基于灰色关联分析的海产品存货风险点识别研究

发布时间：2018-10-04 21:17

【摘要】：海产品存货生长在海底,风险管理难度较大。然而,有效识别出这类企业隐藏的风险点对其生存和发展却又非常重要。本文试图将灰色关联分析运用到海产品存货风险点的识别之中,具有创新性和实践性。在对风险导向型审计和灰色关联分析既有理论成果进行归纳阐述的基础上,本文首先分析了海产品存货风险的成因、风险难以识别的原因、风险识别的着手点及现有对策,依据灰色关联分析理论,提出了将灰色关联分析运用到海产品存货风险点识别的研究课题。其次,本文以识别海产品存货风险为导向,利用灰色关联分析找到风险可疑点可能发生的业务范围,据此启用相关实质性审计程序找到风险点确实存在的证据。最后,本文将基于灰色关联分析的海产品存货风险识别理论假说应用于獐子岛集团的存货事件中,证实其具有合理性和可行性,并进一步分析了獐子岛存货风险发生的原因和对策,以防止此类事件再次发生。本文创新性研究成果主要如下:第一,当不考虑价格发生变化等因素影响,收入能够代替捕获量作参考数列指标,影响收入的相关因素作为比较数列,通过反向利用灰色关联分析的趋势性,发现海产品存货存在的风险点。在獐子岛存货案例中,以营业收入作为标准指标,以营业成本、当年底播面积、当年累计海域面积、存货周转率作为影响营业收入的比较指标,在时间序列下,将比较指标分别与标准指标进行灰色关联分析,找到比较指标中偏离趋势的点,从而能够找到风险可疑点所在时间和指标的范围。第二,通过对风险可疑点指标及相关业务实施实质性审计程序,证明以海产品为主要存货的企业存在风险点。獐子岛案例中,发现虾夷扇贝的底播面积大幅扩张之后,营业收入却没有相应大幅度增长,说明大幅扩张的虾夷扇贝底播面积是一个风险点。第三,分析风险发生的原因,提高风险识别的敏感度,增强风险管理和控制的能力和效率。獐子岛案例中,采用灰色关联分析,找出了风险可疑点,通过对2011-2016年的营业收入及其相关因素进行调查研究,找出了风险形成的原因,例如内部控制环境,通过分析内部控制环境,发现獐子岛集团中存在的一人同时从事不相容职位、投苗控制活动不到位等缺陷,为企业的正常经营带来巨大风险,企业应提高风险识别的敏感度,增强风险管理和控制的能力和效率。
[Abstract]:Seafood inventory grows at the bottom of the sea, so risk management is difficult. However, it is very important to identify the hidden risk points for their survival and development. This paper attempts to apply grey correlation analysis to the identification of seafood inventory risk points, which is innovative and practical. On the basis of summarizing and expounding the existing theoretical results of risk-based audit and grey relational analysis, this paper first analyzes the causes of the risk of seafood inventory, the reasons for the difficulty of identifying the risk, the starting point of risk identification and the existing countermeasures. According to the theory of grey correlation analysis, the paper puts forward the research subject of applying grey correlation analysis to identify the risk points of seafood inventory. Secondly, based on the identification of seafood inventory risk, this paper uses grey correlation analysis to find out the business scope of suspicious risk points, and then uses the relevant substantive audit procedures to find the evidence of the existence of risk points. Finally, this paper applies the theory hypothesis of seafood inventory risk identification based on grey correlation analysis to the inventory event of Swertia Zidao Group, and proves its rationality and feasibility. Furthermore, the causes and countermeasures of inventory risk in Swertia Island are analyzed to prevent this kind of events from happening again. The innovative research results of this paper are as follows: first, income can replace catch as a reference series index, and the related factors that affect income can be used as comparative series when not considering the influence of price change and other factors. By using the trend of grey correlation analysis, the risk point of seafood inventory is found. In the stock case of Swertia Island, the operating income is taken as the standard index, the operating cost, the area under sowing at the end of the year, the area of the sea area accumulated in the current year, and the inventory turnover rate as the comparative indicators affecting the operating income. Under the time series, The grey correlation analysis between the comparison index and the standard index is carried out to find out the point of deviation from the trend of the comparative index, so as to find the time and the range of the risk suspect point. Secondly, through the implementation of the substantive audit procedure on the risk suspicious point index and related business, it is proved that there are risk points in the enterprises with seafood as the main inventory. In the case of Swerizi Island, it was found that the bottom sowing area of scallop was significantly expanded, but its operating income did not increase by a large margin, which indicated that the greatly expanded bottom sowing area of scallop was a risk point. Third, analyze the causes of risk, improve the sensitivity of risk identification, enhance the ability and efficiency of risk management and control. In the case of Swertia Island, the grey correlation analysis was used to find out the suspicious risk points. By investigating the operating income and its related factors in 2011-2016, we found out the reasons for the formation of risks, such as the internal control environment. By analyzing the internal control environment, it is found that one person in Swertia Island Group is engaged in incompatible positions at the same time, and the control activities of seedling casting are not in place, which brings huge risks to the normal operation of enterprises, and the enterprises should improve the sensitivity of risk identification. Enhance the capacity and efficiency of risk management and control.
【学位授予单位】：湖南科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F324;F274;F239.4

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