中国经济增长的长期趋势与经济新常态的数量描述

发布时间：2018-03-06 20:13

  本文选题：长期趋势　切入点：减速换挡　出处：《经济研究》2017年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文根据研究目的而构建GDP等宏观经济变量的协整系统,将简约的协整VECM模型转换为结构VECM,继而转换成包含有协整信息的VMA,通过VMA识别长期和短期冲击并分解长期趋势。根据长期趋势的演变和GDP的分布而推断经济新常态的数量特征。由此产生的主要结论为:GDP长期趋势呈现出结构性下移,其平均增幅从2001—2009年的9.88%,下降到2010—2014年的7.85%。这一结果揭示了2010年以来经济增长持续下降的源头,其隐含的意义之一是宏观经济形成了部分弱供给特征。基于长期趋势的结构性下移,本文推断长期趋势和GDP增速的取值范围,据此检验GDP增速服从截尾正态分布,由此计算GDP的长期趋势分布于5.5%—7.5%之间,GDP增速具有91.5%的概率稳定在6%—7.5%的区间。这一结论意味着,我国GDP增速的持续下滑将止于6%以上;GDP增长速度正在从10%左右减速至6%—7.5%之间,这是经济新常态的主要特征。
[Abstract]:This paper cointegration system GDP and other macroeconomic variables according to the research objective, the simple cointegration VECM model into VECM structure, and then converted to contain cointegration information VMA, VMA identified by long-term and short-term impact and decomposition of long-term trends. The quantitative characteristics of the new economic norm and inferred according to the distribution of GDP long term evolution and the trend of the main conclusions. The resulting GDP: long-term trend showing a structural downward, the average growth rate from 2001 to 9.88% in 2009, dropped to 2010 in 2014 - 7.85%. the results show since 2010 economic growth continued to decline in the source, meaning one of the implicit macroeconomic form part of the weak the supply of structural features. Based on the trend of long-term depression, this paper inferred the range of long-term trend and the growth rate of GDP, the test of GDP growth truncated normal distribution, the calculation of the GDP long term trend From 5.5% to 7.5% between the potential distribution, stable interval probability with 91.5% GDP growth in 6% - 7.5%. This conclusion means that the continued decline in China's GDP growth will be limited to 6% or more; between the GDP growth rate is slowing down from about 10% to 6% - 7.5%, which is the main feature of the new economic norm.

【作者单位】： 华中科技大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71671070)的资助
【分类号】：F124
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本文编号：1576305