微观经济条件下基于农村人口转移行为的城镇化可持续性分析
发布时间：2018-09-18 14:20
【摘要】：农村人口向城镇的转移为我国的城镇化建设做出了突出的贡献,提高了我国的城镇化率。目前我国的城镇化率已经达到了世界平均水平,但与发达国家的城镇化发展水平还有较大差距。农村人口由于自身条件的限制大都在城镇的劳动密集型等替代率较高的低端行业就业。在市场经济条件下,随着我国的产业升级调整以及由经济建设期转变为经济运营期,农村人口在城镇低端行业的就业空间将不断被压缩,因而将影响我国城镇化发展的可持续性。 本文通过对影响我国人口转移行为的动因进行分析,明确了微观经济条件下影响我国农村人口向城镇转移行为的因素,并据此构建了我国的城镇化率数学模型。基于目前我国农村转移人口的平均水平对理想情况下我国的城镇化率进行了分析,并对市场经济条件下我国城镇化的可持续发展水平进行了预测,据此提出了提高我国城镇化可持续性的途径。以下是本文得出的结论： (1)本文根据农村人口向城镇转移的动因,确定了在微观经济条件下影响人口转移的三个因素即农村转移人口在城镇的收入,农村转移人口在城镇的支出以及转移意愿。 (2)基于影响因素的相互关系构建了我国的城镇化率预测模型。在不考虑转移意愿的理想情况下,得出基于目前我国转移人口在城镇的平均水平的理想城镇化率水平,并分析了各因素对预测模型的影响。 (3)通过对预测模型各要素的分析,明确了在市场经济条件下,在我国由经济建设向经济运营转变的经济条件下,我国农村人口因就业空间压缩将不能保证城镇化率增加的可持续性,农村人口向城镇转移的难度不断增大,进而不利于我国城镇化的可持续发展。并据此提出了在市场经济条件下,提高我国城镇化可持续性的途径。 通过从微观经济条件下基于农村人口转移行为对我国城镇化可持续发展的研究,希望为我国城镇化的良好发展提供理论依据,并能为我国的城镇化可持续发展的研究提供新的理论视角。
[Abstract]:The transfer of rural population to cities and towns has made outstanding contributions to the construction of urbanization in China and has improved the urbanization rate in our country. At present, China's urbanization rate has reached the world average level, but there is still a big gap with the developed countries' urbanization development level. The rural population is mostly employed in low-end industries with high labor-intensive substitution rate due to their own constraints. Under the condition of market economy, with the industrial upgrading and adjustment of our country and the transition from the period of economic construction to the period of economic operation, the employment space of the rural population in the low-end industries of cities and towns will be continuously compressed. As a result, it will affect the sustainability of urbanization development in China. Based on the analysis of the causes of the population transfer behavior in China, the factors influencing the transfer behavior of rural population to cities and towns under the microeconomic conditions are clarified, and the mathematical model of urbanization rate in China is constructed accordingly. Based on the average level of rural population transfer in China at present, this paper analyzes the urbanization rate in China under ideal conditions, and forecasts the sustainable development level of urbanization in China under the condition of market economy. Based on this, the author puts forward the ways to improve the sustainability of urbanization in China. The following are the conclusions of this paper: (1) according to the motivation of rural population transfer to urban areas, this paper determines the three factors that affect the population transfer under the microeconomic conditions, that is, the income of rural transferred population in cities and towns. (2) the forecast model of urbanization rate of our country is constructed based on the interrelation of influencing factors. Without considering the ideal situation of transfer willingness, the ideal urbanization rate level, based on the average level of transferred population in cities and towns in China at present, is obtained. The influence of various factors on the forecasting model is also analyzed. (3) through the analysis of the elements of the forecasting model, it is clear that under the condition of market economy and the economic condition that our country changes from economic construction to economic operation, The rural population in our country will not be able to guarantee the sustainability of the increase of urbanization rate because of the compression of employment space, and the difficulty of transferring rural population to urban areas is increasing, which is not conducive to the sustainable development of urbanization in China. On the basis of this, the paper puts forward the way to improve the sustainable urbanization of our country under the condition of market economy. Through the research on the sustainable development of urbanization in China based on the behavior of rural population transfer under the microeconomic conditions, the author hopes to provide a theoretical basis for the good development of urbanization in China. And can provide a new theoretical perspective for the study of sustainable development of urbanization in China.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F323.6;F299.21
本文编号：2248181
[Abstract]:The transfer of rural population to cities and towns has made outstanding contributions to the construction of urbanization in China and has improved the urbanization rate in our country. At present, China's urbanization rate has reached the world average level, but there is still a big gap with the developed countries' urbanization development level. The rural population is mostly employed in low-end industries with high labor-intensive substitution rate due to their own constraints. Under the condition of market economy, with the industrial upgrading and adjustment of our country and the transition from the period of economic construction to the period of economic operation, the employment space of the rural population in the low-end industries of cities and towns will be continuously compressed. As a result, it will affect the sustainability of urbanization development in China. Based on the analysis of the causes of the population transfer behavior in China, the factors influencing the transfer behavior of rural population to cities and towns under the microeconomic conditions are clarified, and the mathematical model of urbanization rate in China is constructed accordingly. Based on the average level of rural population transfer in China at present, this paper analyzes the urbanization rate in China under ideal conditions, and forecasts the sustainable development level of urbanization in China under the condition of market economy. Based on this, the author puts forward the ways to improve the sustainability of urbanization in China. The following are the conclusions of this paper: (1) according to the motivation of rural population transfer to urban areas, this paper determines the three factors that affect the population transfer under the microeconomic conditions, that is, the income of rural transferred population in cities and towns. (2) the forecast model of urbanization rate of our country is constructed based on the interrelation of influencing factors. Without considering the ideal situation of transfer willingness, the ideal urbanization rate level, based on the average level of transferred population in cities and towns in China at present, is obtained. The influence of various factors on the forecasting model is also analyzed. (3) through the analysis of the elements of the forecasting model, it is clear that under the condition of market economy and the economic condition that our country changes from economic construction to economic operation, The rural population in our country will not be able to guarantee the sustainability of the increase of urbanization rate because of the compression of employment space, and the difficulty of transferring rural population to urban areas is increasing, which is not conducive to the sustainable development of urbanization in China. On the basis of this, the paper puts forward the way to improve the sustainable urbanization of our country under the condition of market economy. Through the research on the sustainable development of urbanization in China based on the behavior of rural population transfer under the microeconomic conditions, the author hopes to provide a theoretical basis for the good development of urbanization in China. And can provide a new theoretical perspective for the study of sustainable development of urbanization in China.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F323.6;F299.21
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