航班延误关键影响因素及影响程度识别——基于动态排队模型的分析

发布时间：2019-07-06 15:15

【摘要】：通过对航班运行流程闭环不同阶段的分解分析,识别出航班延误的关键原因包括流量控制、军事活动、天气等不可控因素和安检、旅客、机械故障、机场、公共安全等可控因素。运用数理推导和实证分析,验证了飞机起飞到达服从泊松分布,航班延误符合指数分布。通过构建航班延误总动态排队模型,并基于典型机场数据的模拟仿真分析,证明各因素引发的航班延误频率高低及其影响程度并非完全一一对应。航空公司因素发生频率最高、影响最大;流量控制发生频率较高、影响大;天气因素发生频率较高、影响较大;军事活动发生频率一般,但影响大;机械故障频率较低、影响较大;机场因素频率较低、影响较小。
[Abstract]:Through the decomposition and analysis of different closed-loop stages of flight operation process, the key causes of flight delay are identified, such as flow control, military activities, weather and other uncontrollable factors, such as security, passengers, mechanical failures, airports, public safety and other controllable factors. By means of mathematical derivation and empirical analysis, it is verified that the departure arrival obeys Poisson distribution and the flight delay accords with the exponential distribution. Through the construction of the total dynamic queuing model of flight delay and the simulation analysis based on the typical airport data, it is proved that the frequency of flight delay caused by each factor and its influence degree are not exactly one-to-one correspondence. The occurrence frequency of airline factors is the highest and the influence is the greatest; the frequency of flow control is high and the influence is great; the frequency of weather factors is high and the influence is great; the frequency of military activities is general but the influence is great; the frequency of mechanical fault is low and the influence is greater; the frequency of airport factor is low and the influence is small.
【作者单位】：西安交通大学经济与金融学院;西安财经学院高等职业技术学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学规划项目《我国航班延误的决定因素及治理补救机制研究》(11YJA790183) 教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划《航班延误的服务补救质量动态优化研究》(NCET120459)
【分类号】：F562;F224

【参考文献】