RCPs气候情景下三江平原典型流域耕地动态模拟

发布时间：2018-02-03 13:23

  本文关键词： 政府间气候变化专门委员会 RCPs情景 FLUS模型 耕地模拟 挠力河流域　出处：《农业机械学报》2017年10期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：选取三江平原典型流域挠力河流域为研究区,以1990、2002和2014年3期Landsat影像、DEM数据和社会经济统计资料等多源数据为基本信息源,结合3S技术,运用FLUS模型定量模拟代表性浓度路径情景系列(RCPs)下耕地动态变化特征。结果表明:24 a间挠力河流域的旱地面积变化幅度较小,水田面积持续增加,1990—2002年水田扩张剧烈,2002—2014年扩张速度趋于缓和;3个时点的旱地均沿东北-西南轴方向进行分布,主轴沿顺时针缓慢旋转,空间变化稳定,分布范围逐渐减小。水田沿东北-西南走向分布,1990—2002年其主轴逆时针旋转,后顺时针旋转至45.31°,整体分布较为离散,极化特征不明显;通过对比不同空间分辨率及时间尺度下模拟精度,确定最优模拟空间分辨率为200 m,最优模拟时间点为2038年;MESSAGE气候模式下,未来挠力河流域的旱地面积先减少后增加,水田继续维持扩张态势,2029年后面积将以2%速度逐年下降,其分布将更加聚集,主轴沿顺时针旋转,重心逐渐向东北方向进行偏移;AIM气候模式下,气候波动对水田的影响程度大于旱地,旱地面积持续缓慢增加,水田面积在波动中下降,空间分布的极化特征突出。
[Abstract]:A typical watershed of Sanjiang Plain was selected as the study area, and 3 Landsat images were taken in 1990 / 2002 and 2014 respectively. DEM data and social and economic statistics and other multi-source data as the basic information source, combined with 3s technology. The FLUS model was used to quantitatively simulate the dynamic change of cultivated land under representative concentration path scenarios (RCPs). The results showed that the variation of dryland area in the Naoli River basin was small during the period of 24 to 24 years. The paddy field area continued to increase and the paddy field expanded sharply from 1990 to 2002. In 2002-2014, the expansion rate tended to moderate. The drylands of the three time points are distributed along the northeast-southwest axis, the main axis rotates slowly clockwise, the spatial variation is stable, the distribution range decreases gradually, and the paddy field distributes along the northeast-southwest strike. From 1990 to 2002, the spindle rotated counterclockwise, and the latter rotated clockwise to 45.31 掳. The whole distribution was discrete, and the polarization characteristics were not obvious. By comparing the simulation accuracy of different spatial resolution and time scale, the optimal simulation spatial resolution is 200m, and the optimal simulation time point is 2038. Under the MESSAGE climate model, the dryland area of the Nao Lihe River basin will decrease first and then increase, and the paddy field will continue to expand. After 2029, the area will decrease at the rate of 2% year by year. Its distribution will be more concentrated, the spindle will rotate clockwise, and the center of gravity will gradually shift to the northeast direction. Under the AIM climate model, the impact of climate fluctuation on paddy field is greater than that on dry land, the dry land area increases slowly, the paddy field area decreases during the fluctuation, and the polarization characteristics of spatial distribution are prominent.
【作者单位】： 东北大学土地管理研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41671520)
【分类号】：F323.211
【正文快照】： 引言确保粮食安全是关乎国计民生的首要任务,而耕地是粮食生产的基本物质条件,其格局表征着生产要素的空间配置条件、粮食生产能力状况及利用可持续性,被认为是多要素的综合驱动结果[1-2]。从世界范围来看,城市化、人口增长和经济发展是影响耕地总量、人均耕地变化的重要因素[，

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