上海市入境旅游市场变动及影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-04-01 05:05

本文选题：入境旅游　切入点：主要客源国　出处：《上海师范大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：当前全球国际旅游业进入持续稳定发展阶段，世界上许多国家或地区的政府把旅游业培育成为支柱或主导产业。进入21世纪以来，随着社会经济文化的飞速发展，上海市入境旅游业也进入了蓬勃发展时期。尽管入境旅游研究已经产生了许多研究成果,但上海市入境旅游市场方面的研究成果较为有限,因此利用定量分析方法,深入研究上海市入境旅游市场的动态发展变化以及探究入境旅游需求影响因素对上海市入境旅游市场竞争力提升具有重要意义。本文在对国内外文献分析的基础上，以上海市为研究对象，通过时空特征、偏离—份额等分析方法相结合对上海市入境旅游市场结构进行分析，同时运用双对数线性模型评估了入境旅游需求的影响因素,得到对上海市主要客源国入境旅游需求起到显著影响的因素及其之间的关系,为上海市入境旅游客源市场细分、入境旅游产品设计和目的地结构优化提出对策和建议。本文主要分为七大部分。第一部分为绪论部分，主要阐述了本文的研究背景、研究意义和目的、研究的主要内容和方法、论文的技术路线等。第二部分为综述部分，进行了相关概念的界定以及回顾了国内外对入境旅游市场方面的研究成果，最后在此基础上提出问题。第三部分是对上海市入境旅游市场总体特征变化进行分析，从入境旅游人数、入境旅游外汇收入和入境旅游者总体特征三个方面进行变化分析。第四部分是对上海市入境旅游市场结构变化进行分析，从时空特征、SSM分析以及特殊年份三个方面对其变化进行分析，得出相关结论。第五部分是对上海市入境旅游主要客源国影响因素进行研究。本章选定日本、韩国、美国、德国四个主要客源国，将客源国的总人数、人均国民生产总值、CPI以及目的地国上海的国民生产总值、进出口总额、上海市CPI等影响因素应用最小二乘法带入双对数模型进行多项式拟合的matlab实现，得出要素之间的关系。第六部分是基于第三、四、五章分析的基础上，，对上海市入境旅游市场提出针对性拓展对策。确定上海市入境旅游的细分目标市场、区域目标市场，提出针对上海市主要客源国影响因素的策略以及上海市入境旅游目的地结构优化策略。本文的最后一部分为结论与不足，对本文的重要结论作出分析总结，并提出了本文研究的不足之处。
[Abstract]:At present, the global international tourism industry has entered a stage of sustained and stable development. The governments of many countries or regions in the world have cultivated tourism as a pillar or leading industry. Since the beginning of the 21st century, with the rapid development of social economy and culture, The inbound tourism industry in Shanghai has also entered a period of vigorous development. Although the research on inbound tourism has produced many results, the results of research on the inbound tourism market in Shanghai are relatively limited, so the quantitative analysis method is used. It is of great significance to study the dynamic development and change of inbound tourism market in Shanghai and to explore the influencing factors of inbound tourism demand to enhance the competitiveness of Shanghai inbound tourism market. Based on the analysis of literature at home and abroad, this paper analyzes the structure of Shanghai inbound tourism market by means of space-time characteristics, deviation-share analysis and so on. At the same time, we use the double logarithm linear model to evaluate the influencing factors of the inbound tourism demand, and get the factors that have a significant impact on the inbound tourism demand of the main tourist countries in Shanghai and the relationship between them, which is the subdivision of the inbound tourist market in Shanghai. The countermeasures and suggestions for the design of inbound tourism products and the optimization of destination structure are put forward. This paper is divided into seven parts. The first part is the introduction part, mainly elaborated the research background, the research significance and the goal, the research main content and the method, the thesis technical route and so on. The second part is divided into the summary part, the second part is the summary part. This paper defines the relevant concepts and reviews the domestic and foreign research results on the inbound tourism market, and finally puts forward some questions. The third part is to analyze the changes of the overall characteristics of the inbound tourism market in Shanghai. The fourth part is to analyze the changes in the structure of Shanghai inbound tourism market from three aspects: the number of inbound tourism, the foreign exchange income of inbound tourism and the general characteristics of inbound tourists. From the analysis of spatial and temporal characteristics, SSM analysis and special year, the paper draws the relevant conclusions. The fifth part is to study the influencing factors of the main countries of inbound tourism in Shanghai. In this chapter, Japan, Korea, the United States, are selected. Germany's four major guest countries will include the total number of guest countries, the per capita GNP CPI, the gross national product of Shanghai, the destination country, and the total volume of imports and exports. Shanghai CPI and other influencing factors are carried out by using the least square method to carry out the matlab realization of polynomial fitting. The sixth part is based on the analysis of the third, fourth and fifth chapters. This paper puts forward some countermeasures to expand the inbound tourism market in Shanghai. The target market and regional target market of inbound tourism in Shanghai are determined. This paper puts forward the strategy of influencing factors of Shanghai's main tourist source countries and the strategy of optimizing the structure of Shanghai's inbound tourist destination. The last part of this paper is the conclusion and deficiency, and makes an analysis and summary of the important conclusions of this paper. At the same time, the deficiency of this paper is put forward.
【学位授予单位】：上海师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F592.7

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