运三线铁路运输需求分析与列车开行方案研究

发布时间：2018-06-27 03:57

本文选题：需求分析 + 列车开行方案　；参考：《兰州交通大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：在我国经济不断快速发展的情况下,铁路也经历着大规模的改进及发展。自上世纪九十年代,我国铁路经历了六次改革,主要体现在以下几方面,列车种类不断的增加;列车速度逐渐提升;铁路建设规模不断的扩大(新线、复线、客运专线);列车运输朝多元化发展(城际列车、夕发朝至列车、朝发夕至列车)。其中,新线的大规模建设,实现了铁路线路向区域网络化发展,同时实现了列车运行组织方式向合理规划型方式的跨越。本文以即将投入建设的运三线(运城至三门峡)为研究对象,主要的研究内容包括以下几个方面:第一,对运城至三门峡沿线区域的基本情况进行了详细的研究,在对运城-三门峡区域内的经济特征、交通网络现状和发展趋势进行分析的基础上,对运三线建设的必要性进行分析,认为运三线的建设将极大的改善地区运输局面,更好的促进区域经济发展。第二,运用传统的四阶段方法思想,通过对灰色模型、重力模型、Logit模型的研究及在数据预测过程中的适用性分析,对运三线的客货运量进行预测。首先采用函数模型法及增长率法对预测年全路客货运总量进行了预测,且采取灰色模型对预测年区域客运量和区域货运量进行了预测;其次采用重力模型及重力模型的改进模型对预测年区域趋势客运量和诱增客运量进行了预测;采用Logit模型及Logit改进模型对预测年区域转移客运量进行了预测,最后预测的运三线客运量即为趋势客运量、诱增客运量、转移客运量预测量的总和。第三,本文根据以上的预测量,对运三线列车开行方案进行研究。通过对列车开行方案影响因素的研究,制定列车开行方案。第四,建立元胞自动机模型,仿真模拟列车开行方案,研究了站间距与列车到发之间的关系,并逐步调整参数,使之符合线路的实际情况,从而得出有利于指导运三线开行方案编制的理论数据。本文的研究是基于运三线的实际情况进行的,可为运三线的开通提供科学的理论依据。运三线开通之后,本文所设计的列车开行方案同样适用之。
[Abstract]:With the rapid economic development of our country, railway is also undergoing a large-scale improvement and development. Since the 1990s, China's railway has undergone six reforms, mainly reflected in the following aspects: the continuous increase in train types; the gradual increase in train speed; the continuous expansion of the scale of railway construction (new lines, double lines, etc.) Passenger dedicated line); the development of train transportation towards diversification (intercity train, overnight train to train, morning to evening train). Among them, the large-scale construction of the new line realizes the development of the railway line to the regional network, and the leapfrogging from the train operation organization mode to the rational planning mode. The main contents of this paper are as follows: first, the basic situation of the area along Yuncheng to Sanmenxia is studied in detail. On the basis of the analysis of the economic characteristics, the present situation and the development trend of the transportation network in Yuncheng Sanmenxia area, the necessity of the construction of the third line is analyzed, and it is considered that the construction of the third line will greatly improve the regional transportation situation. Better promote regional economic development. Secondly, through the study of grey model, gravity model and logit model and the applicability analysis in the process of data prediction, the passenger and cargo volume of the third line is predicted by using the traditional four-stage method. First, the function model method and the growth rate method are used to forecast the total volume of passenger and freight in the forecast year, and the grey model is adopted to forecast the regional passenger volume and regional freight volume. Secondly, the gravity model and the improved gravity model are used to forecast the regional trend passenger volume and the induced passenger volume, and the logit model and logit improved model are used to predict the regional transfer passenger volume. Finally, the forecast passenger volume is the sum of the trend passenger volume, the induced passenger volume, and the transfer passenger volume forecast. Thirdly, according to the above forecast quantity, this paper studies the operation scheme of the third line train. Through the study of the influencing factors of the train operation scheme, the train operation plan is formulated. Fourthly, the cellular automata model is established, the train running scheme is simulated, the relationship between station spacing and train arrival and departure is studied, and the parameters are adjusted step by step to make it conform to the actual situation of the line. Thus, the theoretical data which is helpful to guide the preparation of the third line operation plan are obtained. The research in this paper is based on the actual situation of the third line, which can provide a scientific theoretical basis for the opening of the third line. After the opening of the third line, the train operation scheme designed in this paper is also applicable.
【学位授予单位】：兰州交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U292

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