经济“新常态”下农民工再迁移决策研究——基于全国流动人口动态监测数据的分析

发布时间：2018-01-03 10:23

  本文关键词：经济“新常态”下农民工再迁移决策研究——基于全国流动人口动态监测数据的分析　出处：《学习与实践》2017年07期 　论文类型：期刊论文

  更多相关文章： 农民工 经济新常态 就地留城 回流返乡 再迁移决策

【摘要】：文章使用2014年国家卫计委流动人口动态监测数据,在理论分析的基础上采用二元Logistic回归分析方法,探讨经济新常态下影响农民工再迁移决策的主要因素。研究结果表明:第一,农民工再迁移决策呈现代际差异,年龄与选择留城的可能性呈倒U形分布,46~59岁组农民工回流返乡可能性最大。第二,人力资本是强化农民工留城决策的重要因素,教育人力资本和技能人力资本对农民工留城决策有着显著的正向影响。第三,农民工再迁移意愿分布呈现"就业分化",建筑制造类行业农民工回流返乡可能性较大,个体工商类行业农民工就地留城意愿强烈;享有职工养老保险者更倾向于就地留城;收入越高,就地留城的可能性越大。第四,与子女同住和具有城市认同感的农民工更倾向于就地留城。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of mobile population dynamic monitoring of the State Health and Family Planning Commission in 2014, this paper adopts the method of binary Logistic regression analysis on the basis of theoretical analysis. This paper discusses the main factors that affect the decision of migrant workers' remigration under the new normal state of economy. The results show that: first, the decision of migrant workers' remigration presents intergenerational differences, and the age and the possibility of choosing to stay in the city are inversely U-shaped. 46 or 59 years old group of migrant workers returning home is the most likely. Second, human capital is an important factor to strengthen the decision of migrant workers to stay in the city. Educational human capital and skilled human capital have a significant positive impact on the decision of migrant workers to stay in the city. Thirdly, the distribution of migrant workers' remigration willingness presents "employment differentiation". The possibility of migrant workers returning to their hometowns in construction and manufacturing industries is great, and the willingness of migrant workers in individual industrial and commercial industries to stay in the city is strong; Those who enjoy employee pension insurance are more inclined to stay in the city; The higher the income, the more likely it is to stay in the city. 4th, migrant workers who live with their children and identify with the city are more likely to stay in the city.
【作者单位】： 华中科技大学社会学院;华中科技大学;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“流动人口市民化的风险评估与对策研究”(16BRK030) 武汉研究院项目“城市化进程背景下武汉市农民工市民化公共服务创新研究”(IWHS20173002)
【分类号】：C924.2;F323.6
【正文快照】： 一、引言自20世纪90年代末开始出现农民工“返乡潮”,到2004年东南沿海部分地区出现“民工荒”,学界认定这是经济不景气的特殊时点下“非常态”的农民工“被动回流”现象,不具有警示意义[1]。以至于在当前结构优化和动力转换的经济发展“新常态”背景下出现的农民工的“常态化，

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