中国旅游上市公司财务危机预警研究

发布时间：2019-04-26 08:26

【摘要】：经济全球化给中国企业带来前所未有的发展机遇,也带来了前所未有的挑战。中国旅游上市公司作为第三产业的重要组成部分,随着中国经济腾飞和第三产业的振兴,目前也处在一个高速发展的阶段。然而大部分旅游类上市公司高速发展的光环并不能掩盖部分公司因财务危机而导致的举步维艰,因此,中国旅游上市公司财务危机预警是一个非常值得研究的课题。企业兴衰转变是一个由量变到质变的过程,如果我们在财务危机潜伏期就能采用一定技术手段识别企业财务危机信号,并做出企业财务危机预警、制定相应的财务危机纠正措施,把问题解决在初始阶段,使企业走上健康的发展道路,就能使企业避免巨大经济损失。目前我国财务危机预警研究与实践基本上都是以全部上市公司为样本、使用共性的预警模型,几乎没有考虑到行业的差别和企业的差别。实际上不同行业可能会产生不同企业特征,不同企业特征可能会产生不同的风险特征,因此企业财务危机预警模型在设计之初就要考虑具有行业烙印的企业的特征,只有这样,预警模型才能更具有针对性,才能更具有实用性和有效性。其次,多数学者是以一个年份的历史财务数据进行预警研究,较少的考虑数据的时效性和趋势。本文在全面分析财务危机预警理论的基础上研究了中国旅游业发展的概况、行业发展特征,基于投资者视角提出适合中国旅游业的财务风险预警指标体系。然后采用灰色系统方法中GM(1,1)对中国旅游上市公司财务数据进行预测,得到财务指标预测值。最后运用AHP-模糊综合评价法进行综合评价,进而做出预警判断。
[Abstract]:Economic globalization brings unprecedented development opportunities to Chinese enterprises as well as unprecedented challenges. As an important part of the tertiary industry, China's tourism listed companies are in a high-speed development stage with the rapid development of the Chinese economy and the revitalization of the tertiary industry. However, the high-speed development of most of the listed tourism companies can not cover up the financial crisis caused by the financial crisis of some companies, therefore, the financial crisis early warning of Chinese tourism listed companies is a very worthy subject to be studied. The rise and fall of an enterprise is a process from quantity to qualitative change. If we can identify the signal of the financial crisis by some technical means in the latent period of the financial crisis, and make an early warning of the financial crisis of the enterprise, Making corresponding financial crisis correction measures, solving the problem in the initial stage, making the enterprise take the healthy development path, can make the enterprise avoid the huge economic loss. At present, the research and practice of financial crisis early warning in our country are almost all listed companies as samples, using the common early warning model, almost not taking into account the differences between industry and enterprises. In fact, different industries may produce different enterprise characteristics, different enterprise characteristics may produce different risk characteristics, so the early warning model of enterprise financial crisis should consider the characteristics of enterprises with industry brand at the beginning of design, only like this, Only then can the early warning model be more targeted, can it be more practical and effective. Secondly, most scholars use the historical financial data of one year to carry on the early warning research, less consider the timeliness and the trend of the data. Based on the comprehensive analysis of the early warning theory of financial crisis, this paper studies the general situation and characteristics of tourism development in China, and puts forward a financial risk early warning index system suitable for China's tourism industry from the perspective of investors. Then we use the grey system method GM (1,1) to forecast the financial data of Chinese tourism listed companies and get the forecast value of financial indexes. Finally, AHP- fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used for comprehensive evaluation, and then early warning judgment is made.
【学位授予单位】：沈阳航空航天大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F590.66;F224

【参考文献】