信息,或者通过减少利润达到避免纳税的目的;另一种情况就是通过提高生产量来降低生产成本,这种方法也可以使得利润增加。在货币政策宽松时期,由于经济环境利好,公司进行融资投资活动所需要的资金并不那么难获得,因此,一般企业不会为了获得资金而冒险造假虚增利润。本文在理论部分论述了真实盈余管理的动机,经过实证检验了资本市场动机和契约动机存在于真实盈余管理当中,并且说明了在货币政策紧缩时期,上市公司融资遇到问题的时候,这是两个主要的动机,而在宽松阶段的上市公司并没有明显的动机进行真实盈余管理行为。因此本文得出与假设符合的结论:1、货币政策宽松时期,上市公司没有明显动机进行盈余管理行为;2、上市公司在货币政策紧缩时期存在资本市场以及契约动机进行真实盈余管理行为。根据结论我们提出相关建议,外部资本市场的投资者,应该着重对公司真实经营业绩进行考察,从而对该公司做出正确的价值评估,监管部门应该加强对企业进行真实盈余的力度,建立一个信息传递更严格的、信息披露更有效的资本市场,为投资者的利益提供应有的保障,会计事务所在审计上市公司经营活动时应该更加关注其公司经济业务的准确性、可靠性以及真实性。为外部的投资者提供投资向导,当然公司进行真实盈余管理,主要是因为受货币政策所导致的融资约束的影响,所以当政府在制定货币政策时也应该考虑相关企业的利益,从而制定出和我国经济发展相适应的货币政策。
[Abstract]:Both accrual earnings management and real earnings management can be classified as earnings management. However, there are many scholars in the study of earnings management. The accrued earnings management is mainly through adjusting the related subjects in the financial statements of the company. The real earnings management is the control of the normal operation of the company. The purpose of this is to cover up the real economy. But the accounting standards make the accrued earnings management behavior restricted, but more and more companies choose to adjust the profit through real earnings management, because real earnings management mainly manipulates the actual operation business, and the actual business business is not very good. Judging, and there is a special situation. Monetary policy is the means to regulate economic activities by the state. Monetary policy can affect economic activities in many ways, such as interest rate, currency, etc.. The earnings management activities of enterprises are micro economic behavior, and monetary policy is a macro economic activity. This article studies macro economy to microeconomy. The influence of behavior is not only a supplement to the previous research on real earnings management and monetary policy, but also a reference to the related topics in the future. This paper, combining the normative research method and the empirical research method, selects the listed companies from the different industries in Tai'an database from 2010 to 2015 as the research object. The results of this paper are as follows: in the period of tight monetary policy, the listed companies prefer to reduce the cost of convenient manipulation, such as reducing R & D, advertising and other convenient manipulation, so that the profits on the table can be increased or reduced to achieve the virtual increase of profit. Good performance information, or a reduction in profit to avoid tax purposes; the other is to reduce production costs by increasing production. This method can also increase profits. In the period of loose monetary policy, because of the good economic environment, the funds needed by the company to finance investment activities are not so good. It is difficult to obtain, therefore, the general enterprise will not risk the false increase of profit in order to obtain funds. In this paper, the motivation of real earnings management is discussed in the theoretical part. The motivation of the capital market and the contractual motivation exist in the real earnings management, and the financing of the listed companies in the period of tight monetary policy shows that the financing of listed companies is encountered. At the time of the problem, this is the two main motivation, and the listed companies in the loose stage have no obvious motivation to manage real earnings. Therefore, this paper draws a conclusion that is in line with the hypothesis: 1, when the monetary policy is loose, the listed companies do not have obvious motivation to conduct earnings management behavior; 2, the listed companies exist in the period of monetary tightening. According to the conclusion, we put forward some suggestions. The investors in the external capital market should focus on the inspection of the real business performance of the company, so as to make the correct value evaluation to the company. The supervision department should strengthen the strength of the real surplus to the enterprise and establish the firm. A more stringent information transmission, more effective information disclosure of the capital market, for the interests of investors to provide due guarantee, accounting firms should pay more attention to the accuracy, reliability and authenticity of the business of the company in the audit of the business of the listed companies. Real earnings management is mainly due to the influence of financial constraints caused by monetary policy, so when the government is making monetary policy, it should also consider the interests of the related enterprises, so as to formulate a monetary policy that is compatible with the economic development of our country.
【学位授予单位】：华东交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F275;F822.0;F832.51

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