“双转移”战略对广东外贸竞争力的影响研究
发布时间：2018-09-15 05:25
【摘要】：改革开放以来，广东省抓住了国际产业转移的大好机遇，经济迅猛发展，珠三角地区成为全国主要的经济中心。由于多年的快速发展，珠三角地区土地资源、环境承载力及高成本问题与经济发展的矛盾日益突出。加上用工成本上升、“民工荒”问题的出现及人民币持续升值，珠三角企业经营发展更为困难。2008年，受美国次贷危机引发的全球金融海啸影响，，珠三角外贸出口明显下滑，加工贸易企业订单减少，越来越多的外贸企业陷入经营困境。为了实现产业转型升级，优化对外贸易结构，促进区域经济协调发展，广东省提出了“双转移”战略，要求产业、劳动力在省内双向转移，实现外贸大省向外贸强省的转变。由于历史的原因、比较优势和路径依赖等多种因素，广东省经济带有鲜明的外向性特征。因此，广东省的任何一个重大的战略决策，都必须考虑对对外贸易发展及外贸竞争力的影响。 本文对“双转移”战略实施后广东产业结构、就业结构的变化进行了分析，建立了产业转移对外贸竞争力的影响机制，并运用灰色关联分析法测算了“双转移”战略对广东外贸竞争力的影响。研究结果表明，实施“双转移”战略是广东区域经济协调发展的必然要求，它不仅带来了广东产业结构的升级和就业结构的优化，还对广东外贸竞争力的提升起到了一定的推动作用，但是这种推动作用还不太明显。一方面因为这次大规模的“双转移”并不完全是市场行为，而是“看得见的手”宏观调控的结果，所以“双转移”过程中必然会出现操之过急、违背市场规律的现象。同时，“双转移”全面实施不久，遭遇全球规模的金融危机，接着爆发欧债危机，世界各国贸易保护主义盛行，严重影响了全球贸易发展，以欧美市场为主要出口目标的广东对外贸易发展遭受重创，同样阻碍了广东外贸竞争力的提升。 未来“双转移”战略的实施应尊重市场规律，搞清楚产业转移真正的内在动力是什么，不能以牺牲产业和外贸竞争力为代价。在推行产业转移时，可以考虑率先在产业区位条件良好、产业基础相对良好的东西两翼建设沿海经济带，再循序向粤北山区推进以便更有效的利用沿海区位优势与海外展开贸易。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, Guangdong Province has seized the excellent opportunity of international industrial transfer, the rapid economic development, the Pearl River Delta region has become the main economic center of the country. Due to the rapid development of many years, the contradiction between land resources, environmental carrying capacity and high cost and economic development in the Pearl River Delta region is increasingly prominent. In addition, the rise in labor costs, the emergence of the problem of "shortage of workers" and the continuous appreciation of the RMB make it more difficult for enterprises in the Pearl River Delta to operate and develop. In 2008, the Pearl River Delta's foreign trade exports fell significantly under the influence of the global financial tsunami triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States. Processing trade enterprises orders decreased, more and more foreign trade enterprises into business difficulties. In order to realize industrial transformation and upgrade, optimize the structure of foreign trade, and promote the coordinated development of regional economy, Guangdong Province put forward the strategy of "double transfer", which requires the two-way transfer of industry and labor force within the province to realize the transformation from a big foreign trade province to a strong foreign trade province. Due to historical reasons, comparative advantage, path dependence and other factors, Guangdong's economy has a distinct extroversion. Therefore, any major strategic decision in Guangdong Province must consider the impact on the development of foreign trade and foreign trade competitiveness. This paper analyzes the changes of Guangdong's industrial structure and employment structure after the implementation of the "double transfer" strategy, and establishes the mechanism of the influence of industrial transfer on the competitiveness of foreign trade. The influence of "double transfer" strategy on Guangdong's foreign trade competitiveness is estimated by grey relational analysis. The results show that the implementation of the "double transfer" strategy is an inevitable requirement for the coordinated development of Guangdong's regional economy. It not only brings about the upgrading of Guangdong's industrial structure and the optimization of its employment structure, The promotion of Guangdong's foreign trade competitiveness has played a role, but this role is not obvious. On the one hand, this large-scale "double transfer" is not entirely market behavior, but the result of "visible hand" macro-control. At the same time, shortly after the full implementation of the "double transfer", they encountered a financial crisis on a global scale, followed by a European debt crisis, and the prevailing trade protectionism in various countries of the world seriously affected the development of global trade. Guangdong's foreign trade, whose main export target is Europe and the United States, has suffered a heavy blow, which also hinders the promotion of Guangdong's foreign trade competitiveness. The implementation of the "double transfer" strategy in the future should respect the market law and find out what the real internal motive force of industrial transfer is, not at the expense of the competitiveness of industry and foreign trade. In promoting industrial transfer, we can consider taking the lead in building coastal economic zones on the east and west wings with good industrial location conditions and relatively good industrial base. In order to make use of the coastal advantage and trade with overseas, the mountain area of northern Guangdong is pushed forward in order to make more effective use of the coastal location advantage.
【学位授予单位】：广东外语外贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752.8
本文编号：2243910
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, Guangdong Province has seized the excellent opportunity of international industrial transfer, the rapid economic development, the Pearl River Delta region has become the main economic center of the country. Due to the rapid development of many years, the contradiction between land resources, environmental carrying capacity and high cost and economic development in the Pearl River Delta region is increasingly prominent. In addition, the rise in labor costs, the emergence of the problem of "shortage of workers" and the continuous appreciation of the RMB make it more difficult for enterprises in the Pearl River Delta to operate and develop. In 2008, the Pearl River Delta's foreign trade exports fell significantly under the influence of the global financial tsunami triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States. Processing trade enterprises orders decreased, more and more foreign trade enterprises into business difficulties. In order to realize industrial transformation and upgrade, optimize the structure of foreign trade, and promote the coordinated development of regional economy, Guangdong Province put forward the strategy of "double transfer", which requires the two-way transfer of industry and labor force within the province to realize the transformation from a big foreign trade province to a strong foreign trade province. Due to historical reasons, comparative advantage, path dependence and other factors, Guangdong's economy has a distinct extroversion. Therefore, any major strategic decision in Guangdong Province must consider the impact on the development of foreign trade and foreign trade competitiveness. This paper analyzes the changes of Guangdong's industrial structure and employment structure after the implementation of the "double transfer" strategy, and establishes the mechanism of the influence of industrial transfer on the competitiveness of foreign trade. The influence of "double transfer" strategy on Guangdong's foreign trade competitiveness is estimated by grey relational analysis. The results show that the implementation of the "double transfer" strategy is an inevitable requirement for the coordinated development of Guangdong's regional economy. It not only brings about the upgrading of Guangdong's industrial structure and the optimization of its employment structure, The promotion of Guangdong's foreign trade competitiveness has played a role, but this role is not obvious. On the one hand, this large-scale "double transfer" is not entirely market behavior, but the result of "visible hand" macro-control. At the same time, shortly after the full implementation of the "double transfer", they encountered a financial crisis on a global scale, followed by a European debt crisis, and the prevailing trade protectionism in various countries of the world seriously affected the development of global trade. Guangdong's foreign trade, whose main export target is Europe and the United States, has suffered a heavy blow, which also hinders the promotion of Guangdong's foreign trade competitiveness. The implementation of the "double transfer" strategy in the future should respect the market law and find out what the real internal motive force of industrial transfer is, not at the expense of the competitiveness of industry and foreign trade. In promoting industrial transfer, we can consider taking the lead in building coastal economic zones on the east and west wings with good industrial location conditions and relatively good industrial base. In order to make use of the coastal advantage and trade with overseas, the mountain area of northern Guangdong is pushed forward in order to make more effective use of the coastal location advantage.
【学位授予单位】：广东外语外贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752.8
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