基于关联规则的旅行社项目风险评估的研究
发布时间:2018-03-05 12:18
本文选题:旅游项目 切入点:数据挖掘 出处:《首都经济贸易大学》2013年硕士论文 论文类型:学位论文
【摘要】:旅游业作为我国三大支柱产业之一,其未来发展对国民经济发展起到重要的作用。随着旅游业的发展,许多中国游客的消费理念也在悄然发生转变,这种观点从从“出发前看重价格,旅行中追求品质”的不成熟旅游消费观念,开始转变为“出发前注重品质,认可合理的价格”。所以发展具有竞争力的旅游项目是旅行社在市场中长久发展的关键。然而旅游业存在着许多风险,如政治,自然,治安等。许多研究人员也致力于旅游风险的研究,但都是对于旅行社整体发展或单一区域旅游发展进行的,对于旅行社内部具体项目的风险评估分析却极为欠缺。 本文首次提出利用数据挖掘工具将客户信息与旅游数据结合进行多维挖掘,并将数据挖掘与风险评估合理的结合在一起。将旅行社项目作为风险评估目标,结合旅行社客户详细信息,路线信息和业务详情进行全面挖掘分析,识别风险因素,并获得潜在决策项目组合。为风险评估模型的简历提供可靠的依据。 根据数据挖掘结果并利用专家工作建立旅行社项目风险指标体系,利用层次分析法,建立各风险因素之间的权重矩阵模型,结合模糊综合评价决策法建立综合评价模型。最终得出潜在决策信息的风险等级。 本文以具体业务这个全新的视角对旅行社进行风险评估,建立风险评估模型。而对具体业务进行风险评估可以帮助旅行社进行未来业务预测,合理分配公司资源。根据风险评估模型对旅行社业务进行合理规划预测将使得旅行社在复杂市场环境下更具有优势,,提高旅行社的市场竞争能力。
[Abstract]:Tourism as one of the three pillar industries in China, its future development plays an important role in the development of the national economy. With the development of tourism, the consumption concept of many Chinese tourists is also quietly changing. This view has changed from an immature concept of tourism consumption, which "values price before departure and pursues quality during travel," to "focus on quality before departure." Therefore, the development of competitive tourism projects is the key to the long-term development of travel agencies in the market. However, tourism has many risks, such as politics, nature, Many researchers are also devoted to the study of tourism risk, but all of them are for the overall development of travel agencies or the development of tourism in a single region, but the risk assessment and analysis of specific projects within travel agencies are extremely lacking. For the first time, this paper proposes using data mining tools to combine customer information with tourism data for multidimensional mining, and reasonably combine data mining with risk assessment. Combined with travel agency customer details, route information and business details, comprehensive mining and analysis, identify risk factors, and obtain potential decision-making portfolio, to provide a reliable basis for the risk assessment model resume. According to the results of data mining and using the work of experts, the risk index system of travel agency project is established, and the weight matrix model of each risk factor is established by using the Analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Combined with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation decision method, the comprehensive evaluation model is established, and the risk level of the potential decision information is finally obtained. In this paper, we use the new perspective of specific business to evaluate the risk of travel agencies, and establish a risk assessment model, while the risk assessment of specific business can help travel agencies to predict future business. Reasonable allocation of company resources and reasonable planning and prediction of travel agency business based on risk assessment model will make travel agency have more advantages in complex market environment and improve the market competitiveness of travel agency.
【学位授予单位】:首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】:硕士
【学位授予年份】:2013
【分类号】:F592.6
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