长江中游地区粮食增长的结构变动分析——基于Shift-Share模型的分析验证

发布时间：2018-05-30 21:04

  本文选题：粮食作物 + 结构变动　； 参考：《农业技术经济》2016年08期

【摘要】：本文运用Shift-Share模型对长江中游四省的粮食作物结构内部优势与竞争力进行了比较,以分析粮食连年丰收背景下作物内部增长的结构与竞争差异。研究结果表明:长江中游水稻不具备结构性优势与竞争优势;小麦同时具有结构性优势和竞争优势;玉米具有结构性优势但是缺乏竞争优势;豆类、薯类无结构性优势,但是豆类由于单产水平提高表现出一定的竞争优势。从农作物内部结构看,2004年以来长江中游粮食作物播种面积基本保持在农作物总播种面积约62%的比例。其中四省水稻播种面积基本保持稳定,扩张空间有限;安徽和湖北小麦有较大幅度增长;除江西外其他三省玉米均呈现出上涨趋势。长江中游作为粮食主产区的重要组成部分,应当发挥自身资源与环境优势,从结构与竞争力出发,调整水稻生产品种结构、提高品质,积极支持安徽和湖北北部小麦生产,克服玉米生产限制性因子、提高单产水平,以进一步发挥区域作物结构优势,增加竞争优势。
[Abstract]:In this paper, Shift-Share model was used to compare the internal advantages and competitiveness of grain crop structure in four provinces in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, in order to analyze the structure and competition difference of crop growth under the background of harvest in successive years. The results show that rice in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River has no structural advantage and competitive advantage; wheat has both structural advantage and competitive advantage; maize has structural advantage but lacks competitive advantage; beans and potato have no structural advantage; However, beans show a certain competitive advantage because of the improvement of unit yield level. According to the internal structure of crops, the planting area of grain crops in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River has been kept at about 62% of the total planting area since 2004. The sown area of rice in four provinces remained stable and the expansion space was limited; wheat in Anhui and Hubei increased by a large margin; and maize in the other three provinces except Jiangxi showed an upward trend. As an important part of the main grain producing areas, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River should give play to its own advantages of resources and environment, start from the structure and competitiveness, adjust the structure of rice varieties, improve the quality, and actively support wheat production in Anhui and northern Hubei. The limiting factors of maize production should be overcome and the yield level should be improved in order to give full play to the advantages of regional crop structure and increase the competitive advantage.
【作者单位】： 华中农业大学经济管理学院;华中农业大学公共管理学院;
【基金】：中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金资助项目(编号:2662016PY060) 国家自然科学基金项目“不同农业耕作系统主要粮食作物产量限制性因子评估与重要限制因子作用规律研究”(编号:71203073);国家自然科学基金项目“经济社会双重转型下土地转换效率测度及效率改进政策调控原理研究”(编号:71573101)
【分类号】：F326.11
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本文编号：1956809