北京市电力消费与经济增长的周期波动及关联度分析

发布时间：2018-06-05 12:50

本文选题：电力消费 + 经济增长　；参考：《北京化工大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：电力是社会生产和人们日常生活的重要投入品和必需品,同时也是国民经济发展和社会进步的重要基础。电力的短缺会影响国民经济各行业的正常运行,最终影响国民经济产值增长。基于此,本文研究了北京电力消费与经济增长的内在联系,旨在为北京地区电力政策的制定提供依据。本文以北京市1978-2012年实际数据为样本,分析了该段时期首都的电力消费情况,经济增长状况,以及各产业的结构变动情况；建立了灰色动态模型研究北京电力消费和经济增长的周期波动规律,旨在揭示二者的内在联系；同时从产业角度出发,运用关联度模型分析了二者的关联度。研究结果显示：北京市的电力消费波动总是领先于经济增长波动。对所求得的综合关联度进行排序,结果表明：①生活用电对北京全社会用电量影响程度和对经济增长贡献较大；②工业对电力消费影响程度较高,对GDP贡献率很低；③农林牧渔水利业对电力消费影响程度和对GDP的贡献介于二、三产业间；④批发零售贸易、餐饮住宿对电力消费影响较低,对GDP贡献位于工业之前；交通运输、仓储邮电通讯对GDP贡献和对电力消费的影响均很小。建议优化第三产业结构,控制第二产业发展,适当发展第一产业。
[Abstract]:Electric power is not only an important input and necessity of social production and people's daily life, but also an important foundation for the development of national economy and social progress. The shortage of electric power will affect the normal operation of various industries of the national economy and ultimately affect the growth of the national economic output value. Based on this, this paper studies the internal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Beijing, in order to provide the basis for the formulation of power policy in Beijing. Taking the actual data of Beijing from 1978 to 2012 as a sample, this paper analyzes the electricity consumption, economic growth and structural changes of various industries in the capital during this period. This paper establishes a grey dynamic model to study the periodic fluctuation law of Beijing electric power consumption and economic growth in order to reveal the internal relationship between the two and analyzes their correlation degree by using the correlation degree model from the angle of industry. The results show that the fluctuation of electricity consumption in Beijing is always ahead of the fluctuation of economic growth. The result shows that the power consumption of the whole society in Beijing is affected by the power consumption of 1: 1, and the industrial industry has a higher degree of influence on the electricity consumption and a low contribution to the GDP. (3) the influence of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and water conservancy industry on electricity consumption and its contribution to GDP are between the second and third industries, while the impact of catering and accommodation on electricity consumption is low, and the contribution to GDP is in front of industry. Storage posts and telecommunications to the GDP contribution and the impact on electricity consumption are very small. It is suggested to optimize the structure of the tertiary industry, control the development of the secondary industry, and develop the primary industry appropriately.
【学位授予单位】：北京化工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.61;F127

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