职工养老保险对参保农民工消费水平的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-23 06:36

本文关键词： 养老保险农民工消费水平实证分析　出处：《华东理工大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：众所周知,养老保险对居民消费水平有着重要的影响,同时这也是国内外学者关注的重点,养老保险一方面能够保障居民未来退休后基本生活,减少未来不确定性风险,改善未来收入预期,降低预防性储蓄动机,进而有着挤出储蓄,促进消费的作用,另一方面缴费型的养老保险减少了居民的当期收入,当期收入的减少势必会对当期消费产生一定的抑制作用。以往研究大都关注养老保险对城镇居民或者农村居民消费的影响,然而伴随着我国城镇化进程的不断发展,逐渐涌现出农民工这一特殊群体,农民工群体不同于城镇居民或者农民居民,具有其自身的特殊性,农民工从农村转移到城市工作生活不仅是简单的空间地理位置的转移,还包括了消费方式的转变,而农民工在城市的消费水平是其自身融入城市的重要测量维度,其潜在的巨大的消费需求也是拉动城市经济发展的重要动力,因而研究城镇养老保险对农民工群体的消费影响对于促进农民工的城市融合,推动城市经济发展以及城镇化进程具有重要的意义。本文在回顾相关消费理论以及国内外研究文献的基础上,使用2014年全国流动人口动态监测数据,首先对农民工个体特性及基本消费情况进行了描述性统计,然后采用赫克曼样本选择模型,在控制了样本自选择偏误后,运用多元线性回归的方法实证分析了城镇企业职工养老保险对农民工家庭消费开支以及消费结构的影响。结果表明,农民工城市消费水平仍然较低,城镇企业职工养老保险对农民工家庭消费支出具有显著的促进作用,但是对其消费结构并没有起到改善作用,城镇养老保险对农民工消费需求的释放主要在食品消费支出方面,随着食品消费支出的增加,其消费恩格尔系数也在增加；城镇养老保险对不同收入分组的影响不同,城镇养老保险能够显著促进中低等收入农民工群体的消费支出,但是对于高等收入群体消费支出的影响不显著,城镇养老保险对于新生代农民工群体消费支出的促进作用大于老一代农民工群体；城镇养老保险对于未来倾向于在城市发展的农民工消费支出的影响更明显。文章进一步从城镇养老保险能够预防未来不确定性风险,改善农民工未来收入预期角度,城镇养老保险成为农民工城市购房、子女教育等消费门槛的角度以及城镇养老保险能够加强农民工城市身份认同进而促进城市消费的角度分析了城镇养老保险促进农民工城市消费的作用机理,最后在研究结论的基础上提出要进一步扩大养老保险制度的覆盖面,降低其养老保险待遇领取门槛,使城镇养老保险制度真正发挥其对农民工城市生活保障作用,降低未来不确定性风险的相关建议。
[Abstract]:As we all know, endowment insurance has an important impact on the consumption level of residents, and it is also the focus of domestic and foreign scholars. On the one hand, pension insurance can protect the basic life of residents after retirement. Reduce the future uncertainty risk, improve the future income expectation, reduce the precautionary savings motivation, and then have the role of squeezing out savings and promoting consumption. On the other hand, the contributory pension insurance reduces the current income of residents. The reduction of current income is bound to have a certain inhibitory effect on current consumption. Previous studies have focused on the impact of old-age insurance on the consumption of urban residents or rural residents. However, with the continuous development of urbanization in China, migrant workers gradually emerged this special group, migrant workers are different from urban residents or farmers, with its own particularity. The transfer of migrant workers from rural areas to urban work and life is not only the transfer of simple spatial geographical location, but also includes the change of consumption mode. The consumption level of migrant workers in the city is an important measurement dimension of their own integration into the city, its potential huge consumption demand is also an important driving force to stimulate the development of urban economy. Therefore, the study of urban old-age insurance on the rural migrant workers group consumption impact on the promotion of urban integration of migrant workers. It is of great significance to promote the development of urban economy and the process of urbanization. Based on the review of relevant consumption theory and domestic and foreign research literature, this paper uses the national mobile population dynamic monitoring data in 2014. First, the individual characteristics of migrant workers and the basic consumption of statistics were described, and then the Heckman sample selection model was used to control the sample self-selection error. Using the method of multiple linear regression, this paper empirically analyzes the effect of urban enterprise workers' pension insurance on peasant workers' household consumption expenditure and consumption structure. The results show that the level of rural migrant workers' urban consumption is still relatively low. Urban enterprise employee pension insurance has a significant role in promoting the household consumption expenditure of migrant workers, but it does not play a role in improving the consumption structure of migrant workers. Urban old-age insurance mainly releases the consumption demand of migrant workers in food consumption expenditure, with the increase of food consumption expenditure, its consumption Engel coefficient is also increasing; The effects of urban old-age insurance on different income groups are different. Urban old-age insurance can significantly promote the consumption expenditure of middle and low income migrant workers, but the impact on higher income groups is not significant. The role of urban old-age insurance in promoting the consumption expenditure of the new generation of migrant workers is greater than that of the old generation of migrant workers. The impact of urban old-age insurance on the future development of rural migrant workers in the future consumer expenditure is more obvious. The article further from the urban pension insurance can prevent future uncertainty risks. Improve the perspective of future income of migrant workers, urban old-age insurance become migrant workers urban housing. The angle of consumption threshold such as children's education and the view that urban old-age insurance can strengthen the urban identity of migrant workers and thus promote urban consumption analyzes the mechanism of urban old-age insurance to promote the urban consumption of migrant workers. Finally, on the basis of the conclusion of the study, it is proposed to further expand the coverage of the old-age insurance system, and to lower the threshold of receiving pension benefits. So that the urban old-age insurance system can really play its role in ensuring the urban life of migrant workers and reduce the uncertainty risk in the future.
【学位授予单位】：华东理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F842.67;F323.89

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