贸易成本对中国各地区农产品贸易增长的影响——基于可计算一般均衡模型的分析

发布时间：2018-04-20 19:46

本文选题：贸易成本 + 农产品贸易　；参考：《中国农村经济》2017年04期

【摘要】：本文通过构建世界八区域两部门CGE模型,并利用2002年和2010年中国区域投入产出表数据,研究了贸易成本对中国各地区农产品贸易增长的影响。研究发现:(1)中国农产品贸易成本存在显著的地区差异,但差异总体呈下降趋势;(2)贸易成本对中国各地区农产品贸易增长存在显著的负向效应,该效应在中国西北、西南和华中地区的表现较为明显;(3)贸易成本主要影响双边农产品贸易,而对第三方农产品贸易的影响并不大;(4)在其他条件不变的情况下,贸易成本下降至运输成本对中国区际农产品贸易和农产品对外贸易增长的贡献分别为35.79%和39.87%;(5)农产品对外贸易成本下降扩大了农产品贸易逆差,区际农产品贸易成本下降则缩小了农产品贸易逆差。
[Abstract]:This paper studies the impact of trade cost on the growth of agricultural product trade in different regions of China by constructing the CGE model of eight regions of the world and using the input-output table data of China in 2002 and 2010. The study found that there is a significant regional difference in the trade cost of agricultural products in China, but the difference generally shows a downward trend. (2) the trade cost has a significant negative effect on the growth of agricultural product trade in various regions of China, and the effect is in the northwest of China. The performance of southwest and central China is more obvious. (3) Trade costs mainly affect bilateral agricultural trade, while the impact on third party agricultural trade is not great. The contribution of trade cost to transport cost to China's interregional agricultural trade and agricultural foreign trade growth is 35.79% and 39.87% respectively. The decrease in the trade cost of interregional agricultural products has reduced the trade deficit of agricultural products.
【作者单位】：中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所;山东财经大学农业与农村经济研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“城镇化对中国经济增长与地区差距的影响”(项目编号:71403274) 中国农业科学院创新工程农产品市场与贸易团队子项目“贸易成本与中国农产品贸易发展”(项目编号:CAAS-ASTIP-IAED04-2017) 中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项项目“贸易成本、本土偏好与中国农产品贸易发展——基于国内与国外市场联动的考察”(项目编号:1610052016008)的阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：F323.7;F752.6

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