人口老龄化对居民消费行为影响效应的实证检验

发布时间：2018-03-03 00:29

本文选题：人口老龄化　切入点：消费水平　出处：《统计与决策》2017年21期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：文章在世代交叠跨期最优消费理论的基础上,建立了人口老龄化与居民平均消费倾向之间的理论模型,运用山东省城镇居民1992—2015年的相关统计数据,利用协整、误差修正及VAR模型从城镇居民平均消费倾向、实际消费水平、消费结构等方面实证分析人口老龄化对居民消费行为的动态影响。结果表明:人口老龄化的加深是居民实际消费行为变化的原因;人口老龄化与山东省城镇居民平均消费倾向负相关;人口年龄结构与各类消费率均有显著影响,但影响的大小和方向有差异。老龄化与食品、衣着、家庭设备用品及服务消费率正相关,与居住、医疗保健、交通通讯消费率负相关。
[Abstract]:Based on the intergenerational optimal consumption theory, this paper establishes a theoretical model between the aging population and the average consumption tendency of residents, using the relevant statistical data of urban residents in Shandong Province from 1992 to 2015, and using cointegration. Error correction and VAR model from the average consumption tendency of urban residents, actual consumption level, The dynamic influence of population aging on residents' consumption behavior is analyzed empirically in consumption structure and other aspects. The results show that the deepening of population aging is the reason of the change of residents' actual consumption behavior; The aging population has a negative correlation with the average consumption tendency of urban residents in Shandong Province, and the age structure of the population has a significant impact on all kinds of consumption rates, but there are differences in the magnitude and direction of the effects. The consumption rate of household equipment and services was positively correlated, and negatively correlated with the consumption rate of residential, health care, transportation and communications.
【作者单位】：辽宁大学经济学院;山东工商学院数学与信息科学学院;
【基金】：山东省社会科学规划研究项目(15DJJJ14)
【分类号】：C924.24;F126.1

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