基于组合模型江西省能源需求预测

发布时间：2018-06-12 13:11

本文选题：江西省 + 能源　；参考：《景德镇陶瓷学院》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：一个国家要在世界站一席之地以及保证其人们的生活水平稳中求进，能源是重中之重。任何一个国家和地区的经济发展都离不开能源的支撑。在某种程度上来说，一个国家或地区的能源的生产和消费情况可以体现本区域的经济发展水平。近年来，伴随着信息化与城市化进程的加快以及我国经济迅猛发展，中国经济对能源的依赖越来越强烈，逐渐成为能源净进口国。在这种情况下，研究能源需求的影响因素并对其做出相对精确的预计，对于整个国家或地区制定长期能源发展战略和保障能源安全与经济可持续发展具有重要意义。当前，江西省正处于工业的中期阶段。国际、国内发展表明，，这既是工业化、城镇化加速发展阶段，也是资源和环境压力迅速上升时期。未来几十年江西省能源领域将面临着需求增大、供给下降、环境约束等挑战。对江西省能源需求和供给进行科学，准确地预测，有利于有效制定的未来几十年江西省能源发展规划，促进江西省经济的快速、平稳发展，构建和谐、节约、高效的社会，实现中国梦具有重要的理论及实践意义。近年来，很多学者对能源需求的预测进行了研究出了很多的预测方法。经常采用的有ARMA模型法、BP神经网络预测、趋势外推法、灰色系统法、指数平滑法、移动平均法等预测方法。不同预测方法各有其优缺点，他们之间并不是相互排斥，而是相互联系、相互补充的。本文将从江西省自身的能源条件以及能源供需关系等方面进行评价:首先了解江西省能源消费现状，分析能源与经济的相互关系；其次，运用数学软件构建线性回归模型、指数平滑模型、灰色模型、BP神经网络，预测1985年至2010年江西省能源消费量。
[Abstract]:Energy is the top priority for a country that has a place in the world and guarantees its people a stable standard of living. The economic development of any country and region is inseparable from the support of energy. To some extent, the energy production and consumption of a country or region can reflect the level of economic development in the region. In recent years, with the acceleration of information and urbanization process and the rapid development of China's economy, China's economy has become more and more dependent on energy and has gradually become a net importer of energy. In this case, it is of great significance for the whole country or region to formulate a long-term energy development strategy and ensure energy security and economic sustainable development by studying the influencing factors of energy demand and making a relatively accurate prediction. At present, Jiangxi Province is in the middle stage of industry. International and domestic development shows that this is not only industrialization, urbanization accelerated development stage, but also the rapid rise of resources and environmental pressure. In the coming decades, the energy sector in Jiangxi Province will face increasing demand, declining supply and environmental constraints. A scientific and accurate prediction of Jiangxi's energy demand and supply will be conducive to an effective energy development plan for the next few decades, promote the rapid and steady development of Jiangxi's economy, and build a harmonious, economical and efficient society. The realization of Chinese Dream has important theoretical and practical significance. In recent years, many scholars have studied a lot of forecasting methods for energy demand. ARMA model method and BP neural network prediction method, trend extrapolation method, grey system method, exponential smoothing method, moving average method and so on are often used. Different prediction methods have their own advantages and disadvantages, they are not mutually exclusive, but interrelated and complementary. This paper will evaluate the energy condition and energy supply and demand relationship of Jiangxi Province. Firstly, we will understand the current situation of energy consumption in Jiangxi Province, analyze the relationship between energy and economy; secondly, build a linear regression model by using mathematical software. Exponential smoothing model, grey model and BP neural network are used to forecast energy consumption from 1985 to 2010 in Jiangxi Province.
【学位授予单位】：景德镇陶瓷学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：O212.1

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