中国低碳经济影响因素分析与情景预测

发布时间：2018-02-01 17:12

本文关键词： 低碳经济 ISM模型关键阻碍因素情景分析 LEAP 中国　出处：《资源科学》2011年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：中国发展低碳经济面临诸多挑战与困难,涉及产业结构调整、新能源技术开发与利用、居民低碳意识提高等众多领域。本文系统地阐述了阻碍中国低碳经济发展的15个影响因素,运用解释结构模型理顺各影响因素之间的层级关系,进而找出阻碍中国低碳经济发展的关键因素--经济粗放式发展、缺乏完善的低碳政策框架、居民低碳意识淡薄和缺乏低碳专业人才。根据关键阻碍因素,设定中国低碳经济发展3种情景--基础情景、低碳情景和受挫情景,定量模拟中国2050年低碳经济发展水平。预测结果表明未来的能源需求和碳排放量极有可能是在一个较大的范围内波动,低碳发展对我国能源与环境建设具有多重正效应,低碳情景比基础情景在能源总需求方面下降了8.5亿t标准煤,CO2排放量减少了6亿t碳当量,煤炭占一次能源需求量下降到34%。
[Abstract]:China faces many challenges and difficulties in developing a low-carbon economy, involving industrial restructuring, development and utilization of new energy technologies. In this paper, 15 influencing factors that hinder the development of low-carbon economy in China are systematically expounded, and the hierarchical relationship among these factors is straightened out by using the explanatory structure model. Then find out the key factors that hinder the development of China's low-carbon economy-extensive economic development, lack of a sound low-carbon policy framework, low awareness of low-carbon residents and lack of low-carbon professionals. According to the key hindrance factors. Set up three scenarios of China's low-carbon economic development-basic scenario, low-carbon scenario and frustration scenario. Quantitative simulation of China's low-carbon economic development level in 2050. The forecast results show that the future energy demand and carbon emissions are likely to fluctuate in a large range. Low carbon development has many positive effects on energy and environment construction in China. Compared with the basic scenario, the total energy demand of low carbon scenario is reduced by 850 million tons of standard coal and 600 million tons of carbon equivalent. Coal accounts for 34 percent of primary energy demand.
【作者单位】：天津大学管理与经济学部;
【基金】：天津大学自主创新基金(编号:60304002)
【分类号】：X196
【正文快照】： 1引言在全球越来越重视气候变暖的背景下,以低排放、低能耗、低污染为核心理念的低碳经济成为改变这种局面的重要途径。低碳经济最早出现在2003年英国政府发布的能源白皮书:《我们能源的未来:创建低碳经济》,它强调气候变化的影响日趋恶劣,国家能源安全和气候环境受到严重威

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