福建省县域土地资源人口—经济承载力研究
发布时间：2018-11-12 14:07
【摘要】：土地资源是资源环境的重要组成,土地资源人口-经济承载力是资源环境承载力评价的基础。为揭示福建省县域土地资源对人口、经济的综合承载现状,缓解全省土地资源承载压力,本研究基于福建省农用地分等更新与产能核算成果,以县域为基本单元,以耕地—城乡建设用地为承载体,以人口—经济为承载对象,运用单要素综合评价法对福建省2010年耕地资源人口承载力、城乡建设用地人口承载力以及建设用地经济承载力进行测算研究,同时基于2020年耕地资源规划保有量、城乡建设用地规划用地规模,预测2020年福建省耕地、城乡建设用地人口承载力,并在ArcGIS软件的支持下绘制相关空间区划图件。在以上研究成果基础之上,构建土地资源人口-经济综合承载力评价体系,运用主观层次分析与客观熵权法相结合的综合集成赋权法确定权重,采用多因素综合评价法对全省县域土地资源人口-经济承载力进行综合评价,旨在为福建省制定相关政策与规划提供参考,本文主要研究结论如下：(1)2010年福建省耕地资源人口承载力虽处于一般状态,但可承载人口规模与2010年人口规模基本持平,基本上不具备承载潜力。其中耕地资源人口承载潜力较大的县区主要集中于中部丘陵山地区、北部丘陵山地区；耕地资源人口承载力处于中度超载、严重超载状态的地区主要位于东南沿海地区。2020年全省耕地资源人口承载力处于中度超载状态,已不具备可承载潜力。其中耕地资源人口承载力尚具有较大承载潜力的县区主要位于中部丘陵山地区、西北部丘陵地区,面积较2010年有所减少；耕地资源人口承载力超载的县区主要集中于东南沿海地区,面积较2010年有所增加。(2)基于全省视阈,2010年城镇建设用地人口承载力处于临界状态,可承载城镇人口规模与2010年城镇人口规模基本持平。其中城镇建设用地人口承载潜力较大的县区主要分布于西部、东北部地区；城镇建设用地人口承载状态处于超载的县区分布相对较分散。2020年全省城镇建设用地人口承载力依旧处于临界状态,届时其承载潜力较大的县区主要位于东部和西北部地区,面积较2010年有所增加；其城镇建设用地人口承载力处于中度超载、严重超载状态的县区主要集中于东北部、中南部和西南部地区,面积较2010年有所增加。(3)2010年福建省村庄建设用地人口承载力处于一般状态,尚有26%的承载潜力。随着工业化、城市化进程的加快,农村“空心村”现象的日益显著,村庄建设用地的人口承载潜力越来越大,至2020年全省村庄建设用地人口承载潜力达34%,较2010年增加了8%,且处于中度超载、严重超载状态的县区仅占全省的6.0%,较2010年有所降低。(4)福建省2010年城镇建设用地经济承载力未超载,仍具有较大承载潜力。全省县区间经济承载力具有显著的差异性,沿海的地级市辖区和大部分沿海县级市较高,内陆山区县区较低。其中厦门市、福州市和泉州市三个福建省工业化、城市化程度最高的地区城镇建设用地经济承载度相对较高,其经济承载潜力相对较小；工业化、城市化程度较低的地区和内陆山区城镇建设用地经济承载力较小,其经济承载潜力相对较大。(5)运用多因素综合评价法对福建省2010年县域土地资源人口-经济承载潜力进行综合评价研究,研究结果显示全省84个县区土地资源对人口-经济的综合承载力基本上能够满足其县区发展的需求,其中除处于较高现实承载度—较低承载潜力的福州市辖区基本上不具备综合承载潜力之外,其余处于中现实承载度—中承载潜力、较低现实承载度—较高承载潜力、低现实承载度—高承载潜力县区的土地资源人口-经济承载力均具有一定的承载潜力。
[Abstract]:The land resource is an important component of the resource environment, and the land resource population-economic bearing capacity is the foundation of the evaluation of the bearing capacity of the resources. In order to reveal the current situation of the comprehensive bearing of the land resources in Fujian Province on the population and economy, and to alleviate the bearing pressure of the land resources of the whole province, this study is based on the results of the updating and the capacity accounting of the agricultural land of Fujian Province, taking the county as the basic unit, taking the land of the cultivated land and the urban and rural construction as the carrier, Taking the population-oriented economy as the bearing object, using the single-element comprehensive evaluation method to study the population bearing capacity of the cultivated land in 2010, the population bearing capacity of the urban and rural construction land and the economic bearing capacity of the construction land, The scale of land use planning for urban and rural construction is to predict the population bearing capacity of cultivated land and urban and rural construction land in Fujian Province by 2020, and draw relevant space area drawing pieces with the support of ArcGIS software. On the basis of the above research results, the evaluation system of the population-economic comprehensive bearing capacity of the land resources is constructed, and the weight is determined by the combination of the subjective level analysis and the objective entropy weight method. The comprehensive evaluation of the population-economic bearing capacity of the county land resources is carried out by the multi-factor comprehensive evaluation method. The aim of this paper is to provide a reference for the development of relevant policies and plans in Fujian Province. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) The population bearing capacity of the cultivated land resources in Fujian is in the general state in 2010. The population size, however, is substantially flat with the 2010 population size and is essentially free of bearing potential. The county district in which the population of the cultivated land resource bears the potential is mainly concentrated in the mountain area of the central part and the mountainous area of the northern part, and the bearing capacity of the cultivated land resource is in a moderate overload, The region with severe overload condition is mainly located in the southeast coastal area. In 2020, the population bearing capacity of the cultivated land in the whole province is in a moderate overload condition and has no bearing potential. The county district in which the bearing capacity of the cultivated land resource is still has a large bearing potential is mainly located in the mountain area of the central part, the hilly area in the north-west, and the area is reduced in 2010; the county area with the overload of the bearing capacity of the cultivated land is mainly concentrated in the southeast coastal area, and the area is increased in 2010. (2) Based on the visual threshold of the whole province, the population bearing capacity of the urban construction land in 2010 is in a critical state, and the scale of the urban population can be carried out to be basically the same as that of the urban population in 2010. The county district in which the population bearing potential of the urban construction land is larger is mainly distributed in the west and the north-east area, and the distribution of the urban construction land population is in an overloaded county area. The population bearing capacity of the urban construction land in the whole province is still in a critical state by 2020, The county area with a large bearing potential is mainly located in the east and the north-west area, with an increase in area compared with 2010; the population bearing capacity of the urban construction land in the urban construction land is in a moderately overloaded state, and the county area of the severe overload condition is mainly concentrated in the north-east, south-central and south-west areas, The area has increased in 2010. (3) The population bearing capacity of the village construction land in Fujian province is in the general state in 2010, and there are 26% of the bearing potential. With the acceleration of industrialization and the process of urbanization, the rural 鈥渉ollow village鈥，
本文编号：2327333
[Abstract]:The land resource is an important component of the resource environment, and the land resource population-economic bearing capacity is the foundation of the evaluation of the bearing capacity of the resources. In order to reveal the current situation of the comprehensive bearing of the land resources in Fujian Province on the population and economy, and to alleviate the bearing pressure of the land resources of the whole province, this study is based on the results of the updating and the capacity accounting of the agricultural land of Fujian Province, taking the county as the basic unit, taking the land of the cultivated land and the urban and rural construction as the carrier, Taking the population-oriented economy as the bearing object, using the single-element comprehensive evaluation method to study the population bearing capacity of the cultivated land in 2010, the population bearing capacity of the urban and rural construction land and the economic bearing capacity of the construction land, The scale of land use planning for urban and rural construction is to predict the population bearing capacity of cultivated land and urban and rural construction land in Fujian Province by 2020, and draw relevant space area drawing pieces with the support of ArcGIS software. On the basis of the above research results, the evaluation system of the population-economic comprehensive bearing capacity of the land resources is constructed, and the weight is determined by the combination of the subjective level analysis and the objective entropy weight method. The comprehensive evaluation of the population-economic bearing capacity of the county land resources is carried out by the multi-factor comprehensive evaluation method. The aim of this paper is to provide a reference for the development of relevant policies and plans in Fujian Province. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) The population bearing capacity of the cultivated land resources in Fujian is in the general state in 2010. The population size, however, is substantially flat with the 2010 population size and is essentially free of bearing potential. The county district in which the population of the cultivated land resource bears the potential is mainly concentrated in the mountain area of the central part and the mountainous area of the northern part, and the bearing capacity of the cultivated land resource is in a moderate overload, The region with severe overload condition is mainly located in the southeast coastal area. In 2020, the population bearing capacity of the cultivated land in the whole province is in a moderate overload condition and has no bearing potential. The county district in which the bearing capacity of the cultivated land resource is still has a large bearing potential is mainly located in the mountain area of the central part, the hilly area in the north-west, and the area is reduced in 2010; the county area with the overload of the bearing capacity of the cultivated land is mainly concentrated in the southeast coastal area, and the area is increased in 2010. (2) Based on the visual threshold of the whole province, the population bearing capacity of the urban construction land in 2010 is in a critical state, and the scale of the urban population can be carried out to be basically the same as that of the urban population in 2010. The county district in which the population bearing potential of the urban construction land is larger is mainly distributed in the west and the north-east area, and the distribution of the urban construction land population is in an overloaded county area. The population bearing capacity of the urban construction land in the whole province is still in a critical state by 2020, The county area with a large bearing potential is mainly located in the east and the north-west area, with an increase in area compared with 2010; the population bearing capacity of the urban construction land in the urban construction land is in a moderately overloaded state, and the county area of the severe overload condition is mainly concentrated in the north-east, south-central and south-west areas, The area has increased in 2010. (3) The population bearing capacity of the village construction land in Fujian province is in the general state in 2010, and there are 26% of the bearing potential. With the acceleration of industrialization and the process of urbanization, the rural 鈥渉ollow village鈥，
本文编号：2327333
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