秦皇岛入境旅游需求影响因素及预测研究

发布时间：2018-05-14 07:20

本文选题：入境旅游 + 旅游需求　；参考：《燕山大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：入境旅游对于一个国家和地区经济的发展、综合实力的提高具有非常重要的意义。它可以增加外汇收入、带动就业、提高城市和地区的知名度。秦皇岛地理位置优越，交通便利，旅游资源丰富，但是在入境旅游接待量方面远远落后于青岛、大连等临近的海滨城市，因此研究秦皇岛入境旅游需求的影响因素并对秦皇岛入境旅游需求进行预测，对秦皇岛入境旅游需求市场的发展具有重要的指导意义。首先，综述了国内外研究现状，，界定和阐述了相关概念和理论，并从秦皇岛入境旅游供给与需求两个方面对秦皇岛入境旅游现状进行了深入分析。其次，在定性总结秦皇岛入境旅游需求主要影响因素的基础上，构建秦皇岛入境旅游需求的双对数线性模型，以韩国、日本、俄罗斯、美国四个主要客源国为研究样本，实证分析了影响秦皇岛入境旅游需求的主要因素，研究发现：客源国人均GDP、相对CPI、汇率等宏观经济变量以及重大突发事件等都不同程度的影响着秦皇岛入境旅游需求。再次，选取秦皇岛入境旅游需求预测指标，构建基于BP神经网络的入境旅游需求预测模型，根据1991-2011年的相关数据，预测了秦皇岛入境旅游需求的未来发展趋势，研究表明：秦皇岛入境旅游需求整体呈稳定上升趋势，但是，不同客源国来秦皇岛的入境游客增长率不均衡现象明显，尤其以俄罗斯来秦皇岛的游客增长率最快。最后，根据上述秦皇岛入境旅游需求影响因素的分析及发展趋势的预测，本文从发挥政府优势，重点开发目标市场，优化旅游消费结构、提升入境旅游接待质量四个方面提出扩大秦皇岛入境旅游需求的对策。
[Abstract]:Inbound tourism is of great significance to the economic development of a country and region and the improvement of its comprehensive strength. It can increase foreign exchange earnings, promote employment, and increase the visibility of cities and regions. Qinhuangdao has a superior geographical location, convenient transportation and rich tourist resources, but it lags far behind Qingdao, Dalian and other neighboring coastal cities in terms of inbound tourist reception. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the influencing factors of Qinhuangdao inbound tourism demand and forecast the Qinhuangdao inbound tourism demand market. First of all, it summarizes the domestic and foreign research situation, defines and expounds the related concepts and theories, and analyzes the current situation of Qinhuangdao inbound tourism from the two aspects of Qinhuangdao inbound tourism supply and demand. Secondly, on the basis of qualitative summing up the main influencing factors of Qinhuangdao's inbound tourism demand, a double-logarithmic linear model of Qinhuangdao's inbound tourism demand is constructed, with four major tourist source countries of Korea, Japan, Russia and the United States as the research samples. Empirical analysis of the main factors affecting Qinhuangdao inbound tourism demand, the study found that: the tourist country per capita GDP, relative to CPI, exchange rate and other macroeconomic variables, as well as major emergencies affect Qinhuangdao inbound tourism demand in varying degrees. Thirdly, select Qinhuangdao inbound tourism demand forecast index, construct the inbound tourism demand forecasting model based on BP neural network, and forecast the future development trend of Qinhuangdao inbound tourism demand according to the relevant data from 1991-2011. The results show that the inbound tourism demand of Qinhuangdao is increasing steadily, but the growth rate of inbound tourists from different countries is not balanced, especially the growth rate of Russian tourists to Qinhuangdao is the fastest. Finally, according to the above Qinhuangdao inbound tourism demand factors analysis and development trend prediction, this article from the government advantages, focus on the development of target markets, optimize tourism consumption structure, Four aspects of improving the quality of inbound tourism reception proposed to expand Qinhuangdao inbound tourism demand.
【学位授予单位】：燕山大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F592.7

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