转轨时期政府债务、财政赤字及经济增长的长短期动态研究——基于SVAR模型的实证分析

发布时间：2018-03-07 00:26

本文选题：转轨时期　切入点：政府债务　出处：《宏观经济研究》2017年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文利用SVAR模型对转轨时期我国政府债务、财政赤字和经济增长相互间的关系进行实证分析,分析结果显示:短期范围内我国政府债务对经济具有提升作用,但在长期,我国政府债务规模的持续膨胀将会阻碍经济的稳定健康发展。此外,政府债务对私人投资存在先挤入后挤出效应;通过进一步对模型中各经济变量进行方差分解发现,通货膨胀对财政赤字、国民生产总值及政府债务波动的解释程度最高,而赤字对其本身及国民生产总值的波动解释程度次高,财政赤字的波动受其他经济变量的影响较小,而其他经济变量对国民生产总值的影响比率大致相同;最后,根据我国目前的经济形势提出了转轨时期如何科学管理政府债务的相关建议。
[Abstract]:This paper makes an empirical analysis of the relationship among government debt, fiscal deficit and economic growth in the transitional period by using SVAR model. The results show that in the short term, the government debt of our country can promote the economy, but in the long run. The sustained expansion of government debt in China will hinder the steady and healthy development of the economy. In addition, the government debt has the effect of crowding in and out of private investment first, and by further analyzing the variance of each economic variable in the model, it is found that, Inflation has the highest explanation for the fluctuation of fiscal deficit, gross national product (GNP) and government debt, while the deficit has less effect on itself and GDP, and the fluctuation of fiscal deficit is less affected by other economic variables. At last, according to the current economic situation of our country, some suggestions on how to manage government debt scientifically during the transition period are put forward.
【作者单位】：首都经济贸易大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“债务的可持续度量指标及其促进经济增长内生机制的分析与比较研究”(14BJL030)的研究成果
【分类号】：F812.5;F812.4;F124.1

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