京津冀地区铁路网络可达性及经济联系格局演化分析

发布时间：2019-07-08 10:31

【摘要】：京津冀协调发展一直是社会广泛讨论的热点话题,随着《京津冀协同发展规划纲要》的颁布,将京津冀三地的发展上升至国家层面考量。交通作为改变经济活动的重要因素之一,决定了区域经济联系的强度与范围。通过探讨京津冀地区铁路网络可达性,充分把握交通要素对经济联系的影响,对于理解与认识经济联系的空间格局、增强规划的可操作性具有重要意义。本研究依托河北省科技计划项目(软科学)“京津冀多层级中心-外围城市空间影响范围研究”(15457630D),在参考国内外学者对可达性及经济联系研究成果的基础上,结合研究区域自身特点及发展特征,选取铁路运行时间、里程、GDP、人口数据等指标,利用加权平均旅行时间法计算京津冀地区13个城市2007、2014年的可达性值,运用引力模型计算经济联系总量和经济联系强度,采用ArcGIS模拟两者空间布局,分析其演化规律,并对规划中期(2020年)的可达性及经济联系进行预测,在此基础上对两者关系进行相关性分析,总结、剖析了京津冀铁路网络可达性及经济联系的类型与空间分布特征,旨在为促进京津冀协调发展提供理论支持。主要研究结论如下:(1)京津冀地区铁路网络可达性水平明显提升。2007~2014年铁路网络可达性由北京、廊坊为核心的“同心圆”圈层格局向以北京、天津为“双核心”,逐渐向外围递减的空间格局演变。到2020年能够实现规划中城市范围内高铁网编织的“2h交通圈”,并形成以北京、天津、廊坊作为整体“大核心”的圈层结构,中心地区范围增大,边缘化问题得到一定解决,可达性水平差距逐渐缩小,趋于均衡化。(2)随着铁路网络的不断完善,经济联系逐渐加强,经济联系格局与可达性格局基本匹配。2007~2014年经济联系强度主轴线由单一放射状向高速铁路指向性方向演化,形成了基本的空间骨架;经济联系总量格局变化较小,仍为中强外弱、南部优于北部的空间态势,但中部高值区范围有所扩大。到2020年,经济联系强度主轴线明显增多,次轴分级明显,空间骨架得到完善;经济联系总量格局的主要变化仍是高值区范围的扩大。(3)可达性与经济联系存在较强的相关性。将关联度划分为可达性高、关联度高,可达性中等、关联度中等,可达性低、关联度高三种类型,在空间上呈现由中心向外围递减的格局。可达性高、关联度高的城市为区域中部的北京、天津、廊坊、唐山,可达性低、关联度高的城市为北部边缘区的张家口、承德。
[Abstract]:The coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei has always been a hot topic widely discussed in the society. With the promulgation of the outline of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated Development Plan, the development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei has been taken into account at the national level. Traffic, as one of the important factors to change economic activities, determines the intensity and scope of regional economic relations. It is of great significance to understand and understand the spatial pattern of economic connection and to enhance the maneuverability of planning by discussing the accessibility of railway network in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and fully grasping the influence of traffic factors on economic relations. Based on the Hebei Science and Technology Planning Project (soft Science), "Research on the Spatial impact scope of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Multi-level Center-Peripheral cities" (15457630D), based on the research results of accessibility and economic relations of scholars at home and abroad, combined with the characteristics and development characteristics of the research area, the railway running time, mileage, GDP, population data and other indicators are selected. The reachability values of 13 cities in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei region in 2007 and 2014 are calculated by weighted average travel time method, the total amount and intensity of economic connections are calculated by gravity model, the spatial layout of the two cities is simulated by ArcGIS, and their evolution laws are analyzed, and the accessibility and economic relationship of the two cities in the middle of the planning (2020) are predicted. On this basis, the correlation analysis and summary of the relationship between the two cities are carried out. This paper analyzes the accessibility of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei railway network and the types and spatial distribution characteristics of economic relations, in order to provide theoretical support for promoting the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei railway network. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the accessibility level of railway network in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has been improved obviously. In 2014, the accessibility of railway network evolved from "concentric circle" with Beijing and Langfang as the core to "double core" with Beijing and Tianjin as the core, and gradually decreasing to the periphery. By 2020, we can realize the "2h traffic circle" woven by the high-speed rail network in the planned city, and form a circle structure with Beijing, Tianjin and Langfang as the whole "big core". The scope of the central area is enlarged, the problem of marginalization is solved to a certain extent, and the gap of accessibility level is gradually narrowed and tends to be balanced. (2) with the continuous improvement of the railway network, the economic ties are gradually strengthened. The economic connection pattern is basically matched with the reachability pattern. From 2007 to 2014, the main axis of economic connection intensity evolved from a single radiative to the directional direction of high-speed railway, forming a basic spatial skeleton. The pattern of total economic relations has little change, which is still strong and weak outside China, and the spatial situation of the south is better than that of the north, but the range of the high value area in the middle part is enlarged. By 2020, the main axis of economic connection intensity will increase obviously, the secondary axis classification will be obvious, and the spatial skeleton will be perfected. The main change of the total economic connection pattern is still the expansion of the range of high value area. (3) there is a strong correlation between accessibility and economic connection. The correlation degree is divided into three types: high reachability, high correlation degree, medium accessibility, medium correlation degree, low accessibility and high correlation degree, which show the pattern of decreasing from center to periphery in space. The cities with high accessibility and high correlation degree are Beijing, Tianjin, Langfang and Tangshan in the middle of the region. The cities with low accessibility and high correlation degree are Zhangjiakou and Chengde in the northern edge of the region.
【学位授予单位】：河北师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F532.8

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