京津冀地区耕地集约利用空间格局及其影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-01-01 19:09

本文关键词：京津冀地区耕地集约利用空间格局及其影响因素分析　出处：《河北农业大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：城镇化进程加快和经济的快速发展,使得经济和人口对耕地的压力不断增加,耕地数量减少与农产品需求增加之间的矛盾加剧。在宜耕后备资源有限的情况下,提高耕地集约利用水平成为保障经济社会发展和农产品供给安全的有效途径。耕地集约利用空间格局分析是学者们关注的热点,现有研究侧重于对空间差异特征分析以及时空变化规律揭示等,对空间格局影响因素分析研究有待深入。京津冀地区是我国重要的粮食主产区,区域内资源禀赋和经济发展阶段的差异,使农业生产呈现出明显的地域性,耕地集约利用水平呈现地域分异。基于此,从人地关系角度入手,运用TOPSIS模型、变异系数法、Geo DA空间数据探索分析法等研究方法,对京津冀地区耕地利用状况、空间格局差异进行了系统分析;在此基础上,引入地理探测器模型,明确了造成现有空间格局的影响因素及其影响能力。得到以下结论:(1)2011年,京津冀地区耕地集约度均值为0.1632,区域内有54.7%的县域集约利用水平低于区域平均值;区域间差异显著,呈现“中南部高,西北部低”阶梯式分布特征以及“平原区高、山地丘陵区低”的分布特点。(2)2011年,京津冀地区耕地集约度全局Moran’s I指数为0.3507,通过置信度为99.9%的假设检验,表现为中等程度的空间集聚性,具有空间正相关性。局部自相关发现:H-H“热点”区域集中分布在太行山山前平原区、冀中南平原区的9个县(市),高值区的扩散效应不显著;L-L“冷点”区域主要分布在冀北山地、坝上高原以及冀西北间山盆地区21个县(区),该区域是今后耕地集约利用提升的重点区域。(3)从区域整体角度上看:京津冀地区耕地集约利用空间格局的核心影响因素为地形高程、交通、资源持续状况和地形坡度,影响能力值所占比例分别为18.22%、16.14%、14.51%和14.02%。分省市来看:影响耕地集约利用空间格局的核心因素构成在三省市间存在差异,北京市核心影响因素为交通、地形坡度、资源持续状况和地形高程,影响能力值占比分别为17.27%、16.79%、15.14%和14.90%;天津市为人口城镇化、交通和资源持续状况,影响能力值占比分别为23.88%、15.93%和12.21%,人口城镇化对天津市耕地集约利用空间格局具有明显的决定性影响能力;河北省为地形高程、交通、资源持续状况和地形坡度,影响能力值占比分别为17.87%、16.42%、14.10%和13.59%。不同区域耕地集约利用空间格局主导因素各异,由此建议,制定差别化的耕地利用管控策略,通过采取农地整治、加快土地流转、推进农村路网建设等措施,因地制宜,提升不同地区的耕地集约利用水平,缩小区域差异,以此化解不断突出的“人地矛盾”,助推京津冀地区耕地资源集约利用。研究结果可以为后续相关领域研究提供科研线索,也可以为制定差别化的耕地集约利用水平提升措施提供决策依据。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of urbanization and economy, the pressure of economy and population on cultivated land is increasing, and the contradiction between the decrease of cultivated land and the demand of agricultural products is intensified. Improving the level of intensive use of cultivated land has become an effective way to ensure the economic and social development and the supply of agricultural products. The spatial pattern analysis of intensive use of cultivated land is the focus of attention of scholars. The existing research focuses on the analysis of spatial difference characteristics and the revelation of space-time variation law, and the analysis of the influencing factors of spatial pattern needs to be further studied. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is an important grain producing area in China. The difference of resource endowment and economic development stage in the region makes agricultural production appear obvious regionality, and the level of intensive utilization of cultivated land presents regional differentiation. Based on this, we start from the angle of man-land relationship. Based on TOPSIS model and Geo DA spatial data exploration and analysis method, this paper makes a systematic analysis of cultivated land use status and spatial pattern difference in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area. On the basis of this, the influence factors of the existing spatial pattern and their influence ability are defined by introducing the geographical detector model. The following conclusions are obtained: 1) 2011. The average value of cultivated land intensity in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is 0.1632, and the level of intensive utilization of 54.7% counties in the region is lower than the regional average. The difference between regions is significant, showing "high in central and south, low in northwest" and "high in plain area, low in mountainous hilly area" in 2011. The global Moran's I index of cultivated land intensive degree in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area is 0.3507. through the hypothesis test of confidence degree is 99.9%, it shows that the degree of spatial agglomeration is moderate. There is a positive spatial correlation. Local autocorrelation shows that the "hot spot" area of the "hot spot" is concentrated in the plain area in front of the Taihang Mountains, and the diffusion effect in the high value area is not significant in 9 counties (cities) in the central and southern plain of Hebei Province. The L-L "cold spot" region is mainly distributed in 21 counties (regions) in the mountainous region of northern Hebei, the Bashang Plateau and the mountain basin area between the northwestern Hebei Province. This area is the key area of cultivated land intensive utilization in the future. From the overall point of view of the region: the core influencing factors of the spatial pattern of intensive use of cultivated land in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region are terrain elevation and traffic. The ratio of resource sustainability and topographic slope to the value of influence capacity was 18.22% and 16.14%, respectively. 14.51% and 14.02.In terms of provinces and cities: the composition of the core factors affecting the spatial pattern of intensive use of cultivated land is different among the three provinces and cities, and the core factors of Beijing are traffic and topographic slope. The proportion of resource sustainability and topographic elevation is 17.27%, 16.79% and 14.90%, respectively. Tianjin is characterized by urbanization, traffic and resource persistence, and the ratio of influencing capacity is 23.8883% and 12.21%, respectively. Population urbanization has obvious decisive influence on the spatial pattern of intensive utilization of cultivated land in Tianjin. Hebei Province for topographic elevation, traffic, resource sustainability and terrain slope, the ratio of influence capacity is 17.87%, 16.42%. 14.10% and 13.59. the dominant factors of the spatial pattern of intensive use of cultivated land in different regions are different. Accelerate land circulation, promote rural road network construction and other measures, according to local conditions, improve the level of intensive use of arable land in different areas, reduce regional differences, so as to resolve the "human-land contradictions". The research results can provide scientific clues for the subsequent research in related fields, and also provide the decision basis for formulating differential measures to enhance the level of intensive utilization of cultivated land in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.
【学位授予单位】：河北农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F323.211

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