供给侧结构改革的经济增长效应--基于DSGE模型的初步构想

发布时间：2018-07-04 11:40

本文选题：供给侧结构性改革 + 经济增长　；参考：基于DSGE模型的初步构想

【摘要】：在中国经济新常态下,供给侧结构改革是突破增长瓶颈的正确路径,这迫切需要学界研究其经济增长的动态机制和时间框架,以坚定人们因增长效应的长期性而易动摇的改革信心,并能使政府根据结果预测及时调整改革政策。本文旨在初步建立一个可以动态分析和预测中国供给侧结构改革增长效应的DSGE模型(包括家庭、企业、RD、政策和贸易模型),根据改革引起的市场竞争性、产业转换成本、税负、RD支持、劳动力技能升级等方面经济指标的动态变化,依各经济主体的行为方式,在半内生增长范式下构建上述各模型的行为方程,从而确定需要校准的模型参数及参数校准方法,为后续研究(即根据中国宏观经济运行的历史数据采用校准法确定模型参数,检验模型的健壮性,并利用模型分析预测中国供给侧结构改革可能带来的短期、中期和长期经济增长效应)打好基础。
[Abstract]:Under the new normal state of China's economy, the reform of the supply side structure is the correct path to break through the bottleneck of growth. It is urgently needed to study the dynamic mechanism and time frame of its economic growth, in order to strengthen the confidence of the reform of the long-term and easily shaken reform of the people's growth effect, and to make the government root result forecast the timely adjustment of the reform policy. A DSGE model (including family, enterprise, RD, policy and trade model) that can dynamically analyze and predict the growth effect of China's supply side structure reform is established. The dynamic changes in economic indicators such as market competition, industrial conversion cost, tax burden, RD support, labor skill level and so on, are based on the actions of various economic subjects. In this way, the behavior equations of the above models are constructed under the semi endogenous growth paradigm, so as to determine the calibrated model parameters and parameter calibration methods, to determine the model parameters by the calibration method based on the historical data of China's macro-economy, to test the robustness of the model, and to predict the supply of China by model analysis. The short-term, medium-term and long-term economic growth effect that the side structure reform may bring will lay a good foundation.
【作者单位】：华南师范大学国际商学院;山东大学经济研究院(中心);
【基金】：山东省科技发展计划项目“财富管理平台与相关数据库建设”(2014GGX106008)
【分类号】：F121;F124.1

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