以信息传播为基础的旅游需求建模与预测研究

发布时间：2018-05-14 02:21

本文选题：旅游需求 + 预测　；参考：《北京工商大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：旅游需求预测研究是旅游管理研究领域的一个重要组成部分。因旅游产品所具有天然的易逝性，，旅游产业的需求预测与规划就显得格外重要。旅游市场需求缘起主体是对旅游目的地进行的游客，受益方是旅游目的地旅游产品的供应商。游客与旅游产品供应商之间存在着必然的信息沟通以促成交易的发生。二者之间的信息传播与市场需求波动是研究的切入点。本研究首先回顾了以往学者的主要研究成果。研究从以往文献的发表数量特征、旅游需求预测方法问题、季节性分析与大事件影响下的旅游需求预测问题以及数据类型与预测精度问题等方面进行了文献的回顾与综述。在回顾与分析的基础上对旅游需求预测研究过程中所涉及的模型、方法进行了评述，随后分析、总结了研究可能的创新与突破方向。本研究着重讨论和分析信息传播与旅游需求变动之间的逻辑关系，并据此建立了一个旅游需求预测模型。讨论首先从讨论信息传播与需求产生之间关系开始，分析了信息传播对于市场需求变动的整体影响及可能的变化形式。随后分析了信息传播与旅游产品需求变动之间的关系，讨论了旅游信息传播的特点与旅游产品需求变化规律的特点。最后在讨论以往学者就以信息传播为基础的旅游需求预测模型的建模形式的基础上，对本研究所建立旅游需求预测模型的变量选择与模型数学方程形式确定问题上进行了分析。而后在这些分析的基础上终建立了一个以微分方程形式为主导的旅游需求预测模型。这个模型的建立完善了以往研究中关于信息波动影响效果方面的分析，补充了模型中关于信息传播方式变化等特征影响因素。在实证检验阶段，本研究利用1997年至2010年我国入境游市场整体数据以及入境游市场中美国、英国、日本三个细分市场的数据进行了需求预测计算分析。为了验证本研究所建立旅游需求预测模型的预测精度及预测稳定性，本研究还建立了四个被学者广泛使用的旅游需求预测模型作为对比模型。在需求预测计算的基础上使用绝对误差与MAPE两个指标作为模型预测精度的评判标准。通过对比研究的结果显示，本研究所建立的旅游需求预测模型在预测精度及预测稳定性上具有很强的优势，特别是在我国入境游整体市场部分的预测精度表现最为突出。最后，在预测模型计算结果的基础上对旅游产业未来的发展给出了可行的政策建议并讨论了本研究的不足与研究进一步的展望。
[Abstract]:Tourism demand forecasting is an important part of tourism management research field. Because of the natural perishable nature of tourism products, it is very important to forecast and plan the demand of tourism industry. The main body of the tourism market demand is the tourist to the tourist destination, and the beneficiary is the tourist product supplier of the tourism destination. There is a necessary communication between tourists and tourism product suppliers to facilitate the transaction. The information dissemination and market demand fluctuation between them are the starting point of the research. This study first reviews the main research achievements of previous scholars. In this paper, the quantitative characteristics of previous literatures, the methods of tourism demand prediction, the seasonal analysis and the prediction of tourism demand under the influence of major events, as well as the data types and prediction accuracy, are reviewed and summarized. On the basis of review and analysis, this paper reviews the models and methods involved in the research process of tourism demand forecasting, and then analyzes the possible innovation and breakthrough direction of the research. This study focuses on the discussion and analysis of the logical relationship between information dissemination and changes in tourism demand, and establishes a forecasting model of tourism demand. The discussion begins with the discussion of the relationship between information dissemination and the generation of demand, and analyzes the overall influence of information dissemination on the change of market demand and its possible forms of change. Then it analyzes the relationship between the information dissemination and the change of tourism product demand, and discusses the characteristics of tourism information dissemination and the characteristics of the changing law of tourism product demand. Finally, on the basis of discussing the modeling form of tourism demand forecasting model based on information dissemination, this paper analyzes the choice of variables and the determination of mathematical equation of tourism demand forecasting model in this research. On the basis of these analyses, a tourism demand forecasting model is established, which is dominated by differential equations. The establishment of this model improves the analysis on the effect of information fluctuation in previous studies and complements the characteristic factors such as the change of information transmission mode in the model. In the stage of empirical test, this study makes use of the overall data of China's inbound tour market from 1997 to 2010, as well as the data from the three sub-markets of the United States, Britain and Japan to carry out the demand forecast calculation and analysis. In order to verify the prediction accuracy and stability of the tourism demand forecasting model, four tourism demand forecasting models which are widely used by scholars are established as comparative models. On the basis of demand forecasting calculation, two indexes, absolute error and MAPE, are used as the criterion of model prediction accuracy. The results of comparative study show that the tourism demand forecasting model established in this paper has strong advantages in forecasting accuracy and stability, especially in the whole market of inbound tour in China. Finally, on the basis of the calculation results of the prediction model, some feasible policy suggestions for the future development of the tourism industry are given, and the shortcomings of this study and the prospect of the further research are discussed.
【学位授予单位】：北京工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F592.6

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