财政空间与中国政府债务可持续性
发布时间：2018-08-31 10:07
【摘要】：本文在考虑政府财政调整能力的基础上,结合我国基本财政-政府负债特征构建适用非线性财政反应函数,通过分析不同经济状态对应的财政空间情况展开政府债务可持续性研究,并进一步将财政后备作为财政调整的储备渠道纳入分析,探讨后危机时期我国财政缓冲建设。研究结果表明,我国初现"财政疲劳"迹象,采用政府债务负担率的二次项函数能更好拟合我国财政反应现实,而危机后我国财政空间呈不断缩减趋势,且经济低迷时经济增长滞缓会进一步缩减财政空间,政府应关注财政空间使用效率。同时,随财政后备上升改善财政反应的"垂直效应"加速抵消增大财政调整成本的"水平效应",且现阶段提高财政后备改善财政反应的边际递减效应不显著,政府应增加财政后备,这一举措将使得经济低迷时的财政空间提升8.85%,经济处于常态时提升8.59%。
[Abstract]:On the basis of considering the ability of government finance adjustment and combining with the characteristics of basic fiscal and government liabilities in China, this paper constructs a suitable nonlinear financial response function. By analyzing the financial space situation of different economic states, this paper studies the sustainability of government debt, and further takes fiscal reserve as the reserve channel of fiscal adjustment into the analysis, and discusses the construction of fiscal buffer in the post-crisis period in China. The results show that the new signs of "fiscal fatigue" in China, the quadratic function of the government debt burden rate, can better fit the reality of our country's fiscal response, but after the crisis, the fiscal space of our country is constantly shrinking. And the sluggish economic growth will further reduce the fiscal space, the government should pay attention to the efficiency of the use of fiscal space. At the same time, with the increase of fiscal reserve, the "vertical effect" of improving fiscal response is accelerated to offset the "horizontal effect" of increasing fiscal adjustment cost, and the marginal decreasing effect of improving fiscal response by raising fiscal reserve at present is not significant. The government should increase its fiscal reserves, a move that would boost fiscal space during the downturn by 8.85m and the economy by 8.59m when the economy is in normalcy.
【作者单位】： 浙江大学经济学院;吉林大学商学院/数量经济研究中心;
【基金】：国家社科基金重点项目《基于一个改进的新财政集权理论视角下的财政收入集权的激励效应再评估研究》 浙江省哲学社会科学重大招标项目《浙江经济发展中供给侧和需求侧同时发力的对策研究》资助
【分类号】：F812.5
[Abstract]:On the basis of considering the ability of government finance adjustment and combining with the characteristics of basic fiscal and government liabilities in China, this paper constructs a suitable nonlinear financial response function. By analyzing the financial space situation of different economic states, this paper studies the sustainability of government debt, and further takes fiscal reserve as the reserve channel of fiscal adjustment into the analysis, and discusses the construction of fiscal buffer in the post-crisis period in China. The results show that the new signs of "fiscal fatigue" in China, the quadratic function of the government debt burden rate, can better fit the reality of our country's fiscal response, but after the crisis, the fiscal space of our country is constantly shrinking. And the sluggish economic growth will further reduce the fiscal space, the government should pay attention to the efficiency of the use of fiscal space. At the same time, with the increase of fiscal reserve, the "vertical effect" of improving fiscal response is accelerated to offset the "horizontal effect" of increasing fiscal adjustment cost, and the marginal decreasing effect of improving fiscal response by raising fiscal reserve at present is not significant. The government should increase its fiscal reserves, a move that would boost fiscal space during the downturn by 8.85m and the economy by 8.59m when the economy is in normalcy.
【作者单位】： 浙江大学经济学院;吉林大学商学院/数量经济研究中心;
【基金】：国家社科基金重点项目《基于一个改进的新财政集权理论视角下的财政收入集权的激励效应再评估研究》 浙江省哲学社会科学重大招标项目《浙江经济发展中供给侧和需求侧同时发力的对策研究》资助
【分类号】：F812.5
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