基于KMV模型的市政债券安全发行规模测度——以大连为实证样本

发布时间：2018-09-14 16:35

【摘要】：实行规模控制是世界各国对地方政府债务风险管理的普遍做法。本文基于我国地方政府独立发行背景,利用修正的KMV模型,以大连为实证样本,提出测度地方政府债券安全发行规模的计量方法。从确定大连地方政府信用等级所对应的违约概率临界值入手,分析和预测2015—2020年大连市政债券发行可担保收入增长的均值和波动率,进而找出预测时段大连不同期限市政债券安全发行规模。针对实证结果,本文提出完善大连政府举债融资机制、健全市政债券信息披露制度、完善信用评级制度、设立市政债券保险制度、构建市政债券风险评估与预警系统、建立地方政府违约破产机制和危机处理机制等相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:Scale control is a universal method of debt risk management for local governments all over the world. Based on the background of independent issuance of local government in China and the modified KMV model, this paper puts forward a measurement method to measure the scale of local government bond safety issuance based on Dalian as an empirical sample. Starting from determining the critical value of default probability corresponding to the credit grade of Dalian local government, this paper analyzes and forecasts the average value and volatility of the growth of guaranteed income of Dalian municipal bond issuance from 2015 to 2020. And then find out the forecast period of Dalian municipal bond safety issue scale. According to the empirical results, this paper puts forward to perfect the financing mechanism of Dalian government, perfect the information disclosure system of municipal bonds, perfect the credit rating system, set up the insurance system of municipal bonds, and construct the risk assessment and early warning system of municipal bonds. Establish local government default bankruptcy mechanism and crisis management mechanism and other relevant policy recommendations.
【作者单位】：东北财经大学财政税务学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学基金项目“地方债发行机制与监管体系重塑”(2014330) 辽宁省人文社会科学重点研究基地项目“地方政府性债务管理体系及风险预警机制创新研究”(ZJ2014052) 辽宁省财政科学基金项目“辽宁发行市政债券问题研究”(14B007)
【分类号】：F812.5

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