总量控制约束下区域用水结构调控策略及动态模拟

发布时间：2018-06-26 02:53

本文选题：用水总量控制制度 + 用水结构调控策略　；参考：《长江流域资源与环境》2015年01期

【摘要】：在既定水资源供给下,通过调控区域用水结构,提高用水效率与效益,使经济社会发展与用水总量限制的水资源约束相适应,是目前区域经济社会发展面临与亟待解答的关键科学问题。选择若干指标定量描述用水系统与社会经济系统耦合关系的基础上,以国民经济部门划分和用水主体划分相结合的方式,细化第一、二、三产业、生活和生态用水指标,建立了江苏省用水结构与产业结构、用水需求与经济社会发展指标互动反馈的模拟调控的系统动力学模型。在对当前发展模式下的江苏省用水总量发展趋势模拟预测分析基础上,选择对系统影响显著的参数作为调控变量,设计了5种对比情景,动态模拟水资源供求变化和用水结构变化情况,提出了江苏省用水总量控制下用水结构调控方案和对策,为区域落实最严格水资源管理制度提供决策依据。
[Abstract]:Under the given supply of water resources, by regulating the structure of regional water use, improving the efficiency and benefit of water use, the economic and social development can be adapted to the restriction of water resources, which is limited by the total amount of water used. Is the current regional economic and social development facing and urgent need to solve the key scientific problems. On the basis of the quantitative description of the coupling relationship between water use system and social economic system, the indexes of water use for the first, second and third industries, as well as for life and ecology, are refined by combining the division of national economic departments with the division of the main body of water. The system dynamics model of the interactive feedback between water use structure and industrial structure, water demand and economic and social development index in Jiangsu Province is established. On the basis of simulation prediction and analysis of the development trend of the total water use in Jiangsu Province under the current development model, the parameters that have a significant impact on the system are selected as the control variables, and five contrast scenarios are designed. This paper simulates the change of water supply and demand and the change of water use structure, and puts forward the scheme and countermeasures of water structure control under the control of total water use in Jiangsu Province, which provides the decision basis for implementing the strictest water resources management system in Jiangsu Province.
【作者单位】：河海大学公共管理学院;南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家实验室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51109055,51279223,51379119) 江苏省社会科学基金重点项目(11GLA001) 水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201301003;201201022) 国家软科学基金项目(2014GXS4B047)
【分类号】：TV213.4

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