消费环境对我国消费增长的影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-09 12:25

本文选题：消费环境　切入点：消费增长　出处：《武汉大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在当前全球宏观经济增长疲软、投资和出口发展双双受限的形势下,持续有效扩大内需已成为各界共识。我国当前消费率偏低,消费拉动经济增长的潜力还没有完全释放出来,消费增长尚有较大的可提升空间。在收入转化为消费这一过程中,消费环境起着重要的作用,因此研究消费环境对消费增长的影响有着重要的意义。消费环境从研究层面可分为微观与宏观消费环境,囿于微观消费环境数据获取难度较大,故本文选择从宏观消费环境切入。依据毛中根建立的消费环境指标体系,考虑数据可得性,本文选取基础设施环境、消费金融市场环境与社会保障环境三个一级指标进行分析。对我国当前总体消费环境现状进行梳理分析,发现我国社会保障制度与就业制度的变革使得城镇居民面临较大的支出和收入不确定性,消费金融市场发展滞后、层次较低造成城镇居民流动性约束较大,基础设施建设水平的落后与区域性发展不平衡抑制了消费的增长。将我国分为四大区域对其消费环境现状作对比分析,发现东部地区消费环境最优良,其余依次为中部、东北、西部。基于生命周期-持久收入理论,使用我国31省市2000-2014年的省际面板数据,构建一个考虑消费环境的动态面板模型,采用系统广义矩估计方法,对我国消费环境与消费增长的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明:完善基础设施的建设,将显著促进城镇居民消费增长;完善我国消费金融市场建设,丰富消费信贷产品,将有助于降低居民流动性约束,拉动居民消费增长;完善我国社会保障体系建设,加大对居民的保障程度,将有助于弱化居民的预防性储蓄动机,释放居民消费潜能。此外,考虑流动性约束时,社会保障对消费的拉动作用增强,消费信贷和基础设施建设对居民消费增长的作用微微减弱;考虑收入与消费的内生性时,社会保险对消费增长的作用加强,基础设施建设和消费信贷对消费增长的作用减弱。研究结果表明,在当前我国宏观经济下行压力持续较大的形势下,完善优化居民消费环境可以大大释放居民的潜在需求,配合我国当前供给侧改革国策,稳定可持续的消费增长可以保障需求侧与供给侧的平衡,促进经济的持续稳定增长。
[Abstract]:In the current global economic growth is slowing, both investment and export development limited situation, continue to effectively expand domestic demand has become the consensus of all walks of life. China's current consumption rate is low, consumer driven economic growth potential has not been fully released, consumption growth still can be improved. In the process of income into consumption the consumption environment, plays an important role, is of great significance to the consumption environment so the study of the influence on consumption growth. The consumption environment from research level can be divided into micro and macro consumption environment, consumption environment due to micro data acquisition is difficult, so this paper select cut from the macro consumption environment. According to the environmental index system established by Mao Zhonggen consumption the consideration of data availability, this paper selects the infrastructure environment, consumer financial market environment and social security environment three indicators to carry on the analysis to me. Analyzing the current situation of overall consumer environment, found that China's social security system and employment system reform makes urban residents face greater expenditure and income uncertainty, consumer finance market development lags behind, the low level of liquidity constraints caused by the large urban residents, backward infrastructure construction and regional development imbalance in the level of inhibition the growth of consumption. China will be divided into four regions for comparative analysis on the consumption environment, consumption environment found in East China the most excellent, followed by the rest of the central, northeast, West. Life cycle lasting income theory based on the use of 31 provinces in China 2000-2014 years of provincial panel data to construct a dynamic model the panel considered the consumption environment, a System GMM Estimation on the relationship between consumption environment and consumption growth in China for empirical research. The results show that the perfect foundation The construction of the facilities, will significantly promote the growth of consumption of urban residents; improve the construction of China's consumer finance market, rich consumer credit products, will help reduce the residents liquidity constraints, stimulating consumption growth; perfecting the social security system, to increase the security level of residents, will help to weaken the residents the saving motive, release consumption potential. Moreover, considering the liquidity constraint, social security to stimulate consumption increasing, consumer credit and infrastructure growth of residents' consumption function slightly weakened; consider endogenous income and consumption, strengthen the social insurance on the role of consumption growth, weak infrastructure and consumer credit on consumption growth. The results show that, in the current downward pressure on China's macroeconomic situation continued large, optimizing the consumption environment can greatly release The potential demand of residents, combined with China's current supply side reform policy and stable and sustainable consumption growth, can guarantee the balance between demand side and supply side, and promote sustained and stable growth of the economy.

【学位授予单位】：武汉大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F126.1

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