基于空间探测方法的珠峰景区旅游安全预警研究

发布时间：2018-04-18 04:36

本文选题：地质灾害风险 + 旅游环境容量　；参考：《成都理工大学》2012年博士论文

【摘要】：旅游安全是制约西藏旅游产业健康和快速发展的主要因素之一。西藏高原平均海拔超过4000m，旅游资源快速开发与环境承载力、旅游接待能力之间矛盾突出；旅游线路长且易受灾害影响，旅游淡旺季特征明显，导致旅游管理运营成本高；而高海拔地区特殊的地理条件，加之相对落后的基础设施条件和公共服务能力，使西藏旅游业应对安全风险的能力更加脆弱。提高旅游服务质量、保障游客人身安全、保护自然生态环境是西藏旅游产业可持续发展的基本保障。聚焦有关高原旅游景区预警的新方法探索和技术解决方案，本论文选题来源于国家科技支撑计划课题“西藏旅游危机预防与应急救援关键技术研究及应用示范”（编号：2009BAH50B02）。以珠峰景区为核心研究对象，根据高海拔地区旅游风险特征，，研究基于空间探测的旅游安全预警模型，整合多学科手段建立旅游安全综合评价方法体系，提出一套适用于西藏高原的旅游安全预警信息采集、处理和分析模式。论文研究成果不仅服务于研究区，为我国乃至世界高海拔地区的旅游安全预警提供了探索的思路。珠峰景区由于其地理环境的特殊性，旅游产品结构以徒步、探险、科考等特种旅游为主，旅游安全的构成因素与其他景区具有明显差别。论文针对影响景区安全的关键因子，识别了地质灾害、景区承载力、高原反应三项主要旅游安全风险，并研究了相应的预警方法。在此基础上构建了旅游安全风险探测器，经模型综合评价和预警等级划分，完成对珠峰景区旅游安全的综合预警。主要成果与结论如下：（1）提出了基于GIS空间探测的旅游通道安全风险预警方法。对典型泥石流和崩塌灾害的地质环境条件、发育特征、形成机制及危害性，公路病害点的特征及危险进行剖析、评价；在ArcGIS9.3软件中，将缓冲区分析、叠加分析、空间关联分析、空间密度分析等空间分析模块进行集成应用，创建基于地理空间建模的旅游通道安全风险探测模型。通过旅游通道安全风险预警发现：沿旅游通道的地质灾害分布较为零散，造成珠峰景区的地灾危险性分布区较为破碎化。公路病害点的分布较为均匀，且集中分布于普那村、云加村、珠峰桥附近，与地质灾害点的分布趋势极为一致，说明定珠公路的公路病害点的发育在较大程度上受地质灾害的控制。从旅游安全通道风险探测结果看，安全区域离散分布在普那村至珠峰大本营路段的下半部分；一般危险区广泛分布；中等以上危险区分布较离散，集中于卧龙村、普那村、吉隆崩塌点和珠峰桥附近，其中的普那村中心位置为高危险区；全区高危险区仅分布于云加村和普那村附近。（2）设计了基于景观生态学和生态足迹法整合的区域旅游环境容量预警模型框架，提出了基于空间表达的旅游环境容量测算方法，即在景观生态学“基质-斑块-廊道”的理论框架下，将景区环境承载力所决定的旅游环境容量，用GIS专题制图来表现旅游环境容量的空间分配格局。结果表明：珠峰景区旅游环境日容量1128人次高于定日县城732人次。珠峰景区的潜在旅游环境容量和现实旅游环境容量均处于弱载状态。目前一年5.91万人次游客量远低于其旅游环境所能承受的17.29万人次；也低于其接待设施所能承受的34.24万人次。尽管目前的实际旅游人数小于潜在旅游环境容量（17.29万人次）和现实旅游环境容量（34.24万人次）。但是，目前现实容量大于潜在容量，使整个珠峰景区已处于过度开发状态，旅游设施的承载状态为17.3%。若长期超过50%，则有可能使景区的潜在旅游环境容量透支。（3）提出了高原反应预警方法。通过分析AMS与个体因素的关系，以及AMS与生理指标关系，发现人体的下血压（舒张压）、额温、血氧浓度等生命体征与海拔之间有显著的相关关系，并选择三者作为高原反应预警模型的输入因子。再通过模糊BP神经网络，计算得到三项生命体征与人体高原反应之间的定量关系，建立了“海拔-生命体征-AMS”模式的高原反应预警模型。预警模型得到的仿真结果空间化后，显示出研究区高原反应的空间分布。结果表明：在珠峰景区内，高原反应的高发区域是在加吾拉山口和珠峰桥至珠峰大本营路段两个区域，低发区域是山口周边的较低地势区和珠峰桥附近的一片低地区域，在空间格局上与高程的分布高度耦合。（4）提出了旅游安全风险探测器的概念，阐述了探测器的结构、功能、工作原理。旅游安全风险探测器分为三个子探测器：旅游环境容量风险探测器，旅游通道安全风险探测器，高原反应风险探测器，分别用于探测游客在珠峰景区可能面临的旅游环境过载风险、旅游通道潜在地质灾害和公路病害风险及发生高原反应的风险。根据旅游环境容量风险探测器输出的风险等级，对珠峰景区的旅游安全风险等级分三种情景进行模拟预警（旅游环境容量弱载、饱和与过载）。模拟结果表明：在空间分布上，仅弱载情景下，珠峰景区内会有极小的安全区分布，全区大部都是一般危险区；饱和与过载情景下，吉隆崩塌点至珠峰大本营区域为最危险区域；在饱和情景下，全区无高危区分布，大部地区为一般危险区，加吾拉山口-卧龙村、普那村和吉隆崩塌点附近、珠峰桥附近区域是中等危险区；而在过载情景下，全区均为中等以上危险区，仅有极小的一般危险区分布。珠峰景区在环境容量弱载、饱和、过载情景下，旅游安全风险逐渐升高。（5）论文搭建了西藏旅游安全预警的软件模拟环境，模拟实现高海拔地区旅游安全预警的工作流程，验证相关方法、模型的实用效果。系统使用VB.NET10+ArcGIS Server API For Silverlight v2.3技术开发，根据游客实时位置，利用三个风险探测器评估游客的旅游风险预警等级，在基于WebGIS的软件环境中进行情景模拟，以可视化手段展示旅游环境容量风险探测、旅游通道安全风险探测和高原反应风险探测的动态交互过程。
[Abstract]:Tourism safety is one of the main factors that restrict the healthy and rapid development of tourism industry in Tibet . The average altitude of Tibet Plateau is over 4000m , the rapid development of tourism resources and the environmental carrying capacity and tourist reception ability are outstanding ;
The tourism line is long and easy to be affected by the disasters , and the characteristics of the tourist light season are obvious , which leads to the high operating cost of the tourism management ;
However , the special geographical conditions in high altitude areas , the relatively backward infrastructure conditions and public service capacity are more vulnerable to the ability of Tibet ' s tourism industry to deal with security risks .

To improve the service quality of tourism , protect the tourists ' personal safety , protect the natural ecological environment is the basic guarantee for the sustainable development of the tourism industry in Tibet . Based on the characteristics of tourism risk in high altitude area , the paper studies tourism safety early - warning model based on space exploration , establishes a comprehensive evaluation method system of tourism safety based on spatial detection , and puts forward a set of methods of collecting , processing and analyzing tourism safety early warning information for the Tibetan Plateau . The research results not only serve the research area , but also provide an exploration way for the early warning of tourism safety in China and even the world high altitude area .

Because of the particularity of its geographical environment , the structure of tourism products is mainly such as hiking , adventure , imperial examination and other special tourism . The composing factors of tourism safety are obviously different from other scenic spots . In view of the key factors influencing the safety of the scenic spot , the paper identifies three main tourism safety risks of geological disaster , scenic spot bearing capacity and altitude reaction , and studies the corresponding early warning method .

( 1 ) The safety risk early warning method of tourism channel based on GIS space detection is put forward . The geological environment conditions , development characteristics , formation mechanism and harmfulness of typical debris flow and collapse disasters are analyzed and evaluated .
In the software of ArcGIS 9.3 , the spatial analysis modules such as buffer analysis , overlay analysis , spatial correlation analysis and spatial density analysis are used to integrate applications , and the tourism channel safety risk detection model based on geospatial modeling is created .
The general hazardous area is widely distributed ;
The distribution of the dangerous areas above the medium or higher is scattered , which is concentrated in the vicinity of Wolong Village , Puma Village , Jilong collapse point and Pearl River Bridge , where the central location of Puma Village is a high risk area ;
The high risk area of the whole area is distributed only in the vicinity of Yunjia Village and Puma Village .

( 2 ) Based on landscape ecology and ecological footprint method integrated regional tourism environmental capacity pre - warning model frame , the spatial distribution pattern of tourism environment capacity based on spatial representation is put forward .
However , the current actual capacity is more than the potential capacity and the total load bearing capacity of the tourist facilities is 17.3 % . If the long - term exceeds 50 % , it is possible to overdraw the potential tourist environment capacity of the scenic spot .

In this paper , the relationship between AMS and individual factors and relationship between AMS and physiological indexes are analyzed . The relationship between the vital signs and altitude of human body ' s lower blood pressure ( diastolic pressure ) , frontal temperature and blood oxygen concentration is found .

( 4 ) The concept of tourism safety risk detector is put forward , and the structure , function and working principle of the detector are expounded . The tourism safety risk detector is divided into three sub - detectors : tourism environment capacity risk detector , travel channel safety risk detector and high altitude reaction risk detector . The simulation results show that in the space distribution , there will be very little safety area distribution in the Pearl Peak area , and the large part of the whole area is the general dangerous area .
Under the condition of saturation and overload , the area of Jilong ' s collapse point to the Pearl Peak area is the most dangerous area ;
In the saturated scenario , there are no high - risk areas in the whole area , and the major areas are the general dangerous areas , and the nearby area near the Pearl River Bridge is the medium - risk area near the collapse point of the Kwu la Shankou - Wolong Village , Puthe Village and the Jilong collapse point ;
In the overload situation , the whole area is the medium or higher risk area , only a very small general dangerous area distribution . The risk of tourism safety gradually increases under the condition of weak environmental capacity , saturation and overload .

( 5 ) The paper sets up a software simulation environment for the early warning of tourism safety in Tibet , simulates the work flow of tourism safety early warning in high altitude area , verifies the relevant method and practical effect of the model . The system uses VB . NET10 + ArcGIS Server API For Silverlight v2.3 technology development . According to the real - time position of tourists , three risk detectors are used to assess the tourist risk pre - warning level . In the software environment based on WebGIS , scene simulation is carried out , and the dynamic interaction process of tourism environment capacity risk detection , tourism channel safety risk detection and altitude reaction risk detection is displayed by visual means .

【学位授予单位】：成都理工大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F592.7;X956

【相似文献】