中国区域碳强度目标设定的情景分析——以北京市为例

发布时间：2018-06-24 09:20

本文选题：CO排放 + 碳强度　；参考：《北京理工大学学报(社会科学版)》2013年05期

【摘要】：运用情景分析方法,对区域碳强度目标的设定问题进行研究,以区域碳排放模型为基础,根据模型中的重要影响因素进行情景设定,分析预测区域自身的碳强度降低情况,从而制定出适合本区域的碳强度目标。以北京市为例,设定出15种不同的发展情景,分析在不同情景下碳强度目标的实现情况。研究表明:北京市"十二五"期间的碳强度降低18%的目标是合理的;北京市2005—2020年的碳强度目标在45%~50%之间会更为合理;北京市"十三五"期间碳强度降低区间应在6%~8%之间。对北京市而言,经济增长水平的提高、产业结构中第三产业占比的提高,城市化进程的平稳发展,都能促进碳强度目标的实现。
[Abstract]:Based on the regional carbon emission model and the important influencing factors in the model, this paper studies the setting problem of regional carbon intensity target by using scenario analysis method, and analyzes and predicts the reduction of regional carbon intensity. Thus, a carbon intensity target suitable for the region has been developed. Taking Beijing as an example, 15 different development scenarios are set up, and the achievement of carbon intensity target under different scenarios is analyzed. The results show that the target of reducing carbon intensity by 18% during the 12th Five-Year Plan period is reasonable, that the carbon intensity target of Beijing from 2005 to 2020 is between 45% and 50% is more reasonable, and that the reduction range of carbon intensity should be between 6% and 8% during the 13th Five-Year Plan period in Beijing. As far as Beijing is concerned, the improvement of economic growth level, the proportion of tertiary industry in industrial structure and the steady development of urbanization can promote the realization of the target of carbon intensity.
【作者单位】：国家行政学院政治学教研部;北京理工大学管理与经济学院;中国船舶工业综合技术经济研究院管理研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71173017) 北京市自然科学基金资助项目(9112013) 国家重点基础研究发展计划(“973”计划)(2012CB955703)
【分类号】：X196

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