基于强度分析的泉州市土地利用变化研究

发布时间：2019-02-16 00:47

【摘要】：土地变化是全球变化的重要组成部分和原因,是全球变化领域的重要研究方向之一,动态变化监测是理解土地变化的第一步。2015年国家提出了“一带一路”发展战略,泉州被联合国教科文组织认定为“海上丝绸之路”起点。本文以泉州市为例,以GIS叠置分析为基础,通过对比分析方法、数量差和分配差模型、强度分析方法、转移类别和转移数量模型,对泉州市土地变化进行分析。目的是为土地利用变化驱动力分析,以及土地变化预测模型的设计与改进提供更精确的信息。结果表明:(1)传统的数量分析模型只考虑了监测时段土地类型数量的变化,而忽视由于地类空间重分配引起的变化信息,即分配差。分配差在泉州市县域尺度地类变化中占很大比例,最小值发生在2005-2010年永春县,占土地总变化量的9%;最大值发生在1995-2000年金门县,占土地总变化量的86%。且泉州市县域尺度地类的数量差和分配差变化成明显的空间聚集现象,西北内陆山区分配差大于数量差,东南沿海地区数量差大于分配差。(2)强度分析方法从时间间隔层次、地类层次、转移层次层层深入的分析了地类的变化信息,将实际转换量与理论转换量进行对比,采用“快速的和缓慢的、平稳的和活跃的、趋向和避免”对土地利用转换规则进行判定,并对转换规则的稳定性进行定义,能够更客观的反应土地利用类型间的系统转换优势。以东南沿海地区建设用地变化为例进行说明:从地类层次来看,1995-2000、2000-2005、2005-2010年3个时间段内建设用地增加强度比各地类的平均变化强度大2.7%、2.9%、0.6%,减少强度比各地类的平均变化强度小2.7%、2.2%、1.9%,说明建设用地的增加是稳定的活跃的,建设用地的减少是稳定的平稳的;从转移层次来看,1995-2000、2000-2005、2005-2010年3个时间段内增加的建设用地对其它非建设用地的平均占用强度分别为1.7%、3.9%、3.1%,对耕地的年均占用强度为2.3%、5.1%、3.8%,大于建设用地对其它非建设用地的平均占用强度,说明增加的建设用地稳定的趋向于对耕地的占用。对林地的平均占用强度为0.5%、2.1%、2.3%,小于建设用地对其它非建设用地的平均占用强度,说明增加的建设用地稳定的避免对林地的占用。减少的建设用地向其它非建设用地的平均转出强度分别为0.3%、1.4%、1.6%,向耕地的年均转出强度为0.3%、1.6%、2.2%,大于建设用地的平均转出强度,说明减少的建设用地稳定的趋向于转换为耕地。向林地的年均转出强度为0.2%、1.3%、1.0%,小于建设用地的平均转出强度,说明减少的建设用地稳定的避免转换为林地。(3)转移类别和转移数量分析表明:泉州市1995年、2000年、2005年、2010年4个时间点内有59%的区域保持不变,22%的区域只发生了一次变化,12%的区域发生了两种地类之间的来回摆动变化,7%的区域发生了多种类之间的多次交换变化。
[Abstract]:Land change is an important component and cause of global change and one of the important research directions in the field of global change. Dynamic change monitoring is the first step in understanding land change. Quanzhou was recognized by UNESCO as the starting point of the Maritime Silk Road. Taking Quanzhou as an example, based on GIS superposition analysis, this paper analyzes the land change in Quanzhou by means of comparative analysis method, quantity difference and distribution difference model, strength analysis method, transfer category and transfer quantity model. The purpose is to provide more accurate information for the analysis of driving forces of land use change and the design and improvement of land change prediction model. The results are as follows: (1) the traditional quantitative analysis model only considers the change of land types in monitoring period, but ignores the change information caused by spatial redistribution of land classes, that is, the distribution is poor. The distribution difference accounts for a large proportion of the changes of land types in the county scale in Quanzhou, with the minimum occurring in Yongchun County from 2005 to 2010, accounting for 9% of the total land change, and the maximum value occurring in Jinmen County from 1995 to 2000, accounting for 86% of the total land change. In Quanzhou, the difference in quantity and distribution of land species in county scale changed into an obvious spatial aggregation phenomenon, and the distribution difference of northwest inland mountain area was greater than that of quantity difference. The quantity difference of southeast coastal area is larger than the distribution difference. (2) the intensity analysis method analyzes the change information of the ground class from the time interval level, the ground class level and the transfer level, and compares the actual conversion amount with the theoretical transformation amount. Using "fast and slow, steady and active, trend and avoid" to judge the land use conversion rules, and define the stability of the conversion rules, can more objectively reflect the system conversion advantage between land use types. Take the change of construction land in the southeast coastal area as an example: from the ground category level, the increasing intensity of construction land during the three periods from 1995 to 2000 to 2005 to 2010 is 2.7% higher than that of the average change intensity of the local categories. The decrease intensity is less than the average change intensity of each region category 2.7and 2.2and 1.9. it shows that the increase of construction land is stable and active, and the decrease of construction land is stable and stable; From the point of view of transfer level, the average occupation intensity of the increased construction land for other non-construction land during the three periods from 1995 to 2005 to 2010 was 1.73.9and 3.1respectively. The average annual occupation intensity of cultivated land is 2.3 / 5.1, which is larger than the average occupation intensity of construction land to other non-construction land, which indicates that the increasing construction land tends to occupy cultivated land stably. The average occupation intensity of the forest land is 0.5 / 2.1, which is smaller than the average occupation intensity of the construction land to the other non-construction land, which indicates that the increase of the construction land can avoid the occupation of the forest land stably. The average transfer intensity of the reduced construction land to the other non-construction land is 0.31.4 and 1.6, respectively, and the average annual transfer intensity to the cultivated land is 0.31.6 and 2.2. The average transfer intensity of the construction land is larger than that of the construction land, which indicates that the decreasing construction land tends to be converted into cultivated land. The average annual transfer intensity to the woodland is 0.2and 1.30.It is smaller than the average conversion intensity of the construction land. It shows that the reduced construction land should be steadily avoided from being converted into woodland. (3) the analysis of the transfer category and the quantity of transfer shows that 59% of the areas in Quanzhou City remained unchanged in 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010. Only one change occurred in 22% of the regions, 12% of the regions swung back and forth between the two types of land classes, and 7% of the regions experienced multiple exchange changes between multiple species.
【学位授予单位】：湖南科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F301.24

【参考文献】