江西省临川区耕地利用变化驱动力分析及其预测研究

发布时间：2018-05-10 21:05

本文选题：临川区 + 耕地利用变化　；参考：《东华理工大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：土地资源是人类宝贵的资源,而且具有不可再生性,属于稀缺资源。虽然耕地资源只是土地资源中一部分,但是其对人类的生存和社会的发展都具有不可替代的作用。目前,随着经济的发展,城市化进程的加速,建设用地大量占用耕地,另一方面随着人口的增多,耕地的需求量也在加大,这就出现了耕地资源需求大于供给的矛盾。总的来说,耕地资源不管是在总体数量上还是人均面积上都在急剧下降,耕地资源变化的研究也在国内外广泛深入开展。本文的研究区域是中部城市的一个区,该区域一共有三十个乡镇。依据该区域1995-2012年的统计年鉴数据、2005-2012土地利用变更数据以及2012年临川区土地利用现状图数据对临川区的耕地利用变化进行分析。主要分析临川区耕地利用现状,然后从耕地利用数量变化、耕地利用空间差异变化、耕地利用程度变化三方面进行深入分析。在耕地变化全面深入分析的基础上,对临川区耕地利用变化驱动力因素进行定性分析,接着确定影响耕地利用变化的社会经济因素的指标,利用SPSS软件,采用主成分分析方法进行定量分析,最终得到临川区耕地利用变化的驱动因素有经济发展、人口压力、农业科技进步和农民种植积极性的结论。最后,利用临川区1995-2012年耕地面积数据,建立ARIMA模型,通过检验后,得到1995-2012年临川区耕地面积的拟合曲线并对临川区未来五年的耕地面积进行预测。预测结果表明:临川区未来五年的耕地面积呈现下降趋势。这主要由于临川区城镇化发展的同时又处于工业中期,需要开展大量建设,尤其是国家级省级重点项目的开展,导致建设用地占用耕地状况加剧,从而使耕地数量减少。在进行了上述定量分析的基础上,针对临川区耕地利用变化现状及特点,总结研究结论并提出在严格实行耕地保护政策、建立健全耕地保护经济补偿机制、加快耕地资源的信息化建设、重视农业技术的发展、加大土地开发整理力度、提高集约用地水平、增强民众耕地保护意识等方面的政策建议。
[Abstract]:The land resource is the human precious resources, and has the non-renewable, belongs to the scarce resources. Although cultivated land resources are only a part of land resources, they play an irreplaceable role in human survival and social development. At present, with the development of economy and the acceleration of urbanization, construction land occupies a large amount of cultivated land. On the other hand, with the increase of population, the demand for cultivated land is also increasing, which leads to the contradiction that the demand for cultivated land resources is greater than supply. In general, the cultivated land resources are decreasing sharply in both the total quantity and the per capita area, and the research on the change of cultivated land resources has been carried out extensively and deeply at home and abroad. The research area of this paper is a district of central city, which has 30 villages and towns. According to the statistical yearbook data from 1995 to 2012 and the land use change data from 2005 to 2012 and the land use status map data of Linchuan district in 2012, the cultivated land use change in Linchuan district was analyzed. This paper mainly analyzes the present situation of cultivated land use in Linchuan area, and then makes a deep analysis from three aspects: the quantity change of cultivated land use, the spatial difference of cultivated land use, and the change of cultivated land use degree. On the basis of comprehensive and in-depth analysis of cultivated land change, the driving force factors of cultivated land use change in Linchuan area are qualitatively analyzed, and then the social and economic factors affecting cultivated land use change are determined, and SPSS software is used. By using principal component analysis (PCA), it is concluded that the driving factors of cultivated land use change in Linchuan are economic development, population pressure, agricultural scientific and technological progress and farmers' enthusiasm for planting. Finally, based on the data of cultivated land area from 1995 to 2012 in Linchuan District, the ARIMA model is established, and the fitting curve of cultivated land area in Linchuan District from 1995 to 2012 is obtained, and the area of cultivated land in Linchuan District in the next five years is forecasted. The forecast results show that the cultivated land area in Linchuan district will decrease in the next five years. This is mainly due to the fact that the urbanization of Linchuan district is also in the middle of industry, so it is necessary to carry out a large number of construction projects, especially the development of key projects at the provincial level, which leads to the intensification of the cultivated land occupied by the construction land and the decrease of the amount of cultivated land. On the basis of the above quantitative analysis, in view of the present situation and characteristics of cultivated land use change in Linchuan, the paper summarizes the research conclusions and puts forward that the economic compensation mechanism of cultivated land protection should be established and perfected in strict implementation of cultivated land protection policy. To accelerate the information construction of cultivated land resources, to attach importance to the development of agricultural technology, to increase the intensity of land development and consolidation, to improve the level of intensive land use, to enhance the awareness of cultivated land protection and other policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：东华理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F323.211

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