产业融合对经济结构转型的影响：理论及实证研究

发布时间：2018-06-04 11:48

本文选题：产业融合 + 经济结构转型　；参考：《湖南大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,中国经济平均以每年接近10%的增长速度快速发展,创造了世界经济史上的奇迹。但快速的工业化与城市化进程导致经济发展严重不平衡与对资源环境的过度消耗。国家十二五“规划纲要”中明确指出：“我国经济发展中存在经济增长的资源环境约束强化,投资与消费关系失衡,收入分配差距较大,科技创新能力不强,产业结构不合理,城乡区域发展不协调,就业总压力与结构矛盾并存等问题。”由此,经济发展方式转变,尤其是经济结构转型成为急需解决的关键问题。“纲要”中提出构建扩大内需长效机制,发展战略性新兴产业、加快发展服务业,促进经济增长向依靠第一、第二、第三产业协同带动转变,促进区域良性互动与协调发展的经济发展方式转变的总路线。而产业融合作为一种新兴经济活动,其能有效的促进产业技术创新、形成新型竞争关系、降低经营运作成本以及提高效率,是促进经济结构转型的最有效的途径之一。因此,研究产业融合对中国经济结构转型的影响作用具有非常重大的现实意义。然而现有关于产业融合与经济结构研究的绝大多数要么只研究了产业融合现象,要么只分析了经济结构转型的重要性,很少有文献将产业融合与经济结构两者结合起来进行研究,即使有少数学者就产业融合对产业结构的影响进行了分析,但较片面且研究不深入,同时从实证分析的角度来研究产业融合对经济结构转型的少之甚少。本文正是试图为弥补这些不足而作出努力。本文在国内外关于产业融合与经济结构转型的相关理论基础之上,将从经济结构转型中的产业结构转型、要素结构转型、需求结构转型三个主要方面进行,分别分析产业融合对产业结构转型、要素结构转型、需求结构转型影响的作用机制,并通过实证分析来分别检验这种作用机制的效果,以期揭示产业融合在经济结构转型的重要性。本文首先基于投入产出分析模型中的直接消耗系数、需求系数、影响力系数与感应度系数来度量产业融合水平,并选取了高新技术产业、生产性服务业、信息产业三个产业的融合度来反映经济发展中产业融合水平。通过分析发现服务业主导下的产业融合水平总体较低,特别是生产性服务业与信息服务业的融合水平最低,并有下降趋势,服务业与第一、第二产业融合度较低,且服务业中知识技术密集型服务业融合相对传统服务业融合水平较低；制造业主导的产业融合水平总体也较低,技术密集型制造业的产业融合水平低于劳动密集型与资本密集型制造业,制造业与服务业并没有形成互动融合；中国各地区间的产业融合水平呈现明显差异,总体上东部地区产业融合水平较高,而中西部地区产业融合水平较低。其次,通过对产业结构的现状进行分析,并构建数理模型分析了产业融合对产业结构转型的作用,同时采用面板数据计量分析方法就产业融合对产业结构转型影响进行了实证检验。研究发现：目前我国产业结构呈现严重的不合理现象,如三次产业比例失衡,各产业内结构分布不合理；生产性服务业融合对我国产业结构转型产生促进作用；高新技术产业融合对我国产业结构转型产生不利影响；信息产业的直接融合有利于我国产业结构转型,而完全融合不利于我国产业结构转型,主要原因是信息产业融合与第三产业的融合度低于第二产业；收入水平与产业结构转型之间呈现“U”型曲线关系,对外开放、政府财政支出的提高对我国产业结构转型产生促进作用。再次,通过对产业融合与要素结构转型的研究发现：我国近些年资本不断深化,资本对经济增长的贡献率增加,而劳动力与技术的贡献率逐年下降。劳动力由第一产业向第二、第三产业转移,但更主要的是流向传统产业,流向技术密集型产业的较小。固定资产投资主要流入制造业、房地产业等行业,而对现代服务业的投入较小；生产性服务业融合与信息产业融合对我国就业结构影响较为显著,能有效的促进劳动力由第一产业和第二产业向第三产业转移,而高新技术产业融合对劳动力结构的影响不显著；产业融合对资本结构与资本深化产生显著的促进作用,即产业融合会促使资本向第三产业转移,并促进我国由劳动密集型向资本密集型发展模式转变;产业融合对我国全要素生产率的提升产生显著的促进作用,其中生产性服务业融合与信息产业融合对技术效率进步的影响较大,高新技术产业融合对技术进步的影响较大；人力资本、研究投入、市场化水平对要素结构转型有一定的促进效果。然后,通过对产业融合与需求结构转型的研究发现：我国需求结构存在严重的失衡,主要表现为最终消费率不断下降,资本形成率不断上升并最终超过最终消费率。居民消费率不足且有下降趋势,而政府消费支出比重不断上升；产业融合有利于提升我国最终消费需求率,降低投资需求率；生产性服务业融合对净出口率产生促进作用,而高新技术产业融合、信息产业融合对净出口率产生负作用；产业融合能有效的提升我国居民消费率,拉动我国内需,减少对外依赖程度。最后,通过对产业融合与产业结构的动态计量分析发现：产业融合与产业结构、就业结构、资本结构、能源结构以及区域经济结构之间存在长期的均衡关系,能有效的促进我国经济结构转型,但短期内还存在一些不合理的负向影响；产业融合有利于工业就业结构、资本结构与能源结构转型,产业融合对技术密集型工业的促进作用大于对资本密集型工业与劳动密集型工业的促进作用；科技创新水平、环境规制以及所有制结构等因素均有利于我国工业结构转型。本文的贡献主要体现在如下几个方面：首先,本文基于投入产出分析法中的直接消耗系数、需求系数、影响力系数以及感应度系数,并采用高新技术产业、生产性服务业、信息产业三个产业对我国产业融合水平进行了全面的分析；其次,本文构建了产业融合对产业结构、要素结构以及需求结构转型影响的数学理论分析模型,分析了产业融合对经济结构转型的影响作用；最后,本文采用多个指标从不同侧面对经济结构转型进行了度量,并用多种计量经济学模型就产业融合对我国经济结构转型的影响进行了全面的实证检验,相对已有的文献更具有现实指导意义。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening - up , China ' s economy has grown rapidly in nearly 10 % a year , creating a miracle in the history of the world economy . However , the rapid industrialization and urbanization process led to a serious imbalance of economic development and excessive consumption of resources .

Based on the theories of industrial integration and transformation of economic structure , this paper analyzes the mechanism of the transformation of industrial structure , the transformation of factor structure and the transformation of demand structure from three main aspects of transformation of industrial structure , transformation of factor structure and transformation of demand structure from the transformation of economic structure , and analyzes the effect of the mechanism of action by demonstration analysis , in order to reveal the importance of industrial integration in the transformation of economic structure .

Firstly , based on the direct consumption coefficient , demand coefficient , influence coefficient and inductivity coefficient in the input - output analysis model , the industrial convergence level is measured , and the integration level of the high - tech industry , the productive service industry and the information industry is selected to reflect the industrial convergence level .
Manufacturing - led industry integration level is also low , the industry convergence level of technology - intensive manufacturing industry is lower than that of labor - intensive and capital - intensive manufacturing , manufacturing and service industry do not form interactive fusion ;
The level of industrial fusion among the regions of China is obviously different , and the industrial fusion level in the east region is higher , while the level of industrial fusion in the central and western regions is lower .

Secondly , by analyzing the present situation of industrial structure and constructing mathematical model , the paper analyzes the effect of industrial convergence on the transformation of industrial structure . At the same time , the empirical test is carried out on the influence of industrial convergence on the transformation of industrial structure .
The integration of productive service industry can promote the transformation of industrial structure in China ;
The integration of high - tech industry has a negative impact on the transformation of industrial structure in China ;
The direct integration of the information industry is beneficial to the transformation of the industrial structure of our country , and the complete integration is not conducive to the transformation of the industrial structure of our country . The main reason is that the integration of the information industry and the integration of the third industry is lower than the second industry .
The relationship between the income level and the transformation of industrial structure is " U " curve , opening up to the outside world , and improving the government ' s financial expenditure to promote the transformation of industrial structure .

Thirdly , through the research on the transformation of industry integration and factor structure , the contribution rate of capital to economic growth is increased , and the contribution rate of labor and technology decreases year by year . The labor force is transferred from the first industry to the second and third industries , but more mainly to the traditional industries , to the smaller of the technology - intensive industries . The investment of fixed assets mainly flows into the manufacturing industry , the real estate industry and other industries , and the investment in the modern service industry is small ;
The combination of productive service industry and information industry has a significant impact on the employment structure of our country , which can effectively promote the transfer of labor force from the first industry and the second industry to the tertiary industry , and the impact of the high - tech industry integration on the structure of the labor force is not significant ;
Industry convergence promotes capital structure and capital deepening , that is , industrial convergence promotes capital to transfer to tertiary industry and promotes the transformation of capital - intensive development mode from labor - intensive to capital - intensive development mode .
Human capital , research input and market - oriented level have certain promotion effect on the transformation of factor structure .

Then , through the research on the transformation of industry integration and demand structure , we find that the demand structure of our country has serious imbalance , mainly shows that the final consumption rate is declining , the capital formation rate rises continuously and finally exceeds the final consumption rate .
Industry integration is conducive to the improvement of our country ' s final consumption demand rate , and reduce the investment demand rate ;
The integration of productive service industry contributes to net export rate , and the integration of high - tech industry and information industry has negative effect on net export rate ;
Industry convergence can effectively improve our country ' s residents ' consumption rate , pull domestic demand and reduce the extent of external dependence .

Finally , through the dynamic measurement and analysis of industrial integration and industrial structure , it is found that there is a long - term equilibrium relationship between industry integration and industrial structure , employment structure , capital structure , energy structure and regional economic structure , which can effectively promote the transformation of economic structure in our country , but there are some unreasonable negative effects in the short term ;
Industry integration is beneficial to industrial employment structure , capital structure and energy structure transformation , the promotion of industrial integration to technology - intensive industry is greater than that of capital - intensive industry and labor - intensive industry ;
Scientific and technological innovation , environmental regulation and ownership structure are beneficial to the transformation of industrial structure in China .

First , based on the direct consumption coefficient , demand coefficient , influence coefficient and inductivity coefficient in the input - output analysis method , this paper makes a comprehensive analysis on the industrial convergence level of our country by using three industries of high - tech industry , productive service industry and information industry .
Secondly , this paper constructs the mathematical model of the influence of industry integration on the industrial structure , factor structure and demand structure transformation , and analyzes the influence of industry convergence on the transformation of economic structure ;
Finally , this paper measures the transformation of economic structure from different sides by using a plurality of indexes , and carries on a comprehensive empirical test on the influence of industrial convergence on the transformation of China ' s economic structure with a variety of econometrics models .
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124;F121.3

【参考文献】